NQ roadmap

Held era only (2,228 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 29391.50 · ATR14: 356.32 · 09:30 open: 30170.75

Every probability below is measured on 2018-01-01 onward only (the most recent regime), never on the pooled full history: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 period and 2018 onward, so only the recent number ships. The era flag marks a cell that moved between the two periods -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	30188.57	17.82	90.2%	2,222	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	30152.93	17.82	89.0%	2,222	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	30206.38	35.63	81.8%	2,222	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	30135.12	35.63	81.0%	2,222	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	30224.20	53.45	73.3%	2,222	LIKELY	—
0.15	down	30117.30	53.45	71.3%	2,222	LIKELY	—
0.20	up	30242.01	71.26	66.0%	2,222	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	30099.49	71.26	63.1%	2,222	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	30259.83	89.08	58.7%	2,222	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	30081.67	89.08	55.5%	2,222	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	up	30277.65	106.90	52.6%	2,222	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	down	30063.85	106.90	50.3%	2,222	COIN FLIP	—
0.40	up	30313.28	142.53	40.0%	2,222	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	30028.22	142.53	40.7%	2,222	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	30348.91	178.16	30.2%	2,222	STRETCH	—
0.50	down	29992.59	178.16	31.0%	2,222	STRETCH	—
0.75	up	30437.99	267.24	12.9%	2,222	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	29903.51	267.24	17.2%	2,222	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	30527.07	356.32	5.4%	2,222	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	29814.43	356.32	10.1%	2,222	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	30705.23	534.48	0.8%	2,222	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	29636.27	534.48	2.8%	2,222	LONG SHOT	—

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	90.6%	2,225	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	—	—	90.1%	2,225	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	—	—	82.3%	2,225	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	—	—	81.4%	2,225	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	—	—	74.3%	2,225	LIKELY	—
0.15	down	—	—	73.4%	2,225	LIKELY	—
0.20	up	—	—	66.5%	2,225	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	—	—	65.5%	2,225	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	—	—	58.9%	2,225	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	—	—	58.0%	2,225	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	up	—	—	52.2%	2,225	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	down	—	—	51.8%	2,225	COIN FLIP	—
0.40	up	—	—	40.4%	2,225	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	—	—	42.1%	2,225	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	—	—	30.0%	2,225	STRETCH	—
0.50	down	—	—	32.9%	2,225	STRETCH	—
0.75	up	—	—	12.5%	2,225	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	—	—	17.9%	2,225	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	—	—	5.4%	2,225	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	—	—	10.2%	2,225	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	—	—	0.9%	2,225	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	—	—	2.8%	2,225	LONG SHOT	—

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,227	0.25	0.29	0.36	0.50	0.68	0.89	1.07	1.59
0930	2,227	0.27	0.30	0.39	0.52	0.71	0.94	1.12	1.62
1030	2,227	0.33	0.39	0.51	0.67	0.91	1.20	1.42	1.96

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	49.7%	963	moved since 2018
0.5-0.85	48.4%	859	—
0.85-1.05	51.7%	176	—
1.05-1.25	46.0%	74	—
>1.25	45.2%	73	—

