NQ roadmap

Held era only (2,228 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

測定済みのオッズ。売買指示なし。意味 →

Current price: 29136.75 · ATR14: 274.88 · 09:30 open: 29485.00

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	29498.74	13.74	90.2%	2,222	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	29471.26	13.74	89.0%	2,222	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	29512.49	27.49	81.8%	2,222	LIKELY
0.10	down	29457.51	27.49	81.0%	2,222	LIKELY
0.15	up	29526.23	41.23	73.3%	2,222	LIKELY
0.15	down	29443.77	41.23	71.3%	2,222	LIKELY
0.20	up	29539.98	54.98	66.0%	2,222	COIN FLIP
0.20	down	29430.03	54.98	63.1%	2,222	COIN FLIP
0.25	up	29553.72	68.72	58.7%	2,222	COIN FLIP
0.25	down	29416.28	68.72	55.5%	2,222	COIN FLIP
0.30	up	29567.46	82.46	52.6%	2,222	COIN FLIP
0.30	down	29402.54	82.46	50.3%	2,222	COIN FLIP
0.40	up	29594.95	109.95	40.0%	2,222	STRETCH
0.40	down	29375.05	109.95	40.7%	2,222	STRETCH
0.50	up	29622.44	137.44	30.2%	2,222	STRETCH
0.50	down	29347.56	137.44	31.0%	2,222	STRETCH
0.75	up	29691.16	206.16	12.9%	2,222	LONG SHOT
0.75	down	29278.84	206.16	17.2%	2,222	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	29759.88	274.88	5.4%	2,222	LONG SHOT
1.00	down	29210.13	274.88	10.1%	2,222	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	29897.31	412.31	0.8%	2,222	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	29072.69	412.31	2.8%	2,222	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	90.6%	2,225	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	—	—	90.1%	2,225	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	—	—	82.3%	2,225	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	81.4%	2,225	LIKELY
0.15	up	—	—	74.3%	2,225	LIKELY
0.15	down	—	—	73.4%	2,225	LIKELY
0.20	up	—	—	66.5%	2,225	COIN FLIP
0.20	down	—	—	65.5%	2,225	COIN FLIP
0.25	up	—	—	58.9%	2,225	COIN FLIP
0.25	down	—	—	58.0%	2,225	COIN FLIP
0.30	up	—	—	52.2%	2,225	COIN FLIP
0.30	down	—	—	51.8%	2,225	COIN FLIP
0.40	up	—	—	40.4%	2,225	STRETCH
0.40	down	—	—	42.1%	2,225	STRETCH
0.50	up	—	—	30.0%	2,225	STRETCH
0.50	down	—	—	32.9%	2,225	STRETCH
0.75	up	—	—	12.5%	2,225	LONG SHOT
0.75	down	—	—	17.9%	2,225	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	—	—	5.4%	2,225	LONG SHOT
1.00	down	—	—	10.2%	2,225	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	—	—	0.9%	2,225	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	—	—	2.8%	2,225	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,227	0.25	0.29	0.36	0.50	0.68	0.89	1.07	1.59
0930	2,227	0.27	0.30	0.39	0.52	0.71	0.94	1.12	1.62
1030	2,227	0.33	0.39	0.51	0.67	0.91	1.20	1.42	1.96

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	49.7%	963	moved since 2018
0.5-0.85	48.4%	859
0.85-1.05	51.7%	176
1.05-1.25	46.0%	74
>1.25	45.2%	73

