YM roadmap

Held era only (2,227 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

測定済みのオッズ。売買指示なし。意味 →

Current price: 52829.00 · ATR14: 313.57 · 09:30 open: 53265.00

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	53280.68	15.68	91.1%	2,221	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	53249.32	15.68	89.3%	2,221	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	53296.36	31.36	83.4%	2,221	LIKELY
0.10	down	53233.64	31.36	81.5%	2,221	LIKELY
0.15	up	53312.04	47.04	74.7%	2,221	LIKELY
0.15	down	53217.96	47.04	73.0%	2,221	LIKELY
0.20	up	53327.71	62.71	65.8%	2,221	COIN FLIP
0.20	down	53202.29	62.71	64.9%	2,221	COIN FLIP
0.25	up	53343.39	78.39	58.0%	2,221	COIN FLIP
0.25	down	53186.61	78.39	57.9%	2,221	COIN FLIP
0.30	up	53359.07	94.07	50.9%	2,221	COIN FLIP
0.30	down	53170.93	94.07	50.8%	2,221	COIN FLIP
0.40	up	53390.43	125.43	38.6%	2,221	STRETCH
0.40	down	53139.57	125.43	40.3%	2,221	STRETCH
0.50	up	53421.79	156.79	28.7%	2,221	STRETCH
0.50	down	53108.21	156.79	30.9%	2,221	STRETCH
0.75	up	53500.18	235.18	12.9%	2,221	LONG SHOT
0.75	down	53029.82	235.18	16.9%	2,221	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	53578.57	313.57	5.2%	2,221	LONG SHOT
1.00	down	52951.43	313.57	8.6%	2,221	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	53735.36	470.36	1.0%	2,221	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	52794.64	470.36	2.1%	2,221	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	—	—	91.3%	2,226	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	—	—	91.4%	2,226	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	—	—	83.8%	2,226	LIKELY
0.10	down	—	—	82.0%	2,226	LIKELY
0.15	up	—	—	75.1%	2,226	LIKELY
0.15	down	—	—	72.6%	2,226	LIKELY
0.20	up	—	—	67.2%	2,226	COIN FLIP
0.20	down	—	—	65.0%	2,226	COIN FLIP
0.25	up	—	—	59.8%	2,226	COIN FLIP
0.25	down	—	—	57.7%	2,226	COIN FLIP
0.30	up	—	—	52.8%	2,226	COIN FLIP
0.30	down	—	—	51.4%	2,226	COIN FLIP
0.40	up	—	—	39.5%	2,226	STRETCH
0.40	down	—	—	40.5%	2,226	STRETCH
0.50	up	—	—	30.0%	2,226	STRETCH
0.50	down	—	—	32.6%	2,226	STRETCH
0.75	up	—	—	13.5%	2,226	LONG SHOT
0.75	down	—	—	17.7%	2,226	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	—	—	5.8%	2,226	LONG SHOT
1.00	down	—	—	8.8%	2,226	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	—	—	1.0%	2,226	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	—	—	2.3%	2,226	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,226	0.25	0.28	0.36	0.49	0.68	0.92	1.11	1.63
0930	2,226	0.27	0.31	0.39	0.53	0.73	0.96	1.17	1.69
1030	2,226	0.34	0.40	0.50	0.68	0.90	1.23	1.48	2.05

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n
<0.5	55.4%	938
0.5-0.85	52.4%	859
0.85-1.05	52.4%	185
1.05-1.25	56.8%	74
>1.25	52.3%	88

