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Brackets — what-if TP/SL

Just want the odds for one price level? Target Odds →

Pick a market entry time, direction, take-profit and stop-loss distance (in ATR multiples). We show which one historically got hit first — a what-if lookup, not a recommendation. Scope: index, energy, metals futures.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

FOXALGO / BRACKETS INSTRUMENT 01
SCOPE indexLONGT=0M

TP/SL FIRST-HIT MATRIX

TP 0.1TP 0.25TP 0.5TP 0.75TP 1TP 1.5SL 0.1SL 0.25SL 0.5SL 0.75SL 1SL 1.548.3%30.1%17.8%11.6%7.9%3.3%69.5%50.5%33.1%21.8%14.6%6.2%82.7%67.1%46.5%31.1%21.3%9.5%87.5%73.2%51.8%34.8%23.9%10.5%89.4%76.0%54.3%36.3%24.9%11.0%90.6%77.5%55.8%37.4%25.7%11.3%
P(TP first):0–20%20–40%40–60%60–80%80–100%

Raw view for the single combination selected above:

TP hit first
30.1%
n = 10,217
SL hit first
69.8%
n = 10,217
Neither by close
0.1%
expected end distance: 0.058 ATR

"First hit" resolves the case where both TP and SL are inside the same bar's range using the what-if convention documented in methodology — it is not proof of fill order, only a modeling choice applied consistently.