6A roadmap

Held era only (2,226 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-10) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

測定済みのオッズ。売買指示なし。意味 →

Current price: 0.7141 · ATR14: 0.0022 · 09:30 open: 0.7165

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.7166	0.0001	86.2%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	0.7164	0.0001	87.6%	2,224	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	0.7167	0.0002	74.6%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	0.7163	0.0002	74.5%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	0.7168	0.0003	63.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	0.7162	0.0003	64.1%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	up	0.7169	0.0004	53.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	0.7161	0.0004	53.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.7171	0.0006	45.1%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.7159	0.0006	45.3%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.7172	0.0007	36.7%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	0.7158	0.0007	37.5%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.7174	0.0009	23.8%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.7156	0.0009	26.3%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.7176	0.0011	14.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.7154	0.0011	18.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.7182	0.0017	6.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	0.7148	0.0017	5.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.7187	0.0022	2.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.7143	0.0022	2.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.7198	0.0033	0.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.50	down	0.7132	0.0033	0.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	88.7%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	—	—	88.1%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.10	up	—	—	76.0%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	76.1%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	—	—	66.3%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	—	—	66.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	up	—	—	56.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	—	—	57.8%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	—	—	47.3%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	—	—	49.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	39.6%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	—	—	41.4%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	—	—	26.7%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	29.7%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	up	—	—	18.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	20.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	—	—	7.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	—	—	7.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	—	—	2.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	—	—	3.0%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	—	—	0.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	—	—	0.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,225	0.40	0.45	0.56	0.71	0.93	1.19	1.39	1.88
0930	2,225	0.41	0.47	0.58	0.74	0.96	1.24	1.43	1.93
1030	2,225	0.45	0.51	0.62	0.80	1.06	1.32	1.55	2.13

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	56.0%	282
0.5-0.85	55.2%	1,089
0.85-1.05	50.4%	383	moved since 2018
1.05-1.25	58.2%	208
>1.25	53.7%	216

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.7166	0.0001	89.4%	180	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.7167	0.0002	77.3%	110	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.7168	0.0003	67.5%	123	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	0.7169	0.0004	49.5%	93	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.7171	0.0006	30.7%	75	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.7172	0.0007	30.5%	118	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.7174	0.0009	24.6%	134	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.7176	0.0011	13.5%	126	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.7182	0.0017	8.6%	104	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.7187	0.0022	2.1%	47	PULLS
1.50	up	0.7198	0.0033	0.0%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	0.7164	0.0001	90.3%	175	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.7163	0.0002	68.4%	98	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.7162	0.0003	67.6%	108	SCENERY
0.20	down	0.7161	0.0004	47.9%	119	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.7159	0.0006	47.4%	95	SCENERY
0.30	down	0.7158	0.0007	28.6%	119	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.7156	0.0009	30.3%	119	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.7154	0.0011	24.0%	146	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	0.7148	0.0017	7.1%	85	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.7143	0.0022	0.0%	29	SCENERY
1.50	down	0.7132	0.0033	0.0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.7166	0.0001	93.5%	123	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.7167	0.0002	71.1%	90	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.7168	0.0003	61.5%	83	SCENERY
0.20	up	0.7169	0.0004	58.3%	84	SCENERY
0.25	up	0.7171	0.0006	38.3%	94	SCENERY
0.30	up	0.7172	0.0007	30.4%	115	REPELS
0.40	up	0.7174	0.0009	25.6%	164	SCENERY
0.50	up	0.7176	0.0011	11.8%	220	REPELS
0.75	up	0.7182	0.0017	7.3%	260	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.7187	0.0022	2.3%	173	SCENERY
1.50	up	0.7198	0.0033	0.0%	105	SCENERY
0.05	down	0.7164	0.0001	89.3%	103	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.7163	0.0002	77.5%	80	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.7162	0.0003	61.4%	57	SCENERY
0.20	down	0.7161	0.0004	50.0%	54	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.7159	0.0006	45.7%	46	SCENERY
0.30	down	0.7158	0.0007	35.4%	96	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.7156	0.0009	30.3%	66	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.7154	0.0011	18.3%	93	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	0.7148	0.0017	9.8%	51	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.7143	0.0022	3.9%	26	PULLS
1.50	down	0.7132	0.0033	0.0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.7166	0.0001	95.1%	102	PULLS
0.10	up	0.7167	0.0002	74.0%	50	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.7168	0.0003	72.9%	59	PULLS
0.20	up	0.7169	0.0004	52.5%	59	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.7171	0.0006	44.1%	59	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.7172	0.0007	40.4%	57	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.7174	0.0009	23.0%	61	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.7176	0.0011	15.6%	77	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.7182	0.0017	6.4%	78	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.7187	0.0022	6.5%	46	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.7198	0.0033	0.0%	12	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	0.7164	0.0001	87.9%	99	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.7163	0.0002	78.6%	70	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.7162	0.0003	71.3%	87	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	0.7161	0.0004	51.3%	78	SCENERY
0.25	down	0.7159	0.0006	52.3%	88	SCENERY
0.30	down	0.7158	0.0007	26.8%	138	REPELS
0.40	down	0.7156	0.0009	26.1%	153	SCENERY
0.50	down	0.7154	0.0011	14.1%	270	REPELS
0.75	down	0.7148	0.0017	8.0%	287	SCENERY
1.00	down	0.7143	0.0022	2.1%	187	SCENERY
1.50	down	0.7132	0.0033	0.0%	80	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.7166	0.0001	88.0%	117	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.7167	0.0002	79.2%	96	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.7168	0.0003	48.8%	80	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	0.7169	0.0004	60.0%	70	PULLS
0.25	up	0.7171	0.0006	46.6%	58	SCENERY
0.30	up	0.7172	0.0007	45.0%	100	PULLS
0.40	up	0.7174	0.0009	19.0%	121	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.7176	0.0011	13.5%	170	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.7182	0.0017	8.6%	117	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.7187	0.0022	0.0%	109	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.7198	0.0033	0.0%	33	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.05	down	0.7164	0.0001	83.5%	127	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.7163	0.0002	68.5%	92	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.7162	0.0003	64.1%	78	SCENERY
0.20	down	0.7161	0.0004	55.8%	86	SCENERY
0.25	down	0.7159	0.0006	38.1%	84	SCENERY
0.30	down	0.7158	0.0007	32.1%	106	SCENERY
0.40	down	0.7156	0.0009	25.2%	135	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.7154	0.0011	20.1%	199	SCENERY
0.75	down	0.7148	0.0017	7.6%	132	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.7143	0.0022	0.0%	74	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	0.7132	0.0033	3.5%	29	PULLS

