CL roadmap

Held era only (2 224 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Probabilités mesurées. Aucun signal de trade. ce que cela signifie →

Current price: 90,95 · ATR14: 1,8371 · 09:30 open: 86,75

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	86,84	0,0919	89,3%	2 223	NEAR BAND
0,05	down	86,66	0,0919	89,9%	2 223	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0,10	up	86,93	0,1837	79,5%	2 223	LIKELY
0,10	down	86,57	0,1837	80,3%	2 223	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0,15	up	87,03	0,2756	70,0%	2 223	LIKELY
0,15	down	86,47	0,2756	70,7%	2 223	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0,20	up	87,12	0,3674	62,1%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,20	down	86,38	0,3674	62,5%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,25	up	87,21	0,4593	53,2%	2 223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0,25	down	86,29	0,4593	54,1%	2 223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0,30	up	87,30	0,5511	45,3%	2 223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0,30	down	86,20	0,5511	47,6%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,40	up	87,48	0,7349	32,8%	2 223	STRETCH
0,40	down	86,02	0,7349	36,0%	2 223	STRETCH
0,50	up	87,67	0,9186	22,9%	2 223	LONG SHOT
0,50	down	85,83	0,9186	26,4%	2 223	STRETCH
0,75	up	88,13	1,3779	8,3%	2 223	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0,75	down	85,37	1,3779	12,1%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,00	up	88,59	1,8371	3,1%	2 223	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1,00	down	84,91	1,8371	5,3%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,50	up	89,51	2,7557	0,4%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,50	down	83,99	2,7557	1,5%	2 223	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	—	—	91,0%	2 223	NEAR BAND
0,05	down	—	—	91,6%	2 223	NEAR BAND
0,10	up	—	—	82,1%	2 223	LIKELY
0,10	down	—	—	82,6%	2 223	LIKELY
0,15	up	—	—	74,1%	2 223	LIKELY
0,15	down	—	—	73,1%	2 223	LIKELY
0,20	up	—	—	65,5%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,20	down	—	—	66,1%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,25	up	—	—	57,1%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,25	down	—	—	57,2%	2 223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0,30	up	—	—	49,9%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,30	down	—	—	50,5%	2 223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0,40	up	—	—	35,5%	2 223	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0,40	down	—	—	39,1%	2 223	STRETCH
0,50	up	—	—	25,1%	2 223	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0,50	down	—	—	29,5%	2 223	STRETCH
0,75	up	—	—	11,1%	2 223	LONG SHOT
0,75	down	—	—	14,8%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,00	up	—	—	3,8%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,00	down	—	—	7,2%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,50	up	—	—	0,6%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,50	down	—	—	1,8%	2 223	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2 223	0,32	0,37	0,45	0,58	0,76	0,99	1,16	2,12
0930	2 223	0,35	0,41	0,50	0,64	0,84	1,09	1,29	2,14
1030	2 223	0,39	0,46	0,57	0,72	0,94	1,22	1,43	2,27

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	58,4%	512
0.5-0.85	56,6%	1 110
0.85-1.05	52,9%	276
1.05-1.25	50,8%	132	moved since 2018
>1.25	57,0%	121

