6B roadmap

Held era only (2,226 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-10) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

測定済みのオッズ。売買指示なし。意味 →

Current price: 1.3510 · ATR14: 0.0034 · 09:30 open: 1.3540

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3542	0.0002	89.3%	2,224	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	1.3538	0.0002	87.8%	2,224	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	1.3543	0.0003	76.8%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.3537	0.0003	76.9%	2,224	LIKELY
0.15	up	1.3545	0.0005	65.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.3535	0.0005	64.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.3547	0.0007	55.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	1.3533	0.0007	55.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.3548	0.0009	46.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.3531	0.0009	46.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.3550	0.0010	39.8%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.3530	0.0010	38.9%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.3554	0.0014	26.2%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.3526	0.0014	25.8%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3557	0.0017	17.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3523	0.0017	16.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3565	0.0026	6.0%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3514	0.0026	5.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3574	0.0034	2.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3506	0.0034	2.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	1.3591	0.0051	0.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	1.3489	0.0051	0.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	89.1%	2,224	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	—	—	88.6%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.10	up	—	—	78.5%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	77.1%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	—	—	68.3%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	—	—	67.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	up	—	—	58.1%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	—	—	58.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	—	—	49.8%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	—	—	50.8%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	42.3%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	—	—	43.0%	2,224	STRETCH
0.40	up	—	—	30.8%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	30.3%	2,224	STRETCH
0.50	up	—	—	20.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	21.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT
0.75	up	—	—	8.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT
0.75	down	—	—	7.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	—	—	3.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.00	down	—	—	3.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	—	—	0.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	—	—	0.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,225	0.39	0.44	0.55	0.69	0.91	1.17	1.38	1.90
0930	2,225	0.41	0.47	0.58	0.73	0.95	1.23	1.43	1.96
1030	2,225	0.45	0.50	0.62	0.80	1.04	1.35	1.52	2.09

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	55.9%	297
0.5-0.85	54.6%	1,117
0.85-1.05	55.3%	358
1.05-1.25	55.1%	198
>1.25	61.5%	208	moved since 2018

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3542	0.0002	89.6%	163	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.3543	0.0003	77.5%	89	SCENERY
0.15	up	1.3545	0.0005	59.8%	82	SCENERY
0.20	up	1.3547	0.0007	63.7%	113	PULLS
0.25	up	1.3548	0.0009	36.2%	94	REPELS
0.30	up	1.3550	0.0010	36.1%	97	SCENERY
0.40	up	1.3554	0.0014	23.8%	147	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3557	0.0017	14.2%	155	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3565	0.0026	5.7%	105	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3574	0.0034	0.0%	55	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.3591	0.0051	0.0%	24	PULLS
0.05	down	1.3538	0.0002	89.1%	128	SCENERY
0.10	down	1.3537	0.0003	79.8%	89	SCENERY
0.15	down	1.3535	0.0005	55.2%	105	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.3533	0.0007	51.0%	98	SCENERY
0.25	down	1.3531	0.0009	55.1%	107	PULLS
0.30	down	1.3530	0.0010	35.2%	105	SCENERY
0.40	down	1.3526	0.0014	23.0%	135	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3523	0.0017	15.8%	146	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3514	0.0026	4.4%	113	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3506	0.0034	2.1%	48	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.3489	0.0051	0.0%	14	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3542	0.0002	90.1%	142	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.3543	0.0003	82.6%	86	SCENERY
0.15	up	1.3545	0.0005	66.1%	65	SCENERY
0.20	up	1.3547	0.0007	52.1%	96	SCENERY
0.25	up	1.3548	0.0009	40.3%	72	SCENERY
0.30	up	1.3550	0.0010	36.6%	134	SCENERY
0.40	up	1.3554	0.0014	24.6%	187	SCENERY
0.50	up	1.3557	0.0017	13.6%	264	REPELS
0.75	up	1.3565	0.0026	6.2%	241	SCENERY
1.00	up	1.3574	0.0034	1.6%	186	SCENERY
1.50	up	1.3591	0.0051	0.0%	85	SCENERY
0.05	down	1.3538	0.0002	89.8%	98	SCENERY
0.10	down	1.3537	0.0003	80.4%	56	SCENERY
0.15	down	1.3535	0.0005	56.7%	60	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	1.3533	0.0007	46.2%	52	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.3531	0.0009	47.6%	42	SCENERY
0.30	down	1.3530	0.0010	36.5%	74	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.3526	0.0014	23.1%	65	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3523	0.0017	16.7%	84	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3514	0.0026	10.2%	59	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3506	0.0034	0.0%	24	SCENERY
1.50	down	1.3489	0.0051	0.0%	12	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3542	0.0002	92.4%	105	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.3543	0.0003	73.7%	76	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.3545	0.0005	71.4%	63	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.3547	0.0007	52.9%	51	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.3548	0.0009	48.9%	45	SCENERY
0.30	up	1.3550	0.0010	38.3%	60	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.3554	0.0014	29.2%	65	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3557	0.0017	14.1%	78	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3565	0.0026	13.3%	60	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3574	0.0034	3.0%	33	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.3591	0.0051	0.0%	12	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	1.3538	0.0002	89.6%	125	SCENERY
0.10	down	1.3537	0.0003	82.6%	86	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.3535	0.0005	67.9%	81	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.3533	0.0007	56.8%	88	SCENERY
0.25	down	1.3531	0.0009	43.6%	78	SCENERY
0.30	down	1.3530	0.0010	29.2%	120	REPELS
0.40	down	1.3526	0.0014	25.3%	178	SCENERY
0.50	down	1.3523	0.0017	11.8%	245	REPELS
0.75	down	1.3514	0.0026	5.7%	281	SCENERY
1.00	down	1.3506	0.0034	1.6%	185	SCENERY
1.50	down	1.3489	0.0051	1.3%	77	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3542	0.0002	91.9%	148	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.3543	0.0003	73.4%	94	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.3545	0.0005	66.7%	93	SCENERY
0.20	up	1.3547	0.0007	47.6%	82	SCENERY
0.25	up	1.3548	0.0009	43.6%	78	SCENERY
0.30	up	1.3550	0.0010	33.9%	109	SCENERY
0.40	up	1.3554	0.0014	27.3%	121	SCENERY
0.50	up	1.3557	0.0017	16.1%	149	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3565	0.0026	6.0%	134	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3574	0.0034	4.6%	88	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.3591	0.0051	0.0%	32	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.05	down	1.3538	0.0002	87.0%	100	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.3537	0.0003	83.9%	87	PULLS
0.15	down	1.3535	0.0005	60.4%	91	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.3533	0.0007	54.9%	91	SCENERY
0.25	down	1.3531	0.0009	54.7%	75	PULLS
0.30	down	1.3530	0.0010	29.8%	104	SCENERY
0.40	down	1.3526	0.0014	23.1%	121	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3523	0.0017	17.0%	159	SCENERY
0.75	down	1.3514	0.0026	4.3%	141	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3506	0.0034	5.0%	80	SCENERY
1.50	down	1.3489	0.0051	0.0%	25	SCENERY

