6J roadmap
Held era only (2226 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-10) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.
Probabilità misurate. Nessuna indicazione operativa. cosa significa →
Current price: 0,0062 · ATR14: 0,0000 · 09:30 open: 0,0063
Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.
The map
Touch ladder
Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.
| d (ATR) | dir | price | points | p (held) | n | band | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0,05 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 85,3% | 2224 | NEAR BAND | moved since 2018 |
| 0,05 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 86,2% | 2224 | NEAR BAND | |
| 0,10 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 70,8% | 2224 | LIKELY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,10 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 74,2% | 2224 | LIKELY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,15 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 60,0% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,15 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 61,3% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,20 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 49,1% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,20 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 50,1% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 41,5% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 41,0% | 2224 | STRETCH | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 34,0% | 2224 | STRETCH | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 33,1% | 2224 | STRETCH | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 23,2% | 2224 | STRETCH | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 20,9% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 15,5% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 13,9% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 6,7% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 4,1% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 2,3% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 1,6% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 0,8% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | |
| 1,50 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 0,3% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.
| d (ATR) | dir | price | points | p (held) | n | band | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0,05 | up | — | — | 87,1% | 2224 | NEAR BAND | moved since 2018 |
| 0,05 | down | — | — | 88,2% | 2224 | NEAR BAND | |
| 0,10 | up | — | — | 73,7% | 2224 | LIKELY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,10 | down | — | — | 75,7% | 2224 | LIKELY | |
| 0,15 | up | — | — | 60,9% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,15 | down | — | — | 64,7% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,20 | up | — | — | 51,1% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,20 | down | — | — | 54,9% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | up | — | — | 43,3% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | down | — | — | 46,1% | 2224 | COIN FLIP | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | up | — | — | 36,4% | 2224 | STRETCH | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | down | — | — | 37,9% | 2224 | STRETCH | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | up | — | — | 25,5% | 2224 | STRETCH | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | down | — | — | 25,1% | 2224 | STRETCH | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | up | — | — | 18,8% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | down | — | — | 16,6% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | up | — | — | 8,2% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | down | — | — | 6,2% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | up | — | — | 3,4% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | down | — | — | 2,1% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | up | — | — | 0,8% | 2224 | LONG SHOT | |
| 1,50 | down | — | — | 0,5% | 2224 | LONG SHOT |
State of the day
Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.
| checkpoint | n | p5 | p10 | p25 | p50 | p75 | p90 | p95 | p99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0845 | 2225 | 0,35 | 0,40 | 0,52 | 0,69 | 0,94 | 1,28 | 1,58 | 2,46 |
| 0930 | 2225 | 0,37 | 0,42 | 0,55 | 0,72 | 0,98 | 1,34 | 1,63 | 2,48 |
| 1030 | 2225 | 0,39 | 0,45 | 0,59 | 0,79 | 1,07 | 1,44 | 1,78 | 2,67 |
Fade caution
| range so far | p (held) | n | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| <0.5 | 55,1% | 399 | moved since 2018 |
| 0.5-0.85 | 60,7% | 974 | |
| 0.85-1.05 | 56,7% | 351 | |
| 1.05-1.25 | 59,9% | 182 | |
| >1.25 | 60,3% | 272 |
Named levels
Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.
Midnight open (00:00 ET)
| d (ATR) | dir | price | points | p (held) | n | band | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0,05 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 85,4% | 199 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,10 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 64,5% | 138 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,15 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 61,3% | 119 | SCENERY | |
| 0,20 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 46,0% | 100 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 37,9% | 103 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 23,8% | 130 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 19,5% | 123 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 15,7% | 147 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 2,4% | 84 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 4,2% | 48 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 0,0% | 7 | NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N) | |
| 0,05 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 89,4% | 189 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 77,8% | 99 | SCENERY | |
| 0,15 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 56,8% | 111 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,20 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 51,2% | 80 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 43,4% | 76 | SCENERY | |
| 0,30 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 36,8% | 95 | SCENERY | |
| 0,40 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 19,4% | 108 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 17,8% | 107 | SCENERY | |
| 0,75 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 4,8% | 83 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 6,4% | 47 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 0,0% | 18 | PULLS |
Prior day high
| d (ATR) | dir | price | points | p (held) | n | band | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0,05 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 92,2% | 116 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 65,6% | 90 | SCENERY | |
| 0,15 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 68,3% | 60 | SCENERY | |
| 0,20 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 44,8% | 87 | REPELS | |
| 0,25 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 44,4% | 108 | SCENERY | |
| 0,30 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 29,6% | 125 | REPELS | |
| 0,40 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 27,0% | 185 | SCENERY | |
| 0,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 13,8% | 275 | REPELS | |
| 0,75 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 4,3% | 258 | SCENERY | |
| 1,00 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 2,0% | 203 | SCENERY | |
| 1,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 1,1% | 91 | SCENERY | |
| 0,05 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 89,8% | 88 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 66,7% | 51 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,15 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 75,9% | 54 | PULLS | |
| 0,20 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 43,6% | 55 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 46,9% | 32 | PULLS | |
| 0,30 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 40,4% | 57 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 15,7% | 51 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 9,3% | 75 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 8,3% | 48 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 4,4% | 45 | PULLS | |
| 1,50 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 0,0% | 22 | PULLS |
Prior day low
