YM roadmap

Held era only (2,227 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 52200.00 · ATR14: 494.71 · 09:30 open: 52529.00

Every probability below is measured on 2018-01-01 onward only (the most recent regime), never on the pooled full history: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 period and 2018 onward, so only the recent number ships. The era flag marks a cell that moved between the two periods -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	52553.74	24.74	91.1%	2,221	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	52504.26	24.74	89.3%	2,221	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	52578.47	49.47	83.4%	2,221	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	52479.53	49.47	81.5%	2,221	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	52603.21	74.21	74.7%	2,221	LIKELY	—
0.15	down	52454.79	74.21	73.0%	2,221	LIKELY	—
0.20	up	52627.94	98.94	65.8%	2,221	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	52430.06	98.94	64.9%	2,221	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	52652.68	123.68	58.0%	2,221	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	52405.32	123.68	57.9%	2,221	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	up	52677.41	148.41	50.9%	2,221	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	down	52380.59	148.41	50.8%	2,221	COIN FLIP	—
0.40	up	52726.89	197.89	38.6%	2,221	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	52331.11	197.89	40.3%	2,221	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	52776.36	247.36	28.7%	2,221	STRETCH	—
0.50	down	52281.64	247.36	30.9%	2,221	STRETCH	—
0.75	up	52900.04	371.04	12.9%	2,221	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	52157.96	371.04	16.9%	2,221	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	53023.71	494.71	5.2%	2,221	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	52034.29	494.71	8.6%	2,221	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	53271.07	742.07	1.0%	2,221	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	51786.93	742.07	2.1%	2,221	LONG SHOT	—

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	91.3%	2,226	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	—	—	91.4%	2,226	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	—	—	83.8%	2,226	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	—	—	82.0%	2,226	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	—	—	75.1%	2,226	LIKELY	—
0.15	down	—	—	72.6%	2,226	LIKELY	—
0.20	up	—	—	67.2%	2,226	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	—	—	65.0%	2,226	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	—	—	59.8%	2,226	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	—	—	57.7%	2,226	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	up	—	—	52.8%	2,226	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	down	—	—	51.4%	2,226	COIN FLIP	—
0.40	up	—	—	39.5%	2,226	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	—	—	40.5%	2,226	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	—	—	30.0%	2,226	STRETCH	—
0.50	down	—	—	32.6%	2,226	STRETCH	—
0.75	up	—	—	13.5%	2,226	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	—	—	17.7%	2,226	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	—	—	5.8%	2,226	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	—	—	8.8%	2,226	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	—	—	1.0%	2,226	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	—	—	2.3%	2,226	LONG SHOT	—

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,226	0.25	0.28	0.36	0.49	0.68	0.92	1.11	1.63
0930	2,226	0.27	0.31	0.39	0.53	0.73	0.96	1.17	1.69
1030	2,226	0.34	0.40	0.50	0.68	0.90	1.23	1.48	2.05

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	55.4%	938	—
0.5-0.85	52.4%	859	—
0.85-1.05	52.4%	185	—
1.05-1.25	56.8%	74	—
>1.25	52.3%	88	—