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	29498.74	13.74	91.5%	246	SCENERY
0.10	up	29512.49	27.49	77.6%	147	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	29526.23	41.23	75.2%	109	SCENERY
0.20	up	29539.98	54.98	73.7%	95	PULLS
0.25	up	29553.72	68.72	59.8%	92	SCENERY
0.30	up	29567.46	82.46	61.9%	97	SCENERY
0.40	up	29594.95	109.95	49.4%	87	PULLS
0.50	up	29622.44	137.44	45.6%	79	PULLS
0.75	up	29691.16	206.16	22.7%	44	PULLS
1.00	up	29759.88	274.88	15.8%	19	SCENERY
1.50	up	29897.31	412.31	0.0%	6	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	29471.26	13.74	90.2%	275	SCENERY
0.10	down	29457.51	27.49	80.1%	161	SCENERY
0.15	down	29443.77	41.23	64.5%	155	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	29430.03	54.98	64.7%	116	SCENERY
0.25	down	29416.28	68.72	58.7%	121	SCENERY
0.30	down	29402.54	82.46	51.6%	126	SCENERY
0.40	down	29375.05	109.95	50.4%	119	SCENERY
0.50	down	29347.56	137.44	36.4%	88	SCENERY
0.75	down	29278.84	206.16	24.1%	29	SCENERY
1.00	down	29210.13	274.88	0.0%	6	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	down	29072.69	412.31	0.0%	2	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	29498.74	13.74	92.7%	150	SCENERY
0.10	up	29512.49	27.49	70.4%	108	REPELS
0.15	up	29526.23	41.23	68.4%	117	SCENERY
0.20	up	29539.98	54.98	66.7%	96	SCENERY
0.25	up	29553.72	68.72	63.5%	96	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	29567.46	82.46	49.3%	138	SCENERY
0.40	up	29594.95	109.95	39.6%	159	SCENERY
0.50	up	29622.44	137.44	20.5%	224	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	29691.16	206.16	16.9%	219	SCENERY
1.00	up	29759.88	274.88	7.0%	187	SCENERY
1.50	up	29897.31	412.31	4.3%	93	SCENERY
0.05	down	29471.26	13.74	93.2%	132	PULLS
0.10	down	29457.51	27.49	78.2%	87	SCENERY
0.15	down	29443.77	41.23	67.1%	73	SCENERY
0.20	down	29430.03	54.98	69.8%	43	SCENERY
0.25	down	29416.28	68.72	53.1%	49	SCENERY
0.30	down	29402.54	82.46	59.6%	47	SCENERY
0.40	down	29375.05	109.95	40.0%	60	SCENERY
0.50	down	29347.56	137.44	38.3%	47	SCENERY
0.75	down	29278.84	206.16	46.4%	28	PULLS
1.00	down	29210.13	274.88	0.0%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	down	29072.69	412.31	0.0%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	29498.74	13.74	92.4%	79	SCENERY
0.10	up	29512.49	27.49	85.4%	41	SCENERY
0.15	up	29526.23	41.23	84.4%	32	PULLS
0.20	up	29539.98	54.98	81.3%	32	PULLS
0.25	up	29553.72	68.72	47.8%	23	SCENERY
0.30	up	29567.46	82.46	58.3%	24	SCENERY
0.40	up	29594.95	109.95	54.8%	31	PULLS
0.50	up	29622.44	137.44	40.5%	42	SCENERY
0.75	up	29691.16	206.16	22.2%	27	PULLS
1.00	up	29759.88	274.88	33.3%	18	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	up	29897.31	412.31	0.0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	29471.26	13.74	93.3%	89	SCENERY
0.10	down	29457.51	27.49	87.3%	71	SCENERY
0.15	down	29443.77	41.23	63.4%	82	SCENERY
0.20	down	29430.03	54.98	72.9%	85	PULLS
0.25	down	29416.28	68.72	56.5%	92	SCENERY
0.30	down	29402.54	82.46	37.5%	136	REPELS
0.40	down	29375.05	109.95	39.9%	163	SCENERY
0.50	down	29347.56	137.44	27.0%	344	SCENERY
0.75	down	29278.84	206.16	16.3%	363	SCENERY
1.00	down	29210.13	274.88	8.2%	281	SCENERY
1.50	down	29072.69	412.31	7.1%	127	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	29498.74	13.74	92.0%	138	SCENERY
0.10	up	29512.49	27.49	87.6%	81	PULLS
0.15	up	29526.23	41.23	72.7%	88	SCENERY
0.20	up	29539.98	54.98	61.8%	68	SCENERY
0.25	up	29553.72	68.72	63.9%	61	SCENERY
0.30	up	29567.46	82.46	59.8%	97	SCENERY
0.40	up	29594.95	109.95	50.0%	82	PULLS
0.50	up	29622.44	137.44	27.3%	99	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	29691.16	206.16	27.3%	110	PULLS
1.00	up	29759.88	274.88	15.1%	53	PULLS
1.50	up	29897.31	412.31	3.6%	28	SCENERY