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	53280.68	15.68	94.6%	241	SCENERY
0.10	up	53296.36	31.36	83.7%	147	SCENERY
0.15	up	53312.04	47.04	74.6%	110	SCENERY
0.20	up	53327.71	62.71	71.7%	92	SCENERY
0.25	up	53343.39	78.39	58.1%	86	SCENERY
0.30	up	53359.07	94.07	57.7%	97	SCENERY
0.40	up	53390.43	125.43	46.9%	81	SCENERY
0.50	up	53421.79	156.79	39.6%	91	PULLS
0.75	up	53500.18	235.18	25.0%	56	PULLS
1.00	up	53578.57	313.57	8.3%	24	SCENERY
1.50	up	53735.36	470.36	0.0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	53249.32	15.68	91.5%	258	SCENERY
0.10	down	53233.64	31.36	84.7%	150	SCENERY
0.15	down	53217.96	47.04	72.3%	166	SCENERY
0.20	down	53202.29	62.71	60.5%	129	SCENERY
0.25	down	53186.61	78.39	60.4%	111	SCENERY
0.30	down	53170.93	94.07	50.8%	132	SCENERY
0.40	down	53139.57	125.43	46.4%	97	SCENERY
0.50	down	53108.21	156.79	36.8%	87	SCENERY
0.75	down	53029.82	235.18	14.6%	41	SCENERY
1.00	down	52951.43	313.57	7.7%	13	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	down	52794.64	470.36	25.0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	53280.68	15.68	94.8%	116	SCENERY
0.10	up	53296.36	31.36	77.1%	105	SCENERY
0.15	up	53312.04	47.04	68.4%	114	REPELS
0.20	up	53327.71	62.71	59.0%	117	SCENERY
0.25	up	53343.39	78.39	50.4%	117	SCENERY
0.30	up	53359.07	94.07	46.9%	143	SCENERY
0.40	up	53390.43	125.43	36.5%	159	SCENERY
0.50	up	53421.79	156.79	24.5%	249	REPELS
0.75	up	53500.18	235.18	17.0%	259	SCENERY
1.00	up	53578.57	313.57	7.6%	159	SCENERY
1.50	up	53735.36	470.36	1.1%	93	SCENERY
0.05	down	53249.32	15.68	88.7%	124	SCENERY
0.10	down	53233.64	31.36	77.4%	62	SCENERY
0.15	down	53217.96	47.04	67.7%	65	SCENERY
0.20	down	53202.29	62.71	68.9%	45	SCENERY
0.25	down	53186.61	78.39	58.5%	53	SCENERY
0.30	down	53170.93	94.07	42.2%	45	SCENERY
0.40	down	53139.57	125.43	29.8%	47	SCENERY
0.50	down	53108.21	156.79	19.2%	52	REPELS
0.75	down	53029.82	235.18	22.2%	18	SCENERY
1.00	down	52951.43	313.57	16.7%	12	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	down	52794.64	470.36	40.0%	5	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	53280.68	15.68	95.0%	80	SCENERY
0.10	up	53296.36	31.36	77.8%	36	SCENERY
0.15	up	53312.04	47.04	72.7%	33	SCENERY
0.20	up	53327.71	62.71	61.8%	34	SCENERY
0.25	up	53343.39	78.39	62.5%	32	PULLS
0.30	up	53359.07	94.07	88.0%	25	PULLS
0.40	up	53390.43	125.43	50.0%	34	SCENERY
0.50	up	53421.79	156.79	42.1%	38	PULLS
0.75	up	53500.18	235.18	33.3%	30	PULLS
1.00	up	53578.57	313.57	10.0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	up	53735.36	470.36	27.3%	11	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	53249.32	15.68	95.2%	104	PULLS
0.10	down	53233.64	31.36	81.8%	88	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.15	down	53217.96	47.04	67.9%	81	SCENERY
0.20	down	53202.29	62.71	69.7%	89	SCENERY
0.25	down	53186.61	78.39	58.3%	96	SCENERY
0.30	down	53170.93	94.07	48.0%	148	SCENERY
0.40	down	53139.57	125.43	35.6%	191	REPELS
0.50	down	53108.21	156.79	28.4%	324	SCENERY
0.75	down	53029.82	235.18	16.3%	319	SCENERY
1.00	down	52951.43	313.57	7.4%	271	SCENERY
1.50	down	52794.64	470.36	4.4%	114	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	53280.68	15.68	93.2%	148	SCENERY
0.10	up	53296.36	31.36	85.9%	92	SCENERY
0.15	up	53312.04	47.04	71.6%	88	SCENERY
0.20	up	53327.71	62.71	58.3%	84	SCENERY
0.25	up	53343.39	78.39	60.0%	60	SCENERY
0.30	up	53359.07	94.07	59.6%	94	SCENERY
0.40	up	53390.43	125.43	45.2%	84	PULLS
0.50	up	53421.79	156.79	32.1%	140	PULLS
0.75	up	53500.18	235.18	24.3%	74	PULLS
1.00	up	53578.57	313.57	13.2%	68	SCENERY
1.50	up	53735.36	470.36	5.0%	20	SCENERY
0.05	down	53249.32	15.68	90.3%	165	SCENERY
0.10	down	53233.64	31.36	83.8%	111	SCENERY
0.15	down	53217.96	47.04	71.9%	96	SCENERY
0.20	down	53202.29	62.71	59.5%	116	SCENERY
0.25	down	53186.61	78.39	51.1%	88	REPELS
0.30	down	53170.93	94.07	52.1%	117	SCENERY
0.40	down	53139.57	125.43	34.5%	139	SCENERY
0.50	down	53108.21	156.79	29.8%	178	SCENERY
0.75	down	53029.82	235.18	13.6%	154	SCENERY
1.00	down	52951.43	313.57	10.9%	64	SCENERY
1.50	down	52794.64	470.36	13.3%	15	SCENERY

