Daily wrap-up — 2026-09-07

Predictions are P(touch) on ±0.5 ATR, frozen before the session opens. This is a calibration check, not a directional "win" or "loss".

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

predictions

4 evaluated · 8 pending

mean predicted

39.9%

average P(touch) across evaluated predictions

realized share

25.0%

share of evaluated predictions that touched

calibration gap

-14.88 pp

realized share minus mean predicted

Brier score

0.200

mean squared error of predicted vs. outcome — lower is better, 0 is perfect

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Bitcoin	+0.50 ATR	37.9%	not touched
Bitcoin	-0.50 ATR	41.9%	touched
Ethereum	+0.50 ATR	37.9%	not touched
Ethereum	-0.50 ATR	41.9%	not touched

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Apple	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	pending
Apple	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	pending
Microsoft	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	pending
Microsoft	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	pending
Nvidia	+0.50 ATR	41.8%	pending
Nvidia	-0.50 ATR	39.7%	pending
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	+0.50 ATR	40.8%	pending
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	-0.50 ATR	42.0%	pending