6E roadmap

Held era only (2,226 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-10) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 1.1260 · ATR14: 0.0037 · 09:30 open: 1.1251

Every probability below is measured on 2018-01-01 onward only (the most recent regime), never on the pooled full history: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 period and 2018 onward, so only the recent number ships. The era flag marks a cell that moved between the two periods -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1253	0.0002	88.6%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	1.1249	0.0002	89.5%	2,224	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	1.1255	0.0004	76.9%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1247	0.0004	78.5%	2,224	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	1.1257	0.0006	64.5%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1245	0.0006	68.0%	2,224	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	up	1.1258	0.0007	53.7%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	1.1244	0.0007	57.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1260	0.0009	45.0%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1242	0.0009	48.3%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1262	0.0011	37.4%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1240	0.0011	40.1%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1266	0.0015	25.9%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1236	0.0015	27.6%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1270	0.0019	18.1%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1232	0.0019	18.4%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1279	0.0028	6.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1223	0.0028	6.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1288	0.0037	2.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1214	0.0037	2.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1307	0.0056	0.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	1.1195	0.0056	0.3%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	89.3%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.05	down	—	—	89.0%	2,224	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.10	up	—	—	77.4%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	78.5%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	—	—	67.3%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	—	—	69.7%	2,224	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	—	—	57.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.20	down	—	—	60.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	up	—	—	49.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	—	—	51.9%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	42.4%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	down	—	—	44.6%	2,224	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.40	up	—	—	29.5%	2,224	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	33.1%	2,224	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	—	—	20.9%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	23.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	up	—	—	8.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	—	—	8.7%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	up	—	—	3.8%	2,224	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	—	—	3.2%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	—	—	0.6%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	—	—	0.5%	2,224	LONG SHOT	—

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,225	0.39	0.44	0.53	0.68	0.89	1.12	1.33	1.87
0930	2,225	0.41	0.46	0.56	0.73	0.94	1.20	1.40	1.93
1030	2,225	0.44	0.50	0.61	0.79	1.03	1.31	1.54	2.09

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	54.2%	334	—
0.5-0.85	56.9%	1,074	—
0.85-1.05	59.9%	404	—
1.05-1.25	55.9%	186	—
>1.25	57.2%	180	moved since 2018

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

SCENERY: no measurable difference - this level behaves like any other price at that distance.
PULLS: price reached this level clearly more often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.
REPELS: price reached this level clearly less often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1253	0.0002	92.9%	168	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.1255	0.0004	85.4%	82	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1257	0.0006	73.0%	89	PULLS	—
0.20	up	1.1258	0.0007	52.6%	95	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1260	0.0009	49.5%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1262	0.0011	29.5%	112	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1266	0.0015	28.2%	135	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1270	0.0019	13.7%	182	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1279	0.0028	8.4%	119	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1288	0.0037	0.0%	43	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1307	0.0056	0.0%	10	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.1249	0.0002	91.2%	137	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1247	0.0004	83.2%	113	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1245	0.0006	66.3%	92	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1244	0.0007	49.0%	96	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1242	0.0009	48.3%	89	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.1240	0.0011	37.3%	110	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1236	0.0015	31.8%	126	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1232	0.0019	20.3%	153	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1223	0.0028	10.8%	111	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1214	0.0037	6.5%	46	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1195	0.0056	0.0%	10	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1253	0.0002	90.9%	110	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.1255	0.0004	79.2%	77	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1257	0.0006	59.6%	89	REPELS	—
0.20	up	1.1258	0.0007	54.9%	91	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	1.1260	0.0009	33.7%	98	REPELS	—
0.30	up	1.1262	0.0011	31.5%	124	REPELS	—
0.40	up	1.1266	0.0015	25.5%	165	REPELS	—
0.50	up	1.1270	0.0019	19.2%	297	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	1.1279	0.0028	7.5%	267	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	1.1288	0.0037	2.0%	205	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	1.1307	0.0056	1.3%	76	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	1.1249	0.0002	82.6%	86	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	1.1247	0.0004	72.2%	54	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1245	0.0006	70.5%	61	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1244	0.0007	60.5%	38	PULLS	—
0.25	down	1.1242	0.0009	45.5%	44	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1240	0.0011	46.9%	64	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1236	0.0015	29.8%	67	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1232	0.0019	24.7%	81	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1223	0.0028	5.3%	57	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1214	0.0037	8.3%	36	PULLS	—
1.50	down	1.1195	0.0056	0.0%	12	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1253	0.0002	91.5%	118	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.1255	0.0004	84.9%	66	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.15	up	1.1257	0.0006	60.0%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1258	0.0007	59.7%	62	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1260	0.0009	38.1%	63	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.1262	0.0011	37.9%	58	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1266	0.0015	24.6%	69	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1270	0.0019	11.1%	90	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1279	0.0028	7.8%	51	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1288	0.0037	0.0%	21	PULLS	—
1.50	up	1.1307	0.0056	0.0%	5	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.1249	0.0002	93.2%	103	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.1247	0.0004	90.0%	80	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	1.1245	0.0006	67.7%	93	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1244	0.0007	52.2%	90	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.1242	0.0009	49.4%	79	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.1240	0.0011	35.6%	132	REPELS	—
0.40	down	1.1236	0.0015	31.0%	174	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1232	0.0019	16.7%	263	REPELS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1223	0.0028	6.9%	232	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	1.1214	0.0037	4.1%	194	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	1.1195	0.0056	1.2%	86	SCENERY	—

