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Session Odds

For each trading session, the measured probability that price reaches a given ATR distance from that session's own open before the session closes. Measured, not predicted — read off the same touch-probability surface as every other page here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

ASIA● ends in 13m
LONDONopens in 13m
NEW YORKopens in 7h 43m

ASIA

Anchored at asia open, 20:00 ET — probability of reaching each ATR distance before the session ends at 02:00 ET (360 min). Measured from Asia's own open — not the prior close, not right now.

The session is running — the right-hand columns show what is still reachable from this point; the gap versus the open columns is what the session has already spent.

Index futures (ES / NQ / YM / RTY)

ASIA · +0.50 ATR (UP)
at open17.0%
right now1.0%
The session has already spent part of its opportunity.
distance (ATR)at openright now (330m in)
UPDOWNUPDOWN
0.165.7% n=10,86562.6% n=10,86520.8% n=10,08620.1% n=10,086
0.2536.5% n=10,86535.9% n=10,8655.8% n=10,0865.7% n=10,086
0.517.0% n=10,86518.2% n=10,8651.0% n=10,0861.4% n=10,086
0.759.8% n=10,86511.2% n=10,8650.3% n=10,0860.5% n=10,086
16.1% n=10,8657.2% n=10,8650.1% n=10,0860.2% n=10,086

Energy futures (CL)

ASIA · +0.50 ATR (UP)
at open2.3%
right now0.1%
The session has already spent part of its opportunity.
distance (ATR)at openright now (330m in)
UPDOWNUPDOWN
0.153.7% n=8,09952.8% n=8,0998.0% n=7,4728.5% n=7,472
0.2516.0% n=8,09916.1% n=8,0990.5% n=7,4720.7% n=7,472
0.52.3% n=8,0992.7% n=8,0990.1% n=7,4720.0% n=7,472
0.750.6% n=8,0990.8% n=8,0990.0% n=7,4720.0% n=7,472
10.2% n=8,0990.3% n=8,0990.0% n=7,4720.0% n=7,472

Metals futures (GC)

ASIA · +0.50 ATR (UP)
at open19.4%
right now1.2%
The session has already spent part of its opportunity.
distance (ATR)at openright now (330m in)
UPDOWNUPDOWN
0.176.3% n=9,32475.3% n=9,32434.5% n=9,22532.2% n=9,225
0.2547.6% n=9,32447.4% n=9,3247.8% n=9,2257.6% n=9,225
0.519.4% n=9,32420.3% n=9,3241.2% n=9,2251.3% n=9,225
0.757.3% n=9,3248.8% n=9,3240.4% n=9,2250.4% n=9,225
12.9% n=9,3244.2% n=9,3240.1% n=9,2250.2% n=9,225

FX majors

ASIA · +0.50 ATR (UP)
at open5.0%
right now0.1%
The session has already spent part of its opportunity.
distance (ATR)at openright now (330m in)
UPDOWNUPDOWN
0.160.9% n=8,52259.6% n=8,52212.5% n=8,52312.3% n=8,523
0.2524.0% n=8,52222.6% n=8,5220.7% n=8,5230.5% n=8,523
0.55.0% n=8,5224.9% n=8,5220.1% n=8,5230.1% n=8,523
0.751.2% n=8,5221.6% n=8,5220.0% n=8,5230.0% n=8,523
10.4% n=8,5220.6% n=8,5220.0% n=8,5230.0% n=8,523

Gold & silver CFDs (XAUUSD)

ASIA · +0.50 ATR (UP)
at open4.0%
right now0.2%
The session has already spent part of its opportunity.
distance (ATR)at openright now (330m in)
UPDOWNUPDOWN
0.163.1% n=1,26564.3% n=1,26519.9% n=1,26516.0% n=1,265
0.2525.6% n=1,26525.4% n=1,2652.9% n=1,2652.1% n=1,265
0.54.0% n=1,2655.5% n=1,2650.2% n=1,2650.4% n=1,265
0.751.3% n=1,2651.4% n=1,2650.1% n=1,2650.2% n=1,265
10.6% n=1,2650.5% n=1,2650.0% n=1,2650.1% n=1,265

LONDON

Anchored at london open, 02:00 ET — probability of reaching each ATR distance before the session ends at 08:00 ET (360 min). Measured from London's own open, independent of how Asia traded.

