foxalgoUSD/CHF (USDCHF)
last quote 0.8008 · as of 01:55 ET (Yahoo tick 2026-08-21T20:59:58.000Z)
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
USDCHF · CURRENT SESSION · 15m
View as table
| level | price | P(touch) | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| +0.25 ATR | 0.80 | 62.5% | not touched yet |
| -0.25 ATR | 0.80 | 62.1% | not touched yet |
| +0.50 ATR | 0.80 | 35.0% | not touched yet |
| -0.50 ATR | 0.80 | 35.1% | not touched yet |
| +0.75 ATR | 0.81 | 17.8% | not touched yet |
| -0.75 ATR | 0.80 | 18.2% | not touched yet |
| +1.00 ATR | 0.81 | 8.5% | not touched yet |
| -1.00 ATR | 0.79 | 8.8% | not touched yet |
| +1.50 ATR | 0.81 | 2.2% | not touched yet |
| -1.50 ATR | 0.79 | 2.2% | not touched yet |
What's happening now
Regime of the day
Realized range so far / ATR(14) = 0.615 → narrow (n = 13,287)
narrow < 1.143, typical < 1.643, else wide — based on a partial-session window (88 bars). See methodology.
Next hour
| distance (ATR) | P(touch up, next 60m) | P(touch down, next 60m) | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1 | 25.9% | 25.4% | 8,516 |
| 0.25 | 3.9% | 3.9% | 8,516 |
| 0.5 | 0.9% | 0.8% | 8,516 |
Measured from the 1290-minute mark (minutes since 09:30 ET), next 60 minutes.
Touch ladder
Levels at ±0.25 / 0.5 / 0.75 / 1 / 1.5 ATR from the last quote, with p(touch within next 915m).
USDCHF · P(touch within next 915m)
| distance (ATR) | up level | P(touch within next 915m) up | down level | P(touch within next 915m) down | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 0.8024 | 62.5% | 0.7992 | 62.1% | 8,522 |
| 0.5 | 0.8039 | 35.0% | 0.7977 | 35.1% | 8,522 |
| 0.75 | 0.8055 | 17.8% | 0.7961 | 18.2% | 8,522 |
| 1 | 0.8070 | 8.5% | 0.7946 | 8.8% | 8,522 |
| 1.5 | 0.8101 | 2.2% | 0.7915 | 2.2% | 8,522 |
Brackets
Not yet measured for FX brackets — the first-hit grid is futures-only.
Track record — wins & losses
Calibration for USD/CHF
FX majors
MAE: 0.49 pp · n = 776,797,176
Per-sector breakdown, not per-symbol — the source data does not carry a per-symbol (e.g. ES vs NQ, or AAPL vs MSFT) calibration split, only per-sector/scope. 20-point-percentage bins (coarser than the 10pp futures/fx/stocks breakdown above) to keep per-sector cells sampled. Stocks: historical period 2020-2026, these 12 names selected ex-post (survivorship) — calibration applies to these names, not a random stock.
Recent wins & losses (backtested reconstruction)
Backtested reconstruction from historical daily bars — NOT frozen predictions. The frozen live record starts at launch (see below). Shown chronologically, wins and losses both — no cherry-picking.
| date | level (open + 0.5 ATR) | P(touch) | result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 0.8112 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-10 | 0.8127 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-11 | 0.8140 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-12 | 0.8160 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-13 | 0.8170 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-16 | 0.8154 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-17 | 0.8135 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-18 | 0.8151 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-19 | 0.8006 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
| 2026-08-20 | 0.8029 | 35.0% | not touched ✗ |
Live frozen record
Not tracked yet — the frozen live prediction record currently runs for the 6 futures markets only. See scorecard for the full picture as it grows.