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1253	0.0002	89.3%	131	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	1.1255	0.0004	72.4%	87	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1257	0.0006	58.6%	87	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1258	0.0007	50.5%	95	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1260	0.0009	43.4%	76	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.1262	0.0011	41.0%	117	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	1.1266	0.0015	27.4%	113	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1270	0.0019	12.3%	179	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1279	0.0028	4.0%	149	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1288	0.0037	1.3%	76	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1307	0.0056	0.0%	21	PULLS	—
0.05	down	1.1249	0.0002	94.5%	145	PULLS	—
0.10	down	1.1247	0.0004	77.4%	93	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.1245	0.0006	59.0%	95	REPELS	—
0.20	down	1.1244	0.0007	53.0%	66	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.1242	0.0009	48.4%	64	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	1.1240	0.0011	31.9%	91	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1236	0.0015	22.6%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1232	0.0019	17.1%	140	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1223	0.0028	11.0%	154	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1214	0.0037	2.7%	74	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1195	0.0056	5.3%	38	PULLS	—

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1253	0.0002	90.3%	155	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	1.1255	0.0004	69.2%	78	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1257	0.0006	53.6%	97	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1258	0.0007	47.3%	74	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1260	0.0009	48.4%	97	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	1.1262	0.0011	35.7%	112	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1266	0.0015	29.0%	124	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1270	0.0019	15.0%	153	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1279	0.0028	4.8%	147	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	up	1.1288	0.0037	1.7%	58	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	up	1.1307	0.0056	0.0%	12	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.1249	0.0002	92.4%	131	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.1247	0.0004	77.7%	94	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.1245	0.0006	63.4%	82	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1244	0.0007	49.3%	75	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	1.1242	0.0009	50.0%	84	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1240	0.0011	35.9%	106	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1236	0.0015	22.5%	120	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1232	0.0019	21.8%	142	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1223	0.0028	9.9%	132	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	1.1214	0.0037	6.2%	65	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	1.1195	0.0056	0.0%	25	PULLS	—

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	1.1253	0.0002	93.1%	261	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	1.1255	0.0004	78.5%	158	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	1.1257	0.0006	63.1%	168	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	1.1258	0.0007	51.9%	129	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	up	1.1260	0.0009	45.3%	117	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	1.1262	0.0011	35.9%	128	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	up	1.1266	0.0015	33.3%	120	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	up	1.1270	0.0019	8.5%	47	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	1.1279	0.0028	0.0%	17	PULLS	—
1.00	up	1.1288	0.0037	25.0%	4	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	1.1307	0.0056	0.0%	1	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	1.1249	0.0002	93.1%	231	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	1.1247	0.0004	76.3%	160	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	1.1245	0.0006	72.2%	144	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	1.1244	0.0007	50.8%	118	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	1.1242	0.0009	47.7%	107	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	1.1240	0.0011	42.5%	134	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.40	down	1.1236	0.0015	26.0%	104	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.50	down	1.1232	0.0019	27.3%	55	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	down	1.1223	0.0028	18.8%	16	PULLS	—
1.00	down	1.1214	0.0037	20.0%	5	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	1.1195	0.0056	—	0	Not enough data (n<30)	—

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	46.7%	2,178	moved since 2018
up >0.20	69.6%	56	—
up 0.10-0.20	59.8%	204	moved since 2018
up 0.05-0.10	54.4%	316	moved since 2018
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	47.2%	1,024	moved since 2018
dn 0.05-0.10	39.7%	315	—
dn 0.10-0.20	28.8%	212	—
dn >0.20	27.5%	51	—

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	42.5%	2,224
RTH low is final by 10:30	39.6%	2,224
Both high and low final by 10:30	5.5%	2,224
Low comes before high (full day)	48.2%	2,224
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	49.1%	2,224

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.7%	10,458	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	61.9%	5,770	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	61.8%	1,207	moved since 2018
[0.75,1.0)	60.6%	231	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	74.7%	71	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	40.4%	47	moved since 2018
[1.5,2.0)	62.5%	8	—
>=2.0	—	0	—

Low is in before the high

Share of days where the RTH low / high of the day has already been set, by clock checkpoint.

By 15:00 the low is already in 88% of days, the high 89%.

checkpoint	low in %	high in %	diff	n
09:45	19.3%	19.8%	-0.5	2,224
10:30	39.6%	42.5%	-2.9	2,224
12:00	61.5%	65.0%	-3.6	2,224
14:00	78.6%	80.8%	-2.2	2,224
15:00	87.8%	89.2%	-1.4	2,224

Don't fade a stretched day

At each checkpoint, chance the day's range still extends >=0.05 ATR further by the 16:00 close, by how far the range has already stretched.

range so far (ATR)	10:30	12:00	14:00
<0.80	57.0%	35.8%	17.7%
0.80-1.05	70.6% reading, not a rule (n=17)	57.4% reading, not a rule (n=54)	33.9% reading, not a rule (n=109)
1.05-1.25	75.0% reading, not a rule (n=4)	53.8% reading, not a rule (n=13)	23.3% reading, not a rule (n=30)
>=1.25	40.0% reading, not a rule (n=5)	36.4% reading, not a rule (n=22)	20.6% reading, not a rule (n=34)

Yesterday's close vs. prior day range

R1/R2 use the full session (18:00-17:00 ET) close and prior-day range, not RTH -- see the note on the JSON for how this differs from the named-levels section above.

R1: yesterday's close broke above the older high (bullish, target = yesterday's high) (n: 974)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
71.6% (base 48.4%)	70.5% (base 42.6%)	47.0% (base 48.6%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~80%.

R2: yesterday's close broke below the older low (bearish, target = yesterday's low) (n: 1,016)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
73.3% (base 50.2%)	71.7% (base 44.7%)	49.1% (base 50.9%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~81%.

Show 77%+ only

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.