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	53280.68	15.68	93.2%	190	SCENERY
0.10	up	53296.36	31.36	88.1%	135	PULLS
0.15	up	53312.04	47.04	75.8%	95	SCENERY
0.20	up	53327.71	62.71	68.8%	77	SCENERY
0.25	up	53343.39	78.39	56.6%	76	SCENERY
0.30	up	53359.07	94.07	59.6%	99	SCENERY
0.40	up	53390.43	125.43	54.6%	77	PULLS
0.50	up	53421.79	156.79	39.2%	97	PULLS
0.75	up	53500.18	235.18	26.9%	67	PULLS
1.00	up	53578.57	313.57	22.0%	41	PULLS
1.50	up	53735.36	470.36	14.3%	14	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	53249.32	15.68	94.6%	185	PULLS
0.10	down	53233.64	31.36	81.8%	137	SCENERY
0.15	down	53217.96	47.04	67.9%	109	SCENERY
0.20	down	53202.29	62.71	71.6%	109	SCENERY
0.25	down	53186.61	78.39	54.6%	119	SCENERY
0.30	down	53170.93	94.07	56.1%	123	SCENERY
0.40	down	53139.57	125.43	36.4%	129	SCENERY
0.50	down	53108.21	156.79	25.2%	135	SCENERY
0.75	down	53029.82	235.18	19.0%	79	SCENERY
1.00	down	52951.43	313.57	11.5%	26	SCENERY
1.50	down	52794.64	470.36	27.3%	11	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	53280.68	15.68	92.3%	378	SCENERY
0.10	up	53296.36	31.36	85.1%	214	SCENERY
0.15	up	53312.04	47.04	74.4%	129	SCENERY
0.20	up	53327.71	62.71	77.8%	90	PULLS
0.25	up	53343.39	78.39	78.4%	74	PULLS
0.30	up	53359.07	94.07	58.0%	69	PULLS
0.40	up	53390.43	125.43	54.1%	37	PULLS
0.50	up	53421.79	156.79	42.1%	19	SCENERY
0.75	up	53500.18	235.18	28.6%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	up	53735.36	470.36	—	0	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	53249.32	15.68	90.8%	412	SCENERY
0.10	down	53233.64	31.36	78.8%	250	SCENERY
0.15	down	53217.96	47.04	72.1%	197	SCENERY
0.20	down	53202.29	62.71	65.0%	120	SCENERY
0.25	down	53186.61	78.39	68.6%	86	SCENERY
0.30	down	53170.93	94.07	60.9%	69	SCENERY
0.40	down	53139.57	125.43	56.8%	44	SCENERY
0.50	down	53108.21	156.79	15.8%	19	REPELS
0.75	down	53029.82	235.18	42.9%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	53.4%	2,144
up >0.20	79.9%	259
up 0.10-0.20	65.5%	325
up 0.05-0.10	57.7%	248
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	54.8%	507
dn 0.05-0.10	38.8%	250	moved since 2018
dn 0.10-0.20	39.2%	291
dn >0.20	35.6%	264

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	37.7%	2,221
RTH low is final by 10:30	42.1%	2,221
Both high and low final by 10:30	4.2%	2,221
Low comes before high (full day)	52.0%	2,221
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	49.5%	2,221

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.8%	6,484
[0.25,0.5)	67.3%	7,988
[0.5,0.75)	72.0%	2,343	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	69.9%	652
[1.0,1.25)	64.3%	193
[1.25,1.5)	71.8%	71	moved since 2018
[1.5,2.0)	96.7%	30
>=2.0	28.6%	7

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.