Scenario finder — stocks
市場を選び、今日実際に起きたことをチェックしてください。たとえばギャップアップ、アジア時間で昨日高値を抜いた、などです。一致する事前検証済みの結果をすべて、実測率、ベースレート、サンプル数、信頼区間付きで表示します。ここで計算はしません。各行はすでに研究パイプラインの多重比較検証を通過しています。セクター横断のBonferroni補正と、相関クラスターのチェックです。詳しくは 手法 を参照。 Covers 51 symbols (ETFs, megacaps, and high-beta names).
測定済みのオッズ。売買指示なし。 意味 →
一致した結果
Top 20 findings by |delta| for SPY, matching the display filter.
| 条件 / 結果 | call | grade | 基準比率 | 差分 | 95% CI | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low | YES 88.3% | S | 88.3% 対 43.0% | +45.3 pp | [82.3%, 92.5%] | 154 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high | YES 87.9% | S | 87.9% 対 58.6% | +29.4 pp | [83.6%, 91.2%] | 282 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET | NO 83.0% | A | 17.0% 対 36.6% | -19.6 pp | [13.1%, 21.8%] | 282 |
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high | NO 81.8% | A | 18.2% 対 58.6% | -40.4 pp | [12.9%, 25.0%] | 154 |
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET | NO 81.8% | A | 18.2% 対 53.2% | -35.0 pp | [12.9%, 25.0%] | 154 |
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after noon ET | NO 81.8% | A | 18.2% 対 49.3% | -31.1 pp | [12.9%, 25.0%] | 154 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET | NO 81.6% | A | 18.4% 対 40.0% | -21.6 pp | [14.3%, 23.4%] | 282 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low | NO 81.2% | A | 18.8% 対 43.0% | -24.2 pp | [14.7%, 23.8%] | 282 |
| today's open sits in the bottom third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after 10:30am ET | YES 79.9% | B | 79.9% 対 40.0% | +39.9 pp | [72.8%, 85.4%] | 154 |
| the day opens with a gap up → price breaks yesterday's high | YES 78.5% | B | 78.5% 対 58.6% | +19.9 pp | [73.3%, 82.9%] | 279 |
| the day opens with a gap up → price breaks yesterday's low sometime after noon ET | NO 78.1% | B | 21.9% 対 36.6% | -14.7 pp | [17.4%, 27.1%] | 279 |
| today's open sits in the top third of yesterday's range → price breaks yesterday's high sometime after 10:30am ET | YES 78.0% | B | 78.0% 対 53.2% | +24.8 pp | [72.8%, 82.5%] | 282 |
| yesterday's range was wide vs. its own ATR band → today's range is wider than yesterday's range | NO 77.2% | B | 22.8% 対 48.9% | -26.1 pp | [16.5%, 30.5%] | 136 |
385 more findings for SPY are below the display threshold (|delta| < 8pp or n < 120) and are hidden.
CI手法: wilson score interval, 95%, computed on rate_held/n_held (ci_lo_held/ci_hi_held columns, unchanged). 出典: stock_conditional_tables.parquet;2026-09-02.