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	86,84	0,0919	91,9%	186	SCENERY
0,10	up	86,93	0,1837	80,4%	112	SCENERY
0,15	up	87,03	0,2756	68,5%	111	SCENERY
0,20	up	87,12	0,3674	66,7%	93	SCENERY
0,25	up	87,21	0,4593	61,3%	80	SCENERY
0,30	up	87,30	0,5511	46,7%	120	SCENERY
0,40	up	87,48	0,7349	25,7%	101	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,50	up	87,67	0,9186	31,2%	125	SCENERY
0,75	up	88,13	1,3779	17,4%	92	SCENERY
1,00	up	88,59	1,8371	4,9%	41	SCENERY
1,50	up	89,51	2,7557	0,0%	8	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05	down	86,66	0,0919	94,0%	184	SCENERY
0,10	down	86,57	0,1837	84,6%	123	SCENERY
0,15	down	86,47	0,2756	70,9%	110	SCENERY
0,20	down	86,38	0,3674	60,0%	110	SCENERY
0,25	down	86,29	0,4593	44,4%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,30	down	86,20	0,5511	43,0%	121	REPELS
0,40	down	86,02	0,7349	34,7%	127	SCENERY
0,50	down	85,83	0,9186	24,4%	156	SCENERY
0,75	down	85,37	1,3779	13,7%	95	SCENERY
1,00	down	84,91	1,8371	12,5%	16	SCENERY
1,50	down	83,99	2,7557	25,0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	86,84	0,0919	96,4%	111	PULLS
0,10	up	86,93	0,1837	84,6%	91	PULLS
0,15	up	87,03	0,2756	69,6%	92	SCENERY
0,20	up	87,12	0,3674	63,1%	111	SCENERY
0,25	up	87,21	0,4593	56,1%	82	SCENERY
0,30	up	87,30	0,5511	37,8%	119	REPELS
0,40	up	87,48	0,7349	31,0%	174	SCENERY
0,50	up	87,67	0,9186	22,1%	253	SCENERY
0,75	up	88,13	1,3779	12,8%	251	SCENERY
1,00	up	88,59	1,8371	2,7%	185	SCENERY
1,50	up	89,51	2,7557	1,0%	103	SCENERY
0,05	down	86,66	0,0919	86,2%	123	SCENERY
0,10	down	86,57	0,1837	83,1%	71	SCENERY
0,15	down	86,47	0,2756	59,5%	79	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,20	down	86,38	0,3674	63,0%	54	SCENERY
0,25	down	86,29	0,4593	47,2%	53	SCENERY
0,30	down	86,20	0,5511	37,5%	64	SCENERY
0,40	down	86,02	0,7349	34,7%	49	SCENERY
0,50	down	85,83	0,9186	27,7%	65	SCENERY
0,75	down	85,37	1,3779	6,5%	31	REPELS
1,00	down	84,91	1,8371	0,0%	14	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50	down	83,99	2,7557	14,3%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	86,84	0,0919	90,8%	98	SCENERY
0,10	up	86,93	0,1837	85,5%	55	SCENERY
0,15	up	87,03	0,2756	73,9%	46	SCENERY
0,20	up	87,12	0,3674	65,0%	40	SCENERY
0,25	up	87,21	0,4593	61,3%	31	SCENERY
0,30	up	87,30	0,5511	45,2%	42	SCENERY
0,40	up	87,48	0,7349	43,4%	53	SCENERY
0,50	up	87,67	0,9186	28,6%	56	SCENERY
0,75	up	88,13	1,3779	15,0%	40	SCENERY
1,00	up	88,59	1,8371	4,4%	23	SCENERY
1,50	up	89,51	2,7557	0,0%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05	down	86,66	0,0919	91,2%	68	SCENERY
0,10	down	86,57	0,1837	86,3%	80	SCENERY
0,15	down	86,47	0,2756	77,0%	74	SCENERY
0,20	down	86,38	0,3674	48,3%	87	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,25	down	86,29	0,4593	50,5%	107	SCENERY
0,30	down	86,20	0,5511	49,4%	158	SCENERY
0,40	down	86,02	0,7349	26,2%	187	REPELS
0,50	down	85,83	0,9186	23,2%	293	SCENERY
0,75	down	85,37	1,3779	14,2%	324	SCENERY
1,00	down	84,91	1,8371	3,9%	231	SCENERY
1,50	down	83,99	2,7557	3,5%	86	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0,05	up	86,84	0,0919	94,5%	145	PULLS
0,10	up	86,93	0,1837	84,2%	82	SCENERY
0,15	up	87,03	0,2756	69,1%	97	SCENERY
0,20	up	87,12	0,3674	58,4%	77	SCENERY
0,25	up	87,21	0,4593	62,0%	79	SCENERY
0,30	up	87,30	0,5511	45,5%	77	SCENERY
0,40	up	87,48	0,7349	32,4%	102	SCENERY
0,50	up	87,67	0,9186	25,2%	139	SCENERY
0,75	up	88,13	1,3779	13,6%	118	SCENERY
1,00	up	88,59	1,8371	6,5%	77	SCENERY
1,50	up	89,51	2,7557	0,0%	22	SCENERY
0,05	down	86,66	0,0919	92,5%	159	SCENERY
0,10	down	86,57	0,1837	81,0%	84	SCENERY
0,15	down	86,47	0,2756	62,4%	85	SCENERY
0,20	down	86,38	0,3674	55,9%	93	SCENERY
0,25	down	86,29	0,4593	45,9%	98	SCENERY
0,30	down	86,20	0,5511	50,9%	110	SCENERY
0,40	down	86,02	0,7349	37,0%	146	SCENERY
0,50	down	85,83	0,9186	22,7%	185	SCENERY
0,75	down	85,37	1,3779	11,0%	145	SCENERY
1,00	down	84,91	1,8371	6,0%	67	SCENERY
1,50	down	83,99	2,7557	0,0%	16	SCENERY