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

SCENERY: no measurable difference - this level behaves like any other price at that distance.
PULLS: price reached this level clearly more often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.
REPELS: price reached this level clearly less often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	52553.74	24.74	94.6%	241	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	52578.47	49.47	83.7%	147	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	52603.21	74.21	74.6%	110	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	52627.94	98.94	71.7%	92	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	52652.68	123.68	58.1%	86	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	52677.41	148.41	57.7%	97	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	52726.89	197.89	46.9%	81	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	52776.36	247.36	39.6%	91	PULLS	—
0.75	up	52900.04	371.04	25.0%	56	PULLS	—
1.00	up	53023.71	494.71	8.3%	24	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	53271.07	742.07	0.0%	4	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	52504.26	24.74	91.5%	258	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	52479.53	49.47	84.7%	150	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	52454.79	74.21	72.3%	166	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	52430.06	98.94	60.5%	129	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	52405.32	123.68	60.4%	111	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	52380.59	148.41	50.8%	132	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	52331.11	197.89	46.4%	97	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	52281.64	247.36	36.8%	87	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	52157.96	371.04	14.6%	41	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	52034.29	494.71	7.7%	13	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	51786.93	742.07	25.0%	4	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	52553.74	24.74	94.8%	116	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	52578.47	49.47	77.1%	105	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	52603.21	74.21	68.4%	114	REPELS	—
0.20	up	52627.94	98.94	59.0%	117	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	52652.68	123.68	50.4%	117	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	52677.41	148.41	46.9%	143	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	52726.89	197.89	36.5%	159	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	52776.36	247.36	24.5%	249	REPELS	—
0.75	up	52900.04	371.04	17.0%	259	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	53023.71	494.71	7.6%	159	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	53271.07	742.07	1.1%	93	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	52504.26	24.74	88.7%	124	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	52479.53	49.47	77.4%	62	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	52454.79	74.21	67.7%	65	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	52430.06	98.94	68.9%	45	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	52405.32	123.68	58.5%	53	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	52380.59	148.41	42.2%	45	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	52331.11	197.89	29.8%	47	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	52281.64	247.36	19.2%	52	REPELS	—
0.75	down	52157.96	371.04	22.2%	18	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	52034.29	494.71	16.7%	12	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	51786.93	742.07	40.0%	5	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	52553.74	24.74	95.0%	80	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	52578.47	49.47	77.8%	36	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	52603.21	74.21	72.7%	33	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	52627.94	98.94	61.8%	34	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	52652.68	123.68	62.5%	32	PULLS	—
0.30	up	52677.41	148.41	88.0%	25	PULLS	—
0.40	up	52726.89	197.89	50.0%	34	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	52776.36	247.36	42.1%	38	PULLS	—
0.75	up	52900.04	371.04	33.3%	30	PULLS	—
1.00	up	53023.71	494.71	10.0%	10	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	53271.07	742.07	27.3%	11	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	52504.26	24.74	95.2%	104	PULLS	—
0.10	down	52479.53	49.47	81.8%	88	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.15	down	52454.79	74.21	67.9%	81	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	52430.06	98.94	69.7%	89	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	52405.32	123.68	58.3%	96	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	52380.59	148.41	48.0%	148	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	52331.11	197.89	35.6%	191	REPELS	—
0.50	down	52281.64	247.36	28.4%	324	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	52157.96	371.04	16.3%	319	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	52034.29	494.71	7.4%	271	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	51786.93	742.07	4.4%	114	SCENERY	—

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	52553.74	24.74	93.2%	148	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	52578.47	49.47	85.9%	92	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	52603.21	74.21	71.6%	88	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	52627.94	98.94	58.3%	84	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	52652.68	123.68	60.0%	60	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	52677.41	148.41	59.6%	94	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	52726.89	197.89	45.2%	84	PULLS	—
0.50	up	52776.36	247.36	32.1%	140	PULLS	—
0.75	up	52900.04	371.04	24.3%	74	PULLS	—
1.00	up	53023.71	494.71	13.2%	68	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	53271.07	742.07	5.0%	20	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	52504.26	24.74	90.3%	165	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	52479.53	49.47	83.8%	111	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	52454.79	74.21	71.9%	96	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	52430.06	98.94	59.5%	116	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	52405.32	123.68	51.1%	88	REPELS	—
0.30	down	52380.59	148.41	52.1%	117	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	52331.11	197.89	34.5%	139	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	52281.64	247.36	29.8%	178	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	52157.96	371.04	13.6%	154	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	52034.29	494.71	10.9%	64	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	51786.93	742.07	13.3%	15	SCENERY	—

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	52553.74	24.74	93.2%	190	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	52578.47	49.47	88.1%	135	PULLS	—
0.15	up	52603.21	74.21	75.8%	95	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	52627.94	98.94	68.8%	77	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	52652.68	123.68	56.6%	76	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	52677.41	148.41	59.6%	99	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	52726.89	197.89	54.6%	77	PULLS	—
0.50	up	52776.36	247.36	39.2%	97	PULLS	—
0.75	up	52900.04	371.04	26.9%	67	PULLS	—
1.00	up	53023.71	494.71	22.0%	41	PULLS	—
1.50	up	53271.07	742.07	14.3%	14	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	52504.26	24.74	94.6%	185	PULLS	—
0.10	down	52479.53	49.47	81.8%	137	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	52454.79	74.21	67.9%	109	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	52430.06	98.94	71.6%	109	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	52405.32	123.68	54.6%	119	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	52380.59	148.41	56.1%	123	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	52331.11	197.89	36.4%	129	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	52281.64	247.36	25.2%	135	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	52157.96	371.04	19.0%	79	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	52034.29	494.71	11.5%	26	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	51786.93	742.07	27.3%	11	Not enough data (n<30)	—

