6J roadmap

Held era only (2,226 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-10) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

측정된 확률. 매매 신호 없음. 뜻은 →

Current price: 0.0062 · ATR14: 0.0000 · 09:30 open: 0.0063

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.0063	85.3%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	0.0063	86.2%	2,224	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	0.0063	70.8%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	0.0063	74.2%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	0.0063	60.0%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	0.0063	61.3%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	up	0.0063	49.1%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	0.0063	50.1%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.0063	41.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.0063	41.0%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.0063	34.0%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	0.0063	33.1%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.0063	23.2%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.0063	20.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.0063	15.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.0063	13.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.0063	6.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	0.0062	4.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.0063	2.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.0062	1.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.0063	0.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	0.0062	0.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	87.1%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	—	—	88.2%	2,224	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	—	—	73.7%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	75.7%	2,224	LIKELY
0.15	up	—	—	60.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	—	—	64.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	up	—	—	51.1%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	—	—	54.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	—	—	43.3%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	—	—	46.1%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	36.4%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	—	—	37.9%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	—	—	25.5%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	25.1%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	up	—	—	18.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	16.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	—	—	8.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	—	—	6.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	—	—	3.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	—	—	2.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.50	up	—	—	0.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	—	—	0.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,225	0.35	0.40	0.52	0.69	0.94	1.28	1.58	2.46
0930	2,225	0.37	0.42	0.55	0.72	0.98	1.34	1.63	2.48
1030	2,225	0.39	0.45	0.59	0.79	1.07	1.44	1.78	2.67

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	55.1%	399	moved since 2018
0.5-0.85	60.7%	974
0.85-1.05	56.7%	351
1.05-1.25	59.9%	182
>1.25	60.3%	272

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.0063	85.4%	199	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	0.0063	64.5%	138	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	0.0063	61.3%	119	SCENERY
0.20	up	0.0063	46.0%	100	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.0063	37.9%	103	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.0063	23.8%	130	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.0063	19.5%	123	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.0063	15.7%	147	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.0063	2.4%	84	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.0063	4.2%	48	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.0063	0.0%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	0.0063	89.4%	189	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.0063	77.8%	99	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.0063	56.8%	111	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	0.0063	51.2%	80	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.0063	43.4%	76	SCENERY
0.30	down	0.0063	36.8%	95	SCENERY
0.40	down	0.0063	19.4%	108	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.0063	17.8%	107	SCENERY
0.75	down	0.0062	4.8%	83	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.0062	6.4%	47	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	0.0062	0.0%	18	PULLS

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.0063	92.2%	116	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.0063	65.6%	90	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.0063	68.3%	60	SCENERY
0.20	up	0.0063	44.8%	87	REPELS
0.25	up	0.0063	44.4%	108	SCENERY
0.30	up	0.0063	29.6%	125	REPELS
0.40	up	0.0063	27.0%	185	SCENERY
0.50	up	0.0063	13.8%	275	REPELS
0.75	up	0.0063	4.3%	258	SCENERY
1.00	up	0.0063	2.0%	203	SCENERY
1.50	up	0.0063	1.1%	91	SCENERY
0.05	down	0.0063	89.8%	88	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.0063	66.7%	51	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	0.0063	75.9%	54	PULLS
0.20	down	0.0063	43.6%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.0063	46.9%	32	PULLS
0.30	down	0.0063	40.4%	57	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.0063	15.7%	51	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.0063	9.3%	75	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	0.0062	8.3%	48	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.0062	4.4%	45	PULLS
1.50	down	0.0062	0.0%	22	PULLS

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.0063	90.4%	135	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.0063	64.9%	74	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	0.0063	53.6%	69	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	0.0063	43.6%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.0063	38.8%	49	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.0063	30.0%	60	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.0063	17.2%	93	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.0063	11.0%	91	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.0063	5.6%	71	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.0063	2.5%	40	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.0063	0.0%	19	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	0.0063	93.9%	147	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	0.0063	64.6%	96	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.0063	61.5%	96	SCENERY
0.20	down	0.0063	47.6%	82	REPELS
0.25	down	0.0063	40.6%	96	REPELS
0.30	down	0.0063	34.2%	117	REPELS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.0063	20.3%	158	SCENERY
0.50	down	0.0063	10.1%	188	REPELS
0.75	down	0.0062	4.6%	217	SCENERY
1.00	down	0.0062	2.3%	129	SCENERY
1.50	down	0.0062	1.2%	82	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.0063	92.4%	158	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.0063	72.4%	87	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.0063	57.3%	117	SCENERY
0.20	up	0.0063	43.5%	92	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.0063	46.1%	89	SCENERY
0.30	up	0.0063	25.6%	117	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.0063	22.0%	132	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.0063	9.3%	162	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.0063	3.9%	153	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.0063	1.1%	94	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.0063	3.0%	33	PULLS
0.05	down	0.0063	92.0%	138	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.0063	69.9%	83	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.0063	52.5%	61	SCENERY
0.20	down	0.0063	46.9%	81	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.0063	42.6%	61	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	0.0063	28.7%	87	SCENERY
0.40	down	0.0063	13.8%	87	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.0063	16.9%	130	SCENERY
0.75	down	0.0062	5.9%	102	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.0062	2.5%	79	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	0.0062	2.3%	44	PULLS

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.0063	90.1%	171	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.0063	74.0%	119	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.0063	58.1%	86	SCENERY
0.20	up	0.0063	47.9%	94	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.0063	39.2%	74	SCENERY
0.30	up	0.0063	25.5%	106	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.0063	21.5%	130	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.0063	6.9%	160	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.0063	4.9%	122	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.0063	1.3%	76	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.0063	0.0%	23	SCENERY
0.05	down	0.0063	85.8%	134	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.0063	70.5%	88	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.0063	62.7%	67	SCENERY
0.20	down	0.0063	43.0%	79	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.0063	36.3%	80	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	0.0063	26.4%	91	SCENERY
0.40	down	0.0063	26.2%	107	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.0063	19.1%	126	PULLS
0.75	down	0.0062	6.1%	98	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.0062	2.7%	73	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	0.0062	0.0%	42	PULLS

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.0063	84.7%	275	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	0.0063	69.0%	184	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	0.0063	54.7%	201	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	0.0063	45.3%	139	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.0063	34.7%	121	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.0063	34.2%	123	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.0063	21.1%	95	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.0063	17.2%	58	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.0063	11.1%	18	PULLS
1.00	up	0.0063	0.0%	6	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	up	0.0063	—	0	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	0.0063	86.4%	265	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.0063	73.7%	152	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.0063	57.9%	164	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	0.0063	45.4%	108	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.0063	50.6%	87	PULLS
0.30	down	0.0063	35.4%	82	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.0063	31.0%	71	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.0063	13.2%	38	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	0.0062	13.8%	29	PULLS
1.00	down	0.0062	0.0%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	43.9%	2,178	moved since 2018
up >0.20	64.8%	54
up 0.10-0.20	63.7%	212
up 0.05-0.10	54.3%	317
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	42.9%	1,050
dn 0.05-0.10	32.8%	314
dn 0.10-0.20	27.2%	169
dn >0.20	22.6%	62

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	45.7%	2,224
RTH low is final by 10:30	38.7%	2,224
Both high and low final by 10:30	6.3%	2,224
Low comes before high (full day)	46.1%	2,224
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	49.2%	2,224

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	68.9%	11,355	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	62.0%	5,140	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	65.1%	893	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	53.5%	269	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	47.6%	84	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	76.5%	17
[1.5,2.0)	75.0%	12
>=2.0	27.3%	22

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.