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

SCENERY: no measurable difference - this level behaves like any other price at that distance.
PULLS: price reached this level clearly more often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.
REPELS: price reached this level clearly less often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	30188.57	17.82	91.5%	246	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	30206.38	35.63	77.6%	147	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	30224.20	53.45	75.2%	109	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	30242.01	71.26	73.7%	95	PULLS	—
0.25	up	30259.83	89.08	59.8%	92	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	30277.65	106.90	61.9%	97	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	30313.28	142.53	49.4%	87	PULLS	—
0.50	up	30348.91	178.16	45.6%	79	PULLS	—
0.75	up	30437.99	267.24	22.7%	44	PULLS	—
1.00	up	30527.07	356.32	15.8%	19	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	30705.23	534.48	0.0%	6	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	30152.93	17.82	90.2%	275	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	30135.12	35.63	80.1%	161	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	30117.30	53.45	64.5%	155	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	30099.49	71.26	64.7%	116	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	30081.67	89.08	58.7%	121	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	30063.85	106.90	51.6%	126	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	30028.22	142.53	50.4%	119	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	29992.59	178.16	36.4%	88	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	29903.51	267.24	24.1%	29	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	29814.43	356.32	0.0%	6	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	29636.27	534.48	0.0%	2	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	30188.57	17.82	92.7%	150	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	30206.38	35.63	70.4%	108	REPELS	—
0.15	up	30224.20	53.45	68.4%	117	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	30242.01	71.26	66.7%	96	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	30259.83	89.08	63.5%	96	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	up	30277.65	106.90	49.3%	138	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	30313.28	142.53	39.6%	159	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	30348.91	178.16	20.5%	224	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	30437.99	267.24	16.9%	219	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	30527.07	356.32	7.0%	187	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	30705.23	534.48	4.3%	93	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	30152.93	17.82	93.2%	132	PULLS	—
0.10	down	30135.12	35.63	78.2%	87	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	30117.30	53.45	67.1%	73	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	30099.49	71.26	69.8%	43	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	30081.67	89.08	53.1%	49	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	30063.85	106.90	59.6%	47	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	30028.22	142.53	40.0%	60	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	29992.59	178.16	38.3%	47	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	29903.51	267.24	46.4%	28	PULLS	—
1.00	down	29814.43	356.32	0.0%	7	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	29636.27	534.48	0.0%	7	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	30188.57	17.82	92.4%	79	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	30206.38	35.63	85.4%	41	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	30224.20	53.45	84.4%	32	PULLS	—
0.20	up	30242.01	71.26	81.3%	32	PULLS	—
0.25	up	30259.83	89.08	47.8%	23	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	30277.65	106.90	58.3%	24	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	30313.28	142.53	54.8%	31	PULLS	—
0.50	up	30348.91	178.16	40.5%	42	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	30437.99	267.24	22.2%	27	PULLS	—
1.00	up	30527.07	356.32	33.3%	18	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	30705.23	534.48	0.0%	4	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	30152.93	17.82	93.3%	89	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	30135.12	35.63	87.3%	71	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	30117.30	53.45	63.4%	82	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	30099.49	71.26	72.9%	85	PULLS	—
0.25	down	30081.67	89.08	56.5%	92	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	30063.85	106.90	37.5%	136	REPELS	—
0.40	down	30028.22	142.53	39.9%	163	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	29992.59	178.16	27.0%	344	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	29903.51	267.24	16.3%	363	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	29814.43	356.32	8.2%	281	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	29636.27	534.48	7.1%	127	SCENERY	—

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	30188.57	17.82	92.0%	138	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	30206.38	35.63	87.6%	81	PULLS	—
0.15	up	30224.20	53.45	72.7%	88	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	30242.01	71.26	61.8%	68	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	30259.83	89.08	63.9%	61	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	30277.65	106.90	59.8%	97	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	30313.28	142.53	50.0%	82	PULLS	—
0.50	up	30348.91	178.16	27.3%	99	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.75	up	30437.99	267.24	27.3%	110	PULLS	—
1.00	up	30527.07	356.32	15.1%	53	PULLS	—
1.50	up	30705.23	534.48	3.6%	28	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	30152.93	17.82	92.7%	137	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	30135.12	35.63	79.0%	100	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	30117.30	53.45	62.6%	115	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	30099.49	71.26	61.4%	101	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	30081.67	89.08	50.5%	105	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	30063.85	106.90	48.9%	143	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	30028.22	142.53	41.1%	163	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	29992.59	178.16	27.7%	195	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	29903.51	267.24	17.4%	144	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	29814.43	356.32	25.0%	80	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.50	down	29636.27	534.48	0.0%	15	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	30188.57	17.82	90.4%	177	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	up	30206.38	35.63	88.1%	101	PULLS	—
0.15	up	30224.20	53.45	75.0%	96	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	30242.01	71.26	65.9%	85	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	30259.83	89.08	59.7%	72	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	30277.65	106.90	54.3%	81	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	30313.28	142.53	40.8%	76	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	30348.91	178.16	41.6%	101	PULLS	—
0.75	up	30437.99	267.24	27.6%	76	PULLS	—
1.00	up	30527.07	356.32	17.1%	41	PULLS	—
1.50	up	30705.23	534.48	0.0%	9	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	30152.93	17.82	92.9%	212	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	30135.12	35.63	83.7%	135	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	30117.30	53.45	62.0%	113	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	30099.49	71.26	59.1%	105	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	30081.67	89.08	58.9%	112	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	30063.85	106.90	48.1%	133	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	30028.22	142.53	41.1%	124	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	29992.59	178.16	31.1%	151	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	29903.51	267.24	32.2%	90	PULLS	moved since 2018
1.00	down	29814.43	356.32	22.6%	31	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	29636.27	534.48	0.0%	11	Not enough data (n<30)	—