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	52553.74	24.74	92.3%	378	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	52578.47	49.47	85.1%	214	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	52603.21	74.21	74.4%	129	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	52627.94	98.94	77.8%	90	PULLS	—
0.25	up	52652.68	123.68	78.4%	74	PULLS	—
0.30	up	52677.41	148.41	58.0%	69	PULLS	—
0.40	up	52726.89	197.89	54.1%	37	PULLS	—
0.50	up	52776.36	247.36	42.1%	19	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	52900.04	371.04	28.6%	7	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	53271.07	742.07	—	0	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	52504.26	24.74	90.8%	412	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	52479.53	49.47	78.8%	250	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	52454.79	74.21	72.1%	197	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	52430.06	98.94	65.0%	120	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	52405.32	123.68	68.6%	86	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	52380.59	148.41	60.9%	69	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	52331.11	197.89	56.8%	44	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	52281.64	247.36	15.8%	19	REPELS	—
0.75	down	52157.96	371.04	42.9%	7	Not enough data (n<30)	—

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	53.4%	2,144	—
up >0.20	79.9%	259	—
up 0.10-0.20	65.5%	325	—
up 0.05-0.10	57.7%	248	—
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	54.8%	507	—
dn 0.05-0.10	38.8%	250	moved since 2018
dn 0.10-0.20	39.2%	291	—
dn >0.20	35.6%	264	—

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	37.7%	2,221
RTH low is final by 10:30	42.1%	2,221
Both high and low final by 10:30	4.2%	2,221
Low comes before high (full day)	52.0%	2,221
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	49.5%	2,221

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.8%	6,484	—
[0.25,0.5)	67.3%	7,988	—
[0.5,0.75)	72.0%	2,343	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	69.9%	652	—
[1.0,1.25)	64.3%	193	—
[1.25,1.5)	71.8%	71	moved since 2018
[1.5,2.0)	96.7%	30	—
>=2.0	28.6%	7	—

Low is in before the high

Share of days where the RTH low / high of the day has already been set, by clock checkpoint.

By 15:00 the low is already in 81% of days, the high 74%.

checkpoint	low in %	high in %	diff	n
09:45	25.8%	24.2%	+1.5	2,221
10:30	42.1%	37.7%	+4.4	2,221
12:00	58.6%	53.2%	+5.4	2,221
14:00	72.9%	66.3%	+6.7	2,221
15:00	81.3%	74.2%	+7.1	2,221

Don't fade a stretched day

At each checkpoint, chance the day's range still extends >=0.05 ATR further by the 16:00 close, by how far the range has already stretched.

range so far (ATR)	10:30	12:00	14:00
<0.80	61.0%	46.6%	31.7%
0.80-1.05	72.7% reading, not a rule (n=55)	51.0%	35.7%
1.05-1.25	79.0% reading, not a rule (n=19)	64.3% reading, not a rule (n=42)	39.4% reading, not a rule (n=71)
>=1.25	44.4% reading, not a rule (n=9)	70.3% reading, not a rule (n=37)	47.0% reading, not a rule (n=83)

Yesterday's close vs. prior day range

R1/R2 use the full session (18:00-17:00 ET) close and prior-day range, not RTH -- see the note on the JSON for how this differs from the named-levels section above.

R1: yesterday's close broke above the older high (bullish, target = yesterday's high) (n: 1,220)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
78.2% (base 53.3%)	76.5% (base 47.7%)	53.4% (base 53.9%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~81%.

R2: yesterday's close broke below the older low (bearish, target = yesterday's low) (n: 845)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
71.8% (base 46.2%)	69.5% (base 39.3%)	47.1% (base 45.8%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~82%.

Show 77%+ only

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.