Meta Platforms (META)

TRACKINGMODEL FROZEN ✓Out-of-sample validated ✓Sector surface ✓QUOTE 16:00 ET

last quote 549.90 · as of 01:49 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T20:00:01.000Z)

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock. Live frozen scorecard accumulates from launch.

FOXALGO / META CANDLESTICK

TRACKING15m DELAYED MARKET DATALAST 549.9

META · CURRENT SESSION · 15m

View as table

level	price	P(touch)	status
+0.25 ATR	554.69	68.1%	not touched yet
-0.25 ATR	545.11	66.8%	not touched yet
+0.50 ATR	559.49	41.8%	not touched yet
-0.50 ATR	540.31	39.7%	not touched yet
+0.75 ATR	564.28	23.7%	not touched yet
-0.75 ATR	535.52	21.8%	not touched yet
+1.00 ATR	569.08	11.9%	not touched yet
-1.00 ATR	530.72	11.1%	not touched yet
+1.50 ATR	578.66	2.8%	not touched yet
-1.50 ATR	521.14	2.9%	not touched yet

today's range so far

10.64

high 553.87 / low 543.23 · n=27 bars

position in today's range

62.7%

0% = today's low so far, 100% = today's high so far — descriptive, not a signal

change from open

+3.0150

open 546.89

What's happening now

Regime of the day

day-width regime: not yet measured for stocks — no first-hit grid exists yet, so width_bounds.json has no tercile boundaries to compare against.

FOXALGO / META INSTRUMENT 02

Next hour

distance (ATR)	P(touch up, next 60m)	P(touch down, next 60m)	n
0.1	55.2%	60.7%	4,354
0.25	17.5%	22.1%	4,354
0.5	2.9%	3.4%	4,354

Measured from the 330-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.

Touch ladder

Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch by close 16:00 et).

FOXALGO / META INSTRUMENT 01

META · P(touch by close 16:00 ET)

distance (ATR)	up level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) up	down level	P(touch by close 16:00 ET) down	n
0.25	554.69	68.1%	545.11	66.8%	4,354
0.5	559.49	41.8%	540.31	39.7%	4,354
0.75	564.28	23.7%	535.52	21.8%	4,354
1	569.08	11.9%	530.72	11.1%	4,354
1.5	578.66	2.8%	521.14	2.9%	4,354

Brackets

Not measured for stocks — the first-hit grid (brackets.json) is futures-only.

Track record — wins & losses

Calibration for Meta Platforms

mega-cap stocks

MAE: 0.72 pp · n = 17,697,888

0-20%

predicted 3.6% · realized 3.8% · n = 11,815,483

20-40%

predicted 29.4% · realized 28.9% · n = 1,953,961

40-60%

predicted 50.2% · realized 49.5% · n = 1,588,144

60-80%

predicted 70.5% · realized 70.0% · n = 1,827,510

80-100%

predicted 82.8% · realized 82.5% · n = 512,790

Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.

Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)

Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.

date	level (open + 0.5 ATR)	P(touch)	result
2026-08-07	596.94	41.8%	touched ✓
2026-08-10	610.28	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-11	609.27	41.8%	touched ✓
2026-08-12	612.13	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-13	591.64	41.8%	touched ✓
2026-08-14	607.96	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-17	600.53	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-18	568.67	41.8%	not touched ✗
2026-08-19	552.82	41.8%	touched ✓
2026-08-20	556.85	41.8%	not touched ✗

Live frozen record

Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.

See all verified findings →