0.05	down	29471.26	13.74	92.7%	137	SCENERY
0.10	down	29457.51	27.49	79.0%	100	SCENERY
0.15	down	29443.77	41.23	62.6%	115	SCENERY
0.20	down	29430.03	54.98	61.4%	101	SCENERY
0.25	down	29416.28	68.72	50.5%	105	SCENERY
0.30	down	29402.54	82.46	48.9%	143	SCENERY
0.40	down	29375.05	109.95	41.1%	163	SCENERY
0.50	down	29347.56	137.44	27.7%	195	SCENERY
0.75	down	29278.84	206.16	17.4%	144	SCENERY
1.00	down	29210.13	274.88	25.0%	80	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	29072.69	412.31	0.0%	15	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	29498.74	13.74	90.4%	177	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	29512.49	27.49	88.1%	101	PULLS
0.15	up	29526.23	41.23	75.0%	96	SCENERY
0.20	up	29539.98	54.98	65.9%	85	SCENERY
0.25	up	29553.72	68.72	59.7%	72	SCENERY
0.30	up	29567.46	82.46	54.3%	81	SCENERY
0.40	up	29594.95	109.95	40.8%	76	SCENERY
0.50	up	29622.44	137.44	41.6%	101	PULLS
0.75	up	29691.16	206.16	27.6%	76	PULLS
1.00	up	29759.88	274.88	17.1%	41	PULLS
1.50	up	29897.31	412.31	0.0%	9	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	29471.26	13.74	92.9%	212	SCENERY
0.10	down	29457.51	27.49	83.7%	135	SCENERY
0.15	down	29443.77	41.23	62.0%	113	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	29430.03	54.98	59.1%	105	SCENERY
0.25	down	29416.28	68.72	58.9%	112	SCENERY
0.30	down	29402.54	82.46	48.1%	133	SCENERY
0.40	down	29375.05	109.95	41.1%	124	SCENERY
0.50	down	29347.56	137.44	31.1%	151	SCENERY
0.75	down	29278.84	206.16	32.2%	90	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	29210.13	274.88	22.6%	31	SCENERY
1.50	down	29072.69	412.31	0.0%	11	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	29498.74	13.74	89.4%	407	SCENERY
0.10	up	29512.49	27.49	81.1%	206	SCENERY
0.15	up	29526.23	41.23	76.2%	143	SCENERY
0.20	up	29539.98	54.98	66.7%	84	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.25	up	29553.72	68.72	67.7%	65	PULLS
0.30	up	29567.46	82.46	75.0%	52	PULLS
0.40	up	29594.95	109.95	59.4%	32	PULLS
0.50	up	29622.44	137.44	50.0%	16	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.75	up	29691.16	206.16	66.7%	6	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	up	29897.31	412.31	—	0	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	29471.26	13.74	91.1%	429	SCENERY
0.10	down	29457.51	27.49	77.0%	265	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	29443.77	41.23	71.7%	191	SCENERY
0.20	down	29430.03	54.98	71.4%	126	SCENERY
0.25	down	29416.28	68.72	60.0%	85	SCENERY
0.30	down	29402.54	82.46	59.0%	61	PULLS
0.40	down	29375.05	109.95	52.8%	36	SCENERY
0.50	down	29347.56	137.44	46.7%	15	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.75	down	29278.84	206.16	66.7%	3	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	down	29072.69	412.31	—	0	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n
ALL (pooled)	54.0%	2,145
up >0.20	75.3%	275
up 0.10-0.20	68.4%	358
up 0.05-0.10	61.2%	232
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	53.3%	497
dn 0.05-0.10	50.7%	215
dn 0.10-0.20	39.0%	285
dn >0.20	28.3%	283

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	37.5%	2,222
RTH low is final by 10:30	44.8%	2,222
Both high and low final by 10:30	3.8%	2,222
Low comes before high (full day)	53.2%	2,222
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	50.5%	2,222

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.9%	5,994
[0.25,0.5)	71.5%	8,172	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	70.9%	2,496
[0.75,1.0)	73.9%	744	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	75.2%	250	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	73.7%	76
[1.5,2.0)	59.4%	32
>=2.0	25.0%	12

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.