6B roadmap

Held era only (2,226 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-10) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 1.3328 · ATR14: 0.0039 · 09:30 open: 1.3295

Every probability below is measured on 2018-01-01 onward only (the most recent regime), never on the pooled full history: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 period and 2018 onward, so only the recent number ships. The era flag marks a cell that moved between the two periods -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3297	0.0002	89.3%	2,224	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	1.3293	0.0002	87.8%	2,224	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	1.3299	0.0004	76.8%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.3291	0.0004	76.9%	2,224	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	1.3301	0.0006	65.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.3289	0.0006	64.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.3303	0.0008	55.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	1.3287	0.0008	55.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.3305	0.0010	46.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.3285	0.0010	46.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.3307	0.0012	39.8%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.3283	0.0012	38.9%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.3311	0.0016	26.2%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.3279	0.0016	25.8%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3315	0.0020	17.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3275	0.0020	16.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3324	0.0029	6.0%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3266	0.0029	5.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3334	0.0039	2.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3256	0.0039	2.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	1.3354	0.0059	0.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	1.3236	0.0059	0.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	89.1%	2,224	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	—	—	88.6%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.10	up	—	—	78.5%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	77.1%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	—	—	68.3%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	—	—	67.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	up	—	—	58.1%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	—	—	58.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	—	—	49.8%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	—	—	50.8%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	42.3%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	—	—	43.0%	2,224	STRETCH	—
0.40	up	—	—	30.8%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	30.3%	2,224	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	—	—	20.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	21.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	up	—	—	8.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	—	—	7.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	—	—	3.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	—	—	3.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	—	—	0.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	—	—	0.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,225	0.39	0.44	0.55	0.69	0.91	1.17	1.38	1.90
0930	2,225	0.41	0.47	0.58	0.73	0.95	1.23	1.43	1.96
1030	2,225	0.45	0.50	0.62	0.80	1.04	1.35	1.52	2.09

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	55.9%	297	—
0.5-0.85	54.6%	1,117	—
0.85-1.05	55.3%	358	—
1.05-1.25	55.1%	198	—
>1.25	61.5%	208	moved since 2018

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

SCENERY: no measurable difference - this level behaves like any other price at that distance.
PULLS: price reached this level clearly more often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.
REPELS: price reached this level clearly less often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3297	0.0002	89.6%	163	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.3299	0.0004	77.5%	89	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.3301	0.0006	59.8%	82	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	1.3303	0.0008	63.7%	113	PULLS	—
0.25	up	1.3305	0.0010	36.2%	94	REPELS	—
0.30	up	1.3307	0.0012	36.1%	97	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	1.3311	0.0016	23.8%	147	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3315	0.0020	14.2%	155	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3324	0.0029	5.7%	105	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3334	0.0039	0.0%	55	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.3354	0.0059	0.0%	24	PULLS	—
0.05	down	1.3293	0.0002	89.1%	128	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.3291	0.0004	79.8%	89	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.3289	0.0006	55.2%	105	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.3287	0.0008	51.0%	98	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.3285	0.0010	55.1%	107	PULLS	—
0.30	down	1.3283	0.0012	35.2%	105	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	1.3279	0.0016	23.0%	135	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3275	0.0020	15.8%	146	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3266	0.0029	4.4%	113	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3256	0.0039	2.1%	48	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.3236	0.0059	0.0%	14	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3297	0.0002	90.1%	142	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.3299	0.0004	82.6%	86	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.3301	0.0006	66.1%	65	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	1.3303	0.0008	52.1%	96	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	1.3305	0.0010	40.3%	72	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.3307	0.0012	36.6%	134	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	1.3311	0.0016	24.6%	187	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	1.3315	0.0020	13.6%	264	REPELS	—
0.75	up	1.3324	0.0029	6.2%	241	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	1.3334	0.0039	1.6%	186	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	1.3354	0.0059	0.0%	85	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	1.3293	0.0002	89.8%	98	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.3291	0.0004	80.4%	56	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.3289	0.0006	56.7%	60	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	1.3287	0.0008	46.2%	52	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.3285	0.0010	47.6%	42	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.3283	0.0012	36.5%	74	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.3279	0.0016	23.1%	65	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3275	0.0020	16.7%	84	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3266	0.0029	10.2%	59	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3256	0.0039	0.0%	24	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	1.3236	0.0059	0.0%	12	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3297	0.0002	92.4%	105	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.3299	0.0004	73.7%	76	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.3301	0.0006	71.4%	63	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.3303	0.0008	52.9%	51	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.3305	0.0010	48.9%	45	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.3307	0.0012	38.3%	60	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.3311	0.0016	29.2%	65	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3315	0.0020	14.1%	78	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3324	0.0029	13.3%	60	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3334	0.0039	3.0%	33	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.3354	0.0059	0.0%	12	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.3293	0.0002	89.6%	125	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.3291	0.0004	82.6%	86	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.3289	0.0006	67.9%	81	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.3287	0.0008	56.8%	88	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.3285	0.0010	43.6%	78	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.3283	0.0012	29.2%	120	REPELS	—
0.40	down	1.3279	0.0016	25.3%	178	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	1.3275	0.0020	11.8%	245	REPELS	—
0.75	down	1.3266	0.0029	5.7%	281	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	1.3256	0.0039	1.6%	185	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	1.3236	0.0059	1.3%	77	SCENERY	—