Index futures (ES / NQ / YM / RTY)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.177.3% n=11,11172.8% n=11,111
0.2547.1% n=11,11142.1% n=11,111
0.518.2% n=11,11118.3% n=11,111
0.757.7% n=11,1117.9% n=11,111
13.5% n=11,1113.9% n=11,111

Energy futures (CL)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.175.9% n=8,19177.8% n=8,191
0.2547.4% n=8,19149.6% n=8,191
0.518.5% n=8,19118.5% n=8,191
0.756.4% n=8,1916.5% n=8,191
12.1% n=8,1912.1% n=8,191

Metals futures (GC)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.179.9% n=9,44482.7% n=9,444
0.2555.5% n=9,44461.3% n=9,444
0.527.4% n=9,44432.8% n=9,444
0.7512.6% n=9,44416.1% n=9,444
15.8% n=9,4447.8% n=9,444

FX majors

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.173.7% n=8,52172.7% n=8,521
0.2541.6% n=8,52141.8% n=8,521
0.512.7% n=8,52113.2% n=8,521
0.753.8% n=8,5214.1% n=8,521
11.3% n=8,5211.5% n=8,521

Gold & silver CFDs (XAUUSD)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.167.0% n=1,26571.2% n=1,265
0.2532.8% n=1,26536.9% n=1,265
0.58.1% n=1,2658.8% n=1,265
0.752.1% n=1,2653.0% n=1,265
10.8% n=1,2651.2% n=1,265

PRE-NY

Anchored at pre-ny open, 08:00 ET — probability of reaching each ATR distance before the session ends at 09:30 ET (90 min). The US pre-market — measured from 08:00 ET (the 08:30 macro releases land inside this window) up to the 09:30 RTH open.

Index futures (ES / NQ / YM / RTY)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.157.6% n=11,51957.7% n=11,519
0.2522.1% n=11,51923.2% n=11,519
0.55.1% n=11,5195.3% n=11,519
0.751.5% n=11,5191.7% n=11,519
10.5% n=11,5190.6% n=11,519

Energy futures (CL)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.173.0% n=9,13874.6% n=9,138
0.2540.6% n=9,13842.6% n=9,138
0.512.0% n=9,13813.7% n=9,138
0.753.4% n=9,1384.1% n=9,138
10.9% n=9,1381.1% n=9,138

Metals futures (GC)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.178.0% n=9,56077.0% n=9,560
0.2551.6% n=9,56050.4% n=9,560
0.522.3% n=9,56022.2% n=9,560
0.759.2% n=9,5609.3% n=9,560
14.2% n=9,5604.4% n=9,560

FX majors

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.160.4% n=8,52159.5% n=8,521
0.2523.5% n=8,52123.7% n=8,521
0.55.6% n=8,5215.8% n=8,521
0.752.1% n=8,5212.0% n=8,521
10.9% n=8,5210.8% n=8,521

Gold & silver CFDs (XAUUSD)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.165.8% n=1,26568.2% n=1,265
0.2530.0% n=1,26530.8% n=1,265
0.57.8% n=1,2657.8% n=1,265
0.752.5% n=1,2652.6% n=1,265
10.9% n=1,2651.4% n=1,265

NEW YORK

Anchored at new york open, 09:30 ET — probability of reaching each ATR distance before the session ends at 16:00 ET (390 min). Measured from the 09:30 ET New York open through the 16:00 ET close.

Index futures (ES / NQ / YM / RTY)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.185.9% n=11,55684.7% n=11,556
0.2566.7% n=11,55664.9% n=11,556
0.539.6% n=11,55640.6% n=11,556
0.7521.0% n=11,55624.7% n=11,556
110.6% n=11,55615.0% n=11,556

Energy futures (CL)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.184.8% n=9,26986.5% n=9,269
0.2565.1% n=9,26966.2% n=9,269
0.539.5% n=9,26941.4% n=9,269
0.7522.0% n=9,26924.3% n=9,269
111.4% n=9,26913.4% n=9,269

Metals futures (GC)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.184.6% n=9,57684.9% n=9,576
0.2564.6% n=9,57664.6% n=9,576
0.538.4% n=9,57639.7% n=9,576
0.7521.8% n=9,57622.7% n=9,576
112.1% n=9,57613.2% n=9,576

FX majors

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.173.9% n=8,52373.2% n=8,523
0.2544.6% n=8,52344.2% n=8,523
0.515.5% n=8,52316.1% n=8,523
0.755.3% n=8,5235.9% n=8,523
12.2% n=8,5232.6% n=8,523

Gold & silver CFDs (XAUUSD)

distance (ATR)at open
UPDOWN
0.174.5% n=1,26574.8% n=1,265
0.2544.7% n=1,26544.8% n=1,265
0.518.7% n=1,26518.3% n=1,265
0.757.5% n=1,2657.3% n=1,265
13.5% n=1,2653.2% n=1,265