Daily wrap-up — 2026-08-22

Predictions are P(touch) on ±0.5 ATR, frozen before the session opens. This is a calibration check, not a directional "win" or "loss".

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

predictions

٤ evaluated · ٠ pending

mean predicted

٢٨٫٧%

average P(touch) across evaluated predictions

realized share

٥٠٫٠%

share of evaluated predictions that touched

calibration gap

+٢١٫٢٩ pp

realized share minus mean predicted

Brier score

٠٫٣٠٧

mean squared error of predicted vs. outcome — lower is better, 0 is perfect

symbol	direction	predicted p	outcome
Bitcoin	+0.50 ATR	٢٩٫٨%	not touched
Bitcoin	-0.50 ATR	٢٧٫٦%	touched
Ethereum	+0.50 ATR	٢٩٫٨%	not touched
Ethereum	-0.50 ATR	٢٧٫٦%	touched