6E roadmap

Held era only (2,226 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-10) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

測定済みのオッズ。売買指示なし。意味 →

Current price: 1.1592 · ATR14: 0.0027 · 09:30 open: 1.1611

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1612	0.0001	88.6%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	1.1610	0.0001	89.5%	2,224	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	1.1614	0.0003	76.9%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1608	0.0003	78.5%	2,224	LIKELY
0.15	up	1.1615	0.0004	64.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1607	0.0004	68.0%	2,224	COIN FLIP
0.20	up	1.1616	0.0005	53.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	1.1606	0.0005	57.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1618	0.0007	45.0%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1604	0.0007	48.3%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1619	0.0008	37.4%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1603	0.0008	40.1%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1622	0.0011	25.9%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1600	0.0011	27.6%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1625	0.0013	18.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1598	0.0013	18.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1631	0.0020	6.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1591	0.0020	6.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1638	0.0027	2.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1584	0.0027	2.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1652	0.0040	0.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	1.1571	0.0040	0.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	89.3%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	—	—	89.0%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.10	up	—	—	77.4%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	78.5%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	—	—	67.3%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	—	—	69.7%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	—	—	57.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	—	—	60.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	—	—	49.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	—	—	51.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	42.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	down	—	—	44.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.40	up	—	—	29.5%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	33.1%	2,224	STRETCH
0.50	up	—	—	20.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	23.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT
0.75	up	—	—	8.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	—	—	8.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	—	—	3.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	—	—	3.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	—	—	0.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	—	—	0.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,225	0.39	0.44	0.53	0.68	0.89	1.12	1.33	1.87
0930	2,225	0.41	0.46	0.56	0.73	0.94	1.20	1.40	1.93
1030	2,225	0.44	0.50	0.61	0.79	1.03	1.31	1.54	2.09

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	54.2%	334
0.5-0.85	56.9%	1,074
0.85-1.05	59.9%	404
1.05-1.25	55.9%	186
>1.25	57.2%	180	moved since 2018

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1612	0.0001	92.9%	168	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.1614	0.0003	85.4%	82	SCENERY
0.15	up	1.1615	0.0004	73.0%	89	PULLS
0.20	up	1.1616	0.0005	52.6%	95	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1618	0.0007	49.5%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1619	0.0008	29.5%	112	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1622	0.0011	28.2%	135	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1625	0.0013	13.7%	182	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1631	0.0020	8.4%	119	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1638	0.0027	0.0%	43	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1652	0.0040	0.0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	1.1610	0.0001	91.2%	137	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1608	0.0003	83.2%	113	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1607	0.0004	66.3%	92	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.1606	0.0005	49.0%	96	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1604	0.0007	48.3%	89	SCENERY
0.30	down	1.1603	0.0008	37.3%	110	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1600	0.0011	31.8%	126	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1598	0.0013	20.3%	153	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1591	0.0020	10.8%	111	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1584	0.0027	6.5%	46	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1571	0.0040	0.0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1612	0.0001	90.9%	110	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.1614	0.0003	79.2%	77	SCENERY
0.15	up	1.1615	0.0004	59.6%	89	REPELS
0.20	up	1.1616	0.0005	54.9%	91	SCENERY
0.25	up	1.1618	0.0007	33.7%	98	REPELS
0.30	up	1.1619	0.0008	31.5%	124	REPELS
0.40	up	1.1622	0.0011	25.5%	165	REPELS
0.50	up	1.1625	0.0013	19.2%	297	SCENERY
0.75	up	1.1631	0.0020	7.5%	267	SCENERY
1.00	up	1.1638	0.0027	2.0%	205	SCENERY
1.50	up	1.1652	0.0040	1.3%	76	SCENERY
0.05	down	1.1610	0.0001	82.6%	86	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1608	0.0003	72.2%	54	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1607	0.0004	70.5%	61	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.1606	0.0005	60.5%	38	PULLS
0.25	down	1.1604	0.0007	45.5%	44	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1603	0.0008	46.9%	64	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1600	0.0011	29.8%	67	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1598	0.0013	24.7%	81	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1591	0.0020	5.3%	57	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1584	0.0027	8.3%	36	PULLS
1.50	down	1.1571	0.0040	0.0%	12	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1612	0.0001	91.5%	118	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.1614	0.0003	84.9%	66	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.1615	0.0004	60.0%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1616	0.0005	59.7%	62	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1618	0.0007	38.1%	63	SCENERY
0.30	up	1.1619	0.0008	37.9%	58	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1622	0.0011	24.6%	69	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1625	0.0013	11.1%	90	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1631	0.0020	7.8%	51	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1638	0.0027	0.0%	21	PULLS
1.50	up	1.1652	0.0040	0.0%	5	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	1.1610	0.0001	93.2%	103	SCENERY
0.10	down	1.1608	0.0003	90.0%	80	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1607	0.0004	67.7%	93	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.1606	0.0005	52.2%	90	SCENERY
0.25	down	1.1604	0.0007	49.4%	79	SCENERY
0.30	down	1.1603	0.0008	35.6%	132	REPELS
0.40	down	1.1600	0.0011	31.0%	174	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1598	0.0013	16.7%	263	REPELS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1591	0.0020	6.9%	232	SCENERY
1.00	down	1.1584	0.0027	4.1%	194	SCENERY
1.50	down	1.1571	0.0040	1.2%	86	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1612	0.0001	89.3%	131	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	1.1614	0.0003	72.4%	87	SCENERY
0.15	up	1.1615	0.0004	58.6%	87	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1616	0.0005	50.5%	95	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1618	0.0007	43.4%	76	SCENERY
0.30	up	1.1619	0.0008	41.0%	117	SCENERY
0.40	up	1.1622	0.0011	27.4%	113	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1625	0.0013	12.3%	179	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1631	0.0020	4.0%	149	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1638	0.0027	1.3%	76	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1652	0.0040	0.0%	21	PULLS
0.05	down	1.1610	0.0001	94.5%	145	PULLS
0.10	down	1.1608	0.0003	77.4%	93	SCENERY
0.15	down	1.1607	0.0004	59.0%	95	REPELS
0.20	down	1.1606	0.0005	53.0%	66	SCENERY
0.25	down	1.1604	0.0007	48.4%	64	SCENERY
0.30	down	1.1603	0.0008	31.9%	91	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1600	0.0011	22.6%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1598	0.0013	17.1%	140	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1591	0.0020	11.0%	154	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1584	0.0027	2.7%	74	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1571	0.0040	5.3%	38	PULLS