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	86,84	0,0919	94,8%	172	SCENERY
0,10	up	86,93	0,1837	75,6%	86	SCENERY
0,15	up	87,03	0,2756	77,3%	110	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,20	up	87,12	0,3674	70,0%	90	SCENERY
0,25	up	87,21	0,4593	54,7%	86	SCENERY
0,30	up	87,30	0,5511	40,2%	97	SCENERY
0,40	up	87,48	0,7349	35,6%	101	SCENERY
0,50	up	87,67	0,9186	25,8%	120	SCENERY
0,75	up	88,13	1,3779	17,0%	94	PULLS
1,00	up	88,59	1,8371	5,2%	58	SCENERY
1,50	up	89,51	2,7557	0,0%	15	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05	down	86,66	0,0919	93,4%	151	SCENERY
0,10	down	86,57	0,1837	77,3%	110	SCENERY
0,15	down	86,47	0,2756	75,0%	96	SCENERY
0,20	down	86,38	0,3674	57,8%	102	SCENERY
0,25	down	86,29	0,4593	50,5%	93	SCENERY
0,30	down	86,20	0,5511	46,5%	114	SCENERY
0,40	down	86,02	0,7349	29,8%	131	SCENERY
0,50	down	85,83	0,9186	26,2%	141	SCENERY
0,75	down	85,37	1,3779	8,2%	110	SCENERY
1,00	down	84,91	1,8371	4,6%	44	SCENERY
1,50	down	83,99	2,7557	7,1%	14	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	86,84	0,0919	91,2%	308	SCENERY
0,10	up	86,93	0,1837	81,8%	170	SCENERY
0,15	up	87,03	0,2756	70,6%	146	SCENERY
0,20	up	87,12	0,3674	70,0%	120	PULLS
0,25	up	87,21	0,4593	55,4%	92	SCENERY
0,30	up	87,30	0,5511	46,2%	78	SCENERY
0,40	up	87,48	0,7349	44,4%	81	SCENERY
0,50	up	87,67	0,9186	24,3%	37	SCENERY
0,75	up	88,13	1,3779	40,0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,00	up	88,59	1,8371	0,0%	2	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05	down	86,66	0,0919	92,8%	293	SCENERY
0,10	down	86,57	0,1837	80,3%	183	SCENERY
0,15	down	86,47	0,2756	71,6%	183	SCENERY
0,20	down	86,38	0,3674	55,2%	163	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,25	down	86,29	0,4593	57,4%	108	SCENERY
0,30	down	86,20	0,5511	47,5%	141	SCENERY
0,40	down	86,02	0,7349	37,3%	67	SCENERY
0,50	down	85,83	0,9186	37,5%	32	SCENERY
0,75	down	85,37	1,3779	75,0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,00	down	84,91	1,8371	100,0%	3	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50	down	83,99	2,7557	0,0%	1	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n
ALL (pooled)	51,3%	2 151
up >0.20	78,6%	98
up 0.10-0.20	67,3%	275
up 0.05-0.10	56,0%	316
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	52,5%	751
dn 0.05-0.10	40,4%	280
dn 0.10-0.20	37,9%	330
dn >0.20	31,7%	101

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	36,4%	2 223
RTH low is final by 10:30	38,3%	2 223
Both high and low final by 10:30	3,1%	2 223
Low comes before high (full day)	51,0%	2 223
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	51,6%	2 223

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	73,7%	9 108	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	67,7%	6 631	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	65,4%	1 494
[0.75,1.0)	71,0%	376
[1.0,1.25)	73,9%	115	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	55,6%	36
[1.5,2.0)	54,2%	24
>=2.0	—	0

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.