| d (ATR) | dir | price | points | p (held) | n | band | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0,05 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 90,4% | 135 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 64,9% | 74 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,15 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 53,6% | 69 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,20 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 43,6% | 55 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 38,8% | 49 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 30,0% | 60 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 17,2% | 93 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 11,0% | 91 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 5,6% | 71 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 2,5% | 40 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 0,0% | 19 | NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N) | |
| 0,05 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 93,9% | 147 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,10 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 64,6% | 96 | SCENERY | |
| 0,15 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 61,5% | 96 | SCENERY | |
| 0,20 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 47,6% | 82 | REPELS | |
| 0,25 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 40,6% | 96 | REPELS | |
| 0,30 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 34,2% | 117 | REPELS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 20,3% | 158 | SCENERY | |
| 0,50 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 10,1% | 188 | REPELS | |
| 0,75 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 4,6% | 217 | SCENERY | |
| 1,00 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 2,3% | 129 | SCENERY | |
| 1,50 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 1,2% | 82 | SCENERY |
Prior day mid
| d (ATR) | dir | price | points | p (held) | n | band | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0,05 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 92,4% | 158 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 72,4% | 87 | SCENERY | |
| 0,15 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 57,3% | 117 | SCENERY | |
| 0,20 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 43,5% | 92 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 46,1% | 89 | SCENERY | |
| 0,30 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 25,6% | 117 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 22,0% | 132 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 9,3% | 162 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 3,9% | 153 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 1,1% | 94 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 3,0% | 33 | PULLS | |
| 0,05 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 92,0% | 138 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 69,9% | 83 | SCENERY | |
| 0,15 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 52,5% | 61 | SCENERY | |
| 0,20 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 46,9% | 81 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 42,6% | 61 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 28,7% | 87 | SCENERY | |
| 0,40 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 13,8% | 87 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 16,9% | 130 | SCENERY | |
| 0,75 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 5,9% | 102 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 2,5% | 79 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 2,3% | 44 | PULLS |
Prior settlement / close
| d (ATR) | dir | price | points | p (held) | n | band | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0,05 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 90,1% | 171 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 74,0% | 119 | SCENERY | |
| 0,15 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 58,1% | 86 | SCENERY | |
| 0,20 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 47,9% | 94 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 39,2% | 74 | SCENERY | |
| 0,30 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 25,5% | 106 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 21,5% | 130 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 6,9% | 160 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 4,9% | 122 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 1,3% | 76 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 0,0% | 23 | SCENERY | |
| 0,05 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 85,8% | 134 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 70,5% | 88 | SCENERY | |
| 0,15 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 62,7% | 67 | SCENERY | |
| 0,20 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 43,0% | 79 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 36,3% | 80 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 26,4% | 91 | SCENERY | |
| 0,40 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 26,2% | 107 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 19,1% | 126 | PULLS | |
| 0,75 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 6,1% | 98 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,00 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 2,7% | 73 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 1,50 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 0,0% | 42 | PULLS |
18:00 ET session mid
| d (ATR) | dir | price | points | p (held) | n | band | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0,05 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 84,7% | 275 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,10 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 69,0% | 184 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,15 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 54,7% | 201 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,20 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 45,3% | 139 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 34,7% | 121 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,30 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 34,2% | 123 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 21,1% | 95 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 17,2% | 58 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 11,1% | 18 | PULLS | |
| 1,00 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 0,0% | 6 | NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N) | |
| 1,50 | up | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | — | 0 | NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N) | |
| 0,05 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 86,4% | 265 | SCENERY | |
| 0,10 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 73,7% | 152 | SCENERY | |
| 0,15 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 57,9% | 164 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,20 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 45,4% | 108 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,25 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 50,6% | 87 | PULLS | |
| 0,30 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 35,4% | 82 | SCENERY | moved since 2018 |
| 0,40 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 31,0% | 71 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,50 | down | 0,0063 | 0,0000 | 13,2% | 38 | PULLS | moved since 2018 |
| 0,75 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 13,8% | 29 | PULLS | |
| 1,00 | down | 0,0062 | 0,0000 | 0,0% | 7 | NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N) |
The playbook
09:45 checkpoint
| band | p (held) | n | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALL (pooled) | 43,9% | 2178 | moved since 2018 |
| up >0.20 | 64,8% | 54 | |
| up 0.10-0.20 | 63,7% | 212 | |
| up 0.05-0.10 | 54,3% | 317 | |
| near 0 (<0.05 abs) | 42,9% | 1050 | |
| dn 0.05-0.10 | 32,8% | 314 | |
| dn 0.10-0.20 | 27,2% | 169 | |
| dn >0.20 | 22,6% | 62 |
One end by 10:30
| metric | p (held) | n |
|---|---|---|
| RTH high is final by 10:30 | 45,7% | 2224 |
| RTH low is final by 10:30 | 38,7% | 2224 |
| Both high and low final by 10:30 | 6,3% | 2224 |
| Low comes before high (full day) | 46,1% | 2224 |
| Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window) | 49,2% | 2224 |
Stop-fading curve
checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further
| range so far (ATR bin) | p (held) | n | era flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| [0,0.25) | 68,9% | 11.355 | moved since 2018 |
| [0.25,0.5) | 62,0% | 5140 | moved since 2018 |
| [0.5,0.75) | 65,1% | 893 | moved since 2018 |
| [0.75,1.0) | 53,5% | 269 | moved since 2018 |
| [1.0,1.25) | 47,6% | 84 | moved since 2018 |
| [1.25,1.5) | 76,5% | 17 | |
| [1.5,2.0) | 75,0% | 12 | |
| >=2.0 | 27,3% | 22 |
Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.