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	30188.57	17.82	89.4%	407	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	30206.38	35.63	81.1%	206	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	30224.20	53.45	76.2%	143	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	30242.01	71.26	66.7%	84	PULLS	moved since 2018
0.25	up	30259.83	89.08	67.7%	65	PULLS	—
0.30	up	30277.65	106.90	75.0%	52	PULLS	—
0.40	up	30313.28	142.53	59.4%	32	PULLS	—
0.50	up	30348.91	178.16	50.0%	16	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.75	up	30437.99	267.24	66.7%	6	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	30705.23	534.48	—	0	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	30152.93	17.82	91.1%	429	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	30135.12	35.63	77.0%	265	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	30117.30	53.45	71.7%	191	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	30099.49	71.26	71.4%	126	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	30081.67	89.08	60.0%	85	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	30063.85	106.90	59.0%	61	PULLS	—
0.40	down	30028.22	142.53	52.8%	36	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	29992.59	178.16	46.7%	15	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.75	down	29903.51	267.24	66.7%	3	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	down	29636.27	534.48	—	0	Not enough data (n<30)	—

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	54.0%	2,145	—
up >0.20	75.3%	275	—
up 0.10-0.20	68.4%	358	—
up 0.05-0.10	61.2%	232	—
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	53.3%	497	—
dn 0.05-0.10	50.7%	215	—
dn 0.10-0.20	39.0%	285	—
dn >0.20	28.3%	283	—

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	37.5%	2,222
RTH low is final by 10:30	44.8%	2,222
Both high and low final by 10:30	3.8%	2,222
Low comes before high (full day)	53.2%	2,222
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	50.5%	2,222

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	70.9%	5,994	—
[0.25,0.5)	71.5%	8,172	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	70.9%	2,496	—
[0.75,1.0)	73.9%	744	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	75.2%	250	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	73.7%	76	—
[1.5,2.0)	59.4%	32	—
>=2.0	25.0%	12	—

Low is in before the high

Share of days where the RTH low / high of the day has already been set, by clock checkpoint.

By 15:00 the low is already in 82% of days, the high 73%.

checkpoint	low in %	high in %	diff	n
09:45	26.9%	23.5%	+3.4	2,222
10:30	44.8%	37.5%	+7.3	2,222
12:00	61.7%	51.6%	+10.0	2,222
14:00	74.5%	65.0%	+9.5	2,222
15:00	82.0%	73.4%	+8.6	2,222

Don't fade a stretched day

At each checkpoint, chance the day's range still extends >=0.05 ATR further by the 16:00 close, by how far the range has already stretched.

range so far (ATR)	10:30	12:00	14:00
<0.80	61.4%	47.4%	30.4%
0.80-1.05	77.4% reading, not a rule (n=62)	59.5%	43.1%
1.05-1.25	75.0% reading, not a rule (n=16)	64.7% reading, not a rule (n=51)	40.4% reading, not a rule (n=99)
>=1.25	60.0% reading, not a rule (n=10)	57.1% reading, not a rule (n=49)	42.7% reading, not a rule (n=82)

Yesterday's close vs. prior day range

R1/R2 use the full session (18:00-17:00 ET) close and prior-day range, not RTH -- see the note on the JSON for how this differs from the named-levels section above.

R1: yesterday's close broke above the older high (bullish, target = yesterday's high) (n: 1,318)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
80.6% (base 56.6%)	78.9% (base 51.5%)	53.9% (base 55.0%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~84%.

R2: yesterday's close broke below the older low (bearish, target = yesterday's low) (n: 805)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
66.0% (base 44.1%)	64.0% (base 36.7%)	40.2% (base 44.8%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~80%.

Show 77%+ only

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.