Daily wrap-up — 2026-08-18

Predictions are P(touch) on ±0.5 ATR, frozen before the session opens. This is a calibration check, not a directional "win" or "loss".

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

predictions

20 evaluated · 0 pending

mean predicted

40,4%

average P(touch) across evaluated predictions

realized share

15,0%

share of evaluated predictions that touched

calibration gap

-25,35 pp

realized share minus mean predicted

Brier score

0,191

mean squared error of predicted vs. outcome — lower is better, 0 is perfect

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
WTI Crude	+0.50 ATR	39,5%	not touched (reconstructed)
WTI Crude	-0.50 ATR	41,3%	not touched (reconstructed)
E-mini S&P 500	+0.50 ATR	39,7%	not touched (reconstructed)
E-mini S&P 500	-0.50 ATR	40,6%	not touched (reconstructed)
Gold	+0.50 ATR	38,4%	not touched (reconstructed)
Gold	-0.50 ATR	39,7%	touched (reconstructed)
E-mini Nasdaq 100	+0.50 ATR	39,7%	not touched (reconstructed)
E-mini Nasdaq 100	-0.50 ATR	40,6%	not touched (reconstructed)
E-mini Russell 2000	+0.50 ATR	39,7%	not touched (reconstructed)
E-mini Russell 2000	-0.50 ATR	40,6%	touched (reconstructed)
E-mini Dow	+0.50 ATR	39,7%	not touched (reconstructed)
E-mini Dow	-0.50 ATR	40,6%	not touched (reconstructed)

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Apple	+0.50 ATR	41,8%	touched (reconstructed)
Apple	-0.50 ATR	39,7%	not touched (reconstructed)
Microsoft	+0.50 ATR	41,8%	not touched (reconstructed)
Microsoft	-0.50 ATR	39,7%	not touched (reconstructed)
Nvidia	+0.50 ATR	41,8%	not touched (reconstructed)
Nvidia	-0.50 ATR	39,7%	not touched (reconstructed)
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	+0.50 ATR	40,8%	not touched (reconstructed)
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	-0.50 ATR	42,0%	not touched (reconstructed)