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3542	0.0002	89.4%	141	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.3543	0.0003	74.1%	81	SCENERY
0.15	up	1.3545	0.0005	59.8%	82	SCENERY
0.20	up	1.3547	0.0007	51.8%	83	SCENERY
0.25	up	1.3548	0.0009	47.3%	74	SCENERY
0.30	up	1.3550	0.0010	36.4%	110	SCENERY
0.40	up	1.3554	0.0014	25.0%	132	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3557	0.0017	19.1%	157	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3565	0.0026	9.0%	122	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3574	0.0034	2.6%	77	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.3591	0.0051	0.0%	20	PULLS
0.05	down	1.3538	0.0002	90.0%	150	SCENERY
0.10	down	1.3537	0.0003	75.0%	80	SCENERY
0.15	down	1.3535	0.0005	62.8%	94	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.3533	0.0007	48.8%	82	SCENERY
0.25	down	1.3531	0.0009	45.9%	61	SCENERY
0.30	down	1.3530	0.0010	42.0%	119	SCENERY
0.40	down	1.3526	0.0014	27.1%	133	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3523	0.0017	13.1%	153	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3514	0.0026	4.6%	130	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3506	0.0034	4.6%	65	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.3489	0.0051	0.0%	16	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3542	0.0002	91.3%	218	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.3543	0.0003	72.2%	151	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.3545	0.0005	64.8%	162	SCENERY
0.20	up	1.3547	0.0007	59.1%	137	SCENERY
0.25	up	1.3548	0.0009	42.0%	100	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.3550	0.0010	41.7%	127	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.3554	0.0014	30.4%	92	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3557	0.0017	20.0%	70	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3565	0.0026	7.1%	28	PULLS
1.00	up	1.3574	0.0034	0.0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	up	1.3591	0.0051	—	0	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	1.3538	0.0002	90.0%	241	SCENERY
0.10	down	1.3537	0.0003	82.0%	172	PULLS
0.15	down	1.3535	0.0005	60.0%	160	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.3533	0.0007	54.6%	130	SCENERY
0.25	down	1.3531	0.0009	36.6%	131	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.3530	0.0010	39.5%	129	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.3526	0.0014	29.7%	91	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3523	0.0017	26.8%	56	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3514	0.0026	15.0%	20	PULLS
1.00	down	1.3506	0.0034	40.0%	5	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	49.8%	2,178	moved since 2018
up >0.20	68.9%	61	moved since 2018
up 0.10-0.20	62.6%	243
up 0.05-0.10	56.2%	324	moved since 2018
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	50.3%	950
dn 0.05-0.10	41.3%	322
dn 0.10-0.20	37.7%	228
dn >0.20	24.0%	50

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	40.4%	2,224
RTH low is final by 10:30	40.4%	2,224
Both high and low final by 10:30	4.5%	2,224
Low comes before high (full day)	50.4%	2,224
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	50.8%	2,224

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.8%	10,513	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	62.4%	5,917	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	65.1%	1,065	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	57.8%	206	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	67.2%	61	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	84.2%	19
[1.5,2.0)	66.7%	9
>=2.0	100.0%	2

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.