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.7166	0.0001	91.7%	132	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.7167	0.0002	74.4%	90	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.7168	0.0003	55.6%	63	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	0.7169	0.0004	45.7%	92	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	0.7171	0.0006	42.3%	71	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.7172	0.0007	35.4%	110	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.7174	0.0009	27.3%	121	SCENERY
0.50	up	0.7176	0.0011	13.7%	139	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.7182	0.0017	8.3%	132	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	0.7187	0.0022	1.2%	85	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	0.7198	0.0033	0.0%	31	PULLS
0.05	down	0.7164	0.0001	88.7%	106	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.7163	0.0002	75.0%	96	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.7162	0.0003	56.5%	92	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	0.7161	0.0004	43.2%	95	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.7159	0.0006	41.2%	68	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	0.7158	0.0007	36.2%	127	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.7156	0.0009	26.4%	129	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.7154	0.0011	21.3%	192	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	0.7148	0.0017	6.7%	120	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	0.7143	0.0022	4.8%	63	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	0.7132	0.0033	0.0%	19	PULLS

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	0.7166	0.0001	89.5%	267	SCENERY
0.10	up	0.7167	0.0002	77.1%	153	SCENERY
0.15	up	0.7168	0.0003	58.6%	152	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	0.7169	0.0004	59.0%	144	SCENERY
0.25	up	0.7171	0.0006	41.9%	93	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	0.7172	0.0007	41.5%	118	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	0.7174	0.0009	26.0%	123	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	0.7176	0.0011	20.8%	53	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	0.7182	0.0017	0.0%	17	PULLS
1.00	up	0.7187	0.0022	25.0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	0.7164	0.0001	90.1%	222	SCENERY
0.10	down	0.7163	0.0002	72.9%	177	SCENERY
0.15	down	0.7162	0.0003	63.7%	160	SCENERY
0.20	down	0.7161	0.0004	47.7%	132	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	0.7159	0.0006	43.1%	116	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	0.7158	0.0007	38.4%	125	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	0.7156	0.0009	36.3%	91	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	0.7154	0.0011	11.1%	54	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	0.7148	0.0017	20.0%	20	PULLS
1.00	down	0.7143	0.0022	0.0%	2	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n
ALL (pooled)	50.4%	2,178
up >0.20	74.6%	63
up 0.10-0.20	62.8%	242
up 0.05-0.10	58.5%	316
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	52.3%	930
dn 0.05-0.10	38.4%	302
dn 0.10-0.20	37.9%	269
dn >0.20	17.9%	56

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	40.7%	2,224
RTH low is final by 10:30	39.4%	2,224
Both high and low final by 10:30	4.9%	2,224
Low comes before high (full day)	49.4%	2,224
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	49.4%	2,224

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	71.7%	10,799
[0.25,0.5)	63.8%	5,756	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	70.6%	1,004	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	61.5%	156	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	58.6%	58	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	100.0%	8
[1.5,2.0)	27.3%	11
>=2.0	—	0

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.