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1612	0.0001	90.3%	155	SCENERY
0.10	up	1.1614	0.0003	69.2%	78	SCENERY
0.15	up	1.1615	0.0004	53.6%	97	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1616	0.0005	47.3%	74	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1618	0.0007	48.4%	97	SCENERY
0.30	up	1.1619	0.0008	35.7%	112	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1622	0.0011	29.0%	124	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1625	0.0013	15.0%	153	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1631	0.0020	4.8%	147	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1638	0.0027	1.7%	58	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1652	0.0040	0.0%	12	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	1.1610	0.0001	92.4%	131	SCENERY
0.10	down	1.1608	0.0003	77.7%	94	SCENERY
0.15	down	1.1607	0.0004	63.4%	82	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.1606	0.0005	49.3%	75	SCENERY
0.25	down	1.1604	0.0007	50.0%	84	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1603	0.0008	35.9%	106	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1600	0.0011	22.5%	120	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1598	0.0013	21.8%	142	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1591	0.0020	9.9%	132	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1584	0.0027	6.2%	65	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1571	0.0040	0.0%	25	PULLS

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1612	0.0001	93.1%	261	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	1.1614	0.0003	78.5%	158	SCENERY
0.15	up	1.1615	0.0004	63.1%	168	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1616	0.0005	51.9%	129	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1618	0.0007	45.3%	117	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1619	0.0008	35.9%	128	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1622	0.0011	33.3%	120	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1625	0.0013	8.5%	47	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1631	0.0020	0.0%	17	PULLS
1.00	up	1.1638	0.0027	25.0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	up	1.1652	0.0040	0.0%	1	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	1.1610	0.0001	93.1%	231	SCENERY
0.10	down	1.1608	0.0003	76.3%	160	SCENERY
0.15	down	1.1607	0.0004	72.2%	144	SCENERY
0.20	down	1.1606	0.0005	50.8%	118	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1604	0.0007	47.7%	107	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1603	0.0008	42.5%	134	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1600	0.0011	26.0%	104	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1598	0.0013	27.3%	55	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1591	0.0020	18.8%	16	PULLS
1.00	down	1.1584	0.0027	20.0%	5	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	down	1.1571	0.0040	—	0	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	46.7%	2,178	moved since 2018
up >0.20	69.6%	56
up 0.10-0.20	59.8%	204	moved since 2018
up 0.05-0.10	54.4%	316	moved since 2018
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	47.2%	1,024	moved since 2018
dn 0.05-0.10	39.7%	315
dn 0.10-0.20	28.8%	212
dn >0.20	27.5%	51

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	42.5%	2,224
RTH low is final by 10:30	39.6%	2,224
Both high and low final by 10:30	5.5%	2,224
Low comes before high (full day)	48.2%	2,224
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	49.1%	2,224

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.7%	10,458	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	61.9%	5,770	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	61.8%	1,207	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	60.6%	231	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	74.7%	71	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	40.4%	47	moved since 2018
[1.5,2.0)	62.5%	8
>=2.0	—	0

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.