foxalgoApple (AAPL)
last quote 309.35 · as of 01:52 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T20:00:01.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.
AAPL · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 311.02 | 68.1% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 307.68 | 66.8% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 312.69 | 41.8% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 306.01 | 39.7% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 314.36 | 23.7% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 304.34 | 21.8% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 316.03 | 11.9% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 302.67 | 11.1% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 319.38 | 2.8% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 299.32 | 2.9% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 55.2% | 60.7% | 4,354 |
| 0.25 | 17.5% | 22.1% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4,354 |
Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).
AAPL · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up | down level | P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 311.02 | 68.1% | 307.68 | 66.8% | 4,354 |
| 0.5 | 312.69 | 41.8% | 306.01 | 39.7% | 4,354 |
| 0.75 | 314.36 | 23.7% | 304.34 | 21.8% | 4,354 |
| 1 | 316.03 | 11.9% | 302.67 | 11.1% | 4,354 |
| 1.5 | 319.38 | 2.8% | 299.32 | 2.9% | 4,354 |
Brackets
Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for Apple
mega-cap stocks
MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 316.34 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-10 | 311.51 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 312.47 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | 309.88 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | 308.94 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-14 | 310.41 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-17 | 310.50 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-18 | 311.78 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-19 | 314.29 | 41.8% | touched ✓ |
| 2026-08-20 | 321.65 | 41.8% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.