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3297	0.0002	91.9%	148	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.3299	0.0004	73.4%	94	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.3301	0.0006	66.7%	93	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	1.3303	0.0008	47.6%	82	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	1.3305	0.0010	43.6%	78	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.3307	0.0012	33.9%	109	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	1.3311	0.0016	27.3%	121	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	1.3315	0.0020	16.1%	149	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3324	0.0029	6.0%	134	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3334	0.0039	4.6%	88	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.3354	0.0059	0.0%	32	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.05	down	1.3293	0.0002	87.0%	100	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.3291	0.0004	83.9%	87	PULLS	—
0.15	down	1.3289	0.0006	60.4%	91	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.3287	0.0008	54.9%	91	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.3285	0.0010	54.7%	75	PULLS	—
0.30	down	1.3283	0.0012	29.8%	104	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	1.3279	0.0016	23.1%	121	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3275	0.0020	17.0%	159	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	1.3266	0.0029	4.3%	141	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3256	0.0039	5.0%	80	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	1.3236	0.0059	0.0%	25	SCENERY	—

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3297	0.0002	89.4%	141	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.3299	0.0004	74.1%	81	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.3301	0.0006	59.8%	82	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	1.3303	0.0008	51.8%	83	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	1.3305	0.0010	47.3%	74	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.3307	0.0012	36.4%	110	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	1.3311	0.0016	25.0%	132	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3315	0.0020	19.1%	157	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3324	0.0029	9.0%	122	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.3334	0.0039	2.6%	77	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.3354	0.0059	0.0%	20	PULLS	—
0.05	down	1.3293	0.0002	90.0%	150	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.3291	0.0004	75.0%	80	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.3289	0.0006	62.8%	94	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.3287	0.0008	48.8%	82	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.3285	0.0010	45.9%	61	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.3283	0.0012	42.0%	119	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	1.3279	0.0016	27.1%	133	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3275	0.0020	13.1%	153	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3266	0.0029	4.6%	130	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.3256	0.0039	4.6%	65	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.3236	0.0059	0.0%	16	Not enough data (n<30)	—

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.3297	0.0002	91.3%	218	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.3299	0.0004	72.2%	151	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.3301	0.0006	64.8%	162	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	1.3303	0.0008	59.1%	137	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	1.3305	0.0010	42.0%	100	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.3307	0.0012	41.7%	127	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.3311	0.0016	30.4%	92	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.3315	0.0020	20.0%	70	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.3324	0.0029	7.1%	28	PULLS	—
1.00	up	1.3334	0.0039	0.0%	4	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	1.3354	0.0059	—	0	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.3293	0.0002	90.0%	241	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.3291	0.0004	82.0%	172	PULLS	—
0.15	down	1.3289	0.0006	60.0%	160	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.3287	0.0008	54.6%	130	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.3285	0.0010	36.6%	131	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.3283	0.0012	39.5%	129	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.3279	0.0016	29.7%	91	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.3275	0.0020	26.8%	56	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.3266	0.0029	15.0%	20	PULLS	—
1.00	down	1.3256	0.0039	40.0%	5	Not enough data (n<30)	—

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	49.8%	2,178	moved since 2018
up >0.20	68.9%	61	moved since 2018
up 0.10-0.20	62.6%	243	—
up 0.05-0.10	56.2%	324	moved since 2018
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	50.3%	950	—
dn 0.05-0.10	41.3%	322	—
dn 0.10-0.20	37.7%	228	—
dn >0.20	24.0%	50	—

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	40.4%	2,224
RTH low is final by 10:30	40.4%	2,224
Both high and low final by 10:30	4.5%	2,224
Low comes before high (full day)	50.4%	2,224
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	50.8%	2,224

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.8%	10,513	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	62.4%	5,917	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	65.1%	1,065	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	57.8%	206	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	67.2%	61	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	84.2%	19	—
[1.5,2.0)	66.7%	9	—
>=2.0	100.0%	2	—

Low is in before the high

Share of days where the RTH low / high of the day has already been set, by clock checkpoint.

By 15:00 the low is already in 89% of days, the high 89%.

checkpoint	low in %	high in %	diff	n
09:45	20.3%	18.3%	+2.1	2,224
10:30	40.4%	40.4%	+0.0	2,224
12:00	63.3%	64.0%	-0.8	2,224
14:00	79.5%	78.8%	+0.7	2,224
15:00	88.7%	88.7%	+0.0	2,224

Don't fade a stretched day

At each checkpoint, chance the day's range still extends >=0.05 ATR further by the 16:00 close, by how far the range has already stretched.

range so far (ATR)	10:30	12:00	14:00
<0.80	58.8%	36.4%	17.8%
0.80-1.05	50.0% reading, not a rule (n=18)	50.8% reading, not a rule (n=63)	26.1% reading, not a rule (n=88)
1.05-1.25	75.0% reading, not a rule (n=4)	52.6% reading, not a rule (n=19)	40.6% reading, not a rule (n=32)
>=1.25	100.0% reading, not a rule (n=2)	25.0% reading, not a rule (n=12)	40.0% reading, not a rule (n=30)

Yesterday's close vs. prior day range

R1/R2 use the full session (18:00-17:00 ET) close and prior-day range, not RTH -- see the note on the JSON for how this differs from the named-levels section above.

R1: yesterday's close broke above the older high (bullish, target = yesterday's high) (n: 986)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
71.2% (base 49.4%)	69.6% (base 43.4%)	50.7% (base 50.1%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~81%.

R2: yesterday's close broke below the older low (bearish, target = yesterday's low) (n: 967)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
68.0% (base 48.5%)	66.7% (base 42.7%)	50.6% (base 49.0%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~81%.

Show 77%+ only

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.