Daily wrap-up — 2026-08-20

Predictions are P(touch) on ±0.5 ATR, frozen before the session opens. This is a calibration check, not a directional "win" or "loss".

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

predictions

٢٤

٢٤ evaluated · ٠ pending

mean predicted

٤٠٫٣%

average P(touch) across evaluated predictions

realized share

٤١٫٧%

share of evaluated predictions that touched

calibration gap

+١٫٣٩ pp

realized share minus mean predicted

Brier score

٠٫٢٤٥

mean squared error of predicted vs. outcome — lower is better, 0 is perfect

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
WTI Crude	+0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٥%	not touched
WTI Crude	-0.50 ATR	٤١٫٣%	touched
E-mini S&P 500	+0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٧%	not touched
E-mini S&P 500	-0.50 ATR	٤٠٫٦%	touched
Gold	+0.50 ATR	٣٨٫٤%	touched
Gold	-0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٧%	not touched
E-mini Nasdaq 100	+0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٧%	not touched
E-mini Nasdaq 100	-0.50 ATR	٤٠٫٦%	not touched
E-mini Russell 2000	+0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٧%	not touched
E-mini Russell 2000	-0.50 ATR	٤٠٫٦%	touched
E-mini Dow	+0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٧%	not touched
E-mini Dow	-0.50 ATR	٤٠٫٦%	touched

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Apple	+0.50 ATR	٤١٫٨%	not touched
Apple	-0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٧%	touched
Microsoft	+0.50 ATR	٤١٫٨%	not touched
Microsoft	-0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٧%	not touched
Nvidia	+0.50 ATR	٤١٫٨%	not touched
Nvidia	-0.50 ATR	٣٩٫٧%	not touched
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	+0.50 ATR	٤٠٫٨%	not touched
S&P 500 ETF (SPY)	-0.50 ATR	٤٢٫٠%	touched

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Bitcoin	+0.50 ATR	٣٧٫٩%	touched
Bitcoin	-0.50 ATR	٤١٫٩%	not touched
Ethereum	+0.50 ATR	٣٧٫٩%	touched
Ethereum	-0.50 ATR	٤١٫٩%	touched