CL roadmap

Held era only (2,224 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 90.95 · ATR14: 1.8371 · 09:30 open: 86.75

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	86.84	0.0919	89.3%	2,223	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	86.66	0.0919	89.9%	2,223	NEAR BAND	moved since 2018
0.10	up	86.93	0.1837	79.5%	2,223	LIKELY
0.10	down	86.57	0.1837	80.3%	2,223	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.15	up	87.03	0.2756	70.0%	2,223	LIKELY
0.15	down	86.47	0.2756	70.7%	2,223	LIKELY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	87.12	0.3674	62.1%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.20	down	86.38	0.3674	62.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.25	up	87.21	0.4593	53.2%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.25	down	86.29	0.4593	54.1%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	87.30	0.5511	45.3%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	down	86.20	0.5511	47.6%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.40	up	87.48	0.7349	32.8%	2,223	STRETCH
0.40	down	86.02	0.7349	36.0%	2,223	STRETCH
0.50	up	87.67	0.9186	22.9%	2,223	LONG SHOT
0.50	down	85.83	0.9186	26.4%	2,223	STRETCH
0.75	up	88.13	1.3779	8.3%	2,223	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
0.75	down	85.37	1.3779	12.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	88.59	1.8371	3.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT	moved since 2018
1.00	down	84.91	1.8371	5.3%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	89.51	2.7557	0.4%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	83.99	2.7557	1.5%	2,223	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	91.0%	2,223	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	—	—	91.6%	2,223	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	—	—	82.1%	2,223	LIKELY
0.10	down	—	—	82.6%	2,223	LIKELY
0.15	up	—	—	74.1%	2,223	LIKELY
0.15	down	—	—	73.1%	2,223	LIKELY
0.20	up	—	—	65.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.20	down	—	—	66.1%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.25	up	—	—	57.1%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.25	down	—	—	57.2%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.30	up	—	—	49.9%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.30	down	—	—	50.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP	moved since 2018
0.40	up	—	—	35.5%	2,223	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.40	down	—	—	39.1%	2,223	STRETCH
0.50	up	—	—	25.1%	2,223	STRETCH	moved since 2018
0.50	down	—	—	29.5%	2,223	STRETCH
0.75	up	—	—	11.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT
0.75	down	—	—	14.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	—	—	3.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.00	down	—	—	7.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	—	—	0.6%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	—	—	1.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,223	0.32	0.37	0.45	0.58	0.76	0.99	1.16	2.12
0930	2,223	0.35	0.41	0.50	0.64	0.84	1.09	1.29	2.14
1030	2,223	0.39	0.46	0.57	0.72	0.94	1.22	1.43	2.27

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	58.4%	512
0.5-0.85	56.6%	1,110
0.85-1.05	52.9%	276
1.05-1.25	50.8%	132	moved since 2018
>1.25	57.0%	121

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	86.84	0.0919	91.9%	186	SCENERY
0.10	up	86.93	0.1837	80.4%	112	SCENERY
0.15	up	87.03	0.2756	68.5%	111	SCENERY
0.20	up	87.12	0.3674	66.7%	93	SCENERY
0.25	up	87.21	0.4593	61.3%	80	SCENERY
0.30	up	87.30	0.5511	46.7%	120	SCENERY
0.40	up	87.48	0.7349	25.7%	101	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	up	87.67	0.9186	31.2%	125	SCENERY
0.75	up	88.13	1.3779	17.4%	92	SCENERY
1.00	up	88.59	1.8371	4.9%	41	SCENERY
1.50	up	89.51	2.7557	0.0%	8	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	86.66	0.0919	94.0%	184	SCENERY
0.10	down	86.57	0.1837	84.6%	123	SCENERY
0.15	down	86.47	0.2756	70.9%	110	SCENERY
0.20	down	86.38	0.3674	60.0%	110	SCENERY
0.25	down	86.29	0.4593	44.4%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.30	down	86.20	0.5511	43.0%	121	REPELS
0.40	down	86.02	0.7349	34.7%	127	SCENERY
0.50	down	85.83	0.9186	24.4%	156	SCENERY
0.75	down	85.37	1.3779	13.7%	95	SCENERY
1.00	down	84.91	1.8371	12.5%	16	SCENERY
1.50	down	83.99	2.7557	25.0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	86.84	0.0919	96.4%	111	PULLS
0.10	up	86.93	0.1837	84.6%	91	PULLS
0.15	up	87.03	0.2756	69.6%	92	SCENERY
0.20	up	87.12	0.3674	63.1%	111	SCENERY
0.25	up	87.21	0.4593	56.1%	82	SCENERY
0.30	up	87.30	0.5511	37.8%	119	REPELS
0.40	up	87.48	0.7349	31.0%	174	SCENERY
0.50	up	87.67	0.9186	22.1%	253	SCENERY
0.75	up	88.13	1.3779	12.8%	251	SCENERY
1.00	up	88.59	1.8371	2.7%	185	SCENERY
1.50	up	89.51	2.7557	1.0%	103	SCENERY
0.05	down	86.66	0.0919	86.2%	123	SCENERY
0.10	down	86.57	0.1837	83.1%	71	SCENERY
0.15	down	86.47	0.2756	59.5%	79	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	86.38	0.3674	63.0%	54	SCENERY
0.25	down	86.29	0.4593	47.2%	53	SCENERY
0.30	down	86.20	0.5511	37.5%	64	SCENERY
0.40	down	86.02	0.7349	34.7%	49	SCENERY
0.50	down	85.83	0.9186	27.7%	65	SCENERY
0.75	down	85.37	1.3779	6.5%	31	REPELS
1.00	down	84.91	1.8371	0.0%	14	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	down	83.99	2.7557	14.3%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	86.84	0.0919	90.8%	98	SCENERY
0.10	up	86.93	0.1837	85.5%	55	SCENERY
0.15	up	87.03	0.2756	73.9%	46	SCENERY
0.20	up	87.12	0.3674	65.0%	40	SCENERY
0.25	up	87.21	0.4593	61.3%	31	SCENERY
0.30	up	87.30	0.5511	45.2%	42	SCENERY
0.40	up	87.48	0.7349	43.4%	53	SCENERY
0.50	up	87.67	0.9186	28.6%	56	SCENERY
0.75	up	88.13	1.3779	15.0%	40	SCENERY
1.00	up	88.59	1.8371	4.4%	23	SCENERY
1.50	up	89.51	2.7557	0.0%	7	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	86.66	0.0919	91.2%	68	SCENERY
0.10	down	86.57	0.1837	86.3%	80	SCENERY
0.15	down	86.47	0.2756	77.0%	74	SCENERY
0.20	down	86.38	0.3674	48.3%	87	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	86.29	0.4593	50.5%	107	SCENERY
0.30	down	86.20	0.5511	49.4%	158	SCENERY
0.40	down	86.02	0.7349	26.2%	187	REPELS
0.50	down	85.83	0.9186	23.2%	293	SCENERY
0.75	down	85.37	1.3779	14.2%	324	SCENERY
1.00	down	84.91	1.8371	3.9%	231	SCENERY
1.50	down	83.99	2.7557	3.5%	86	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	86.84	0.0919	94.5%	145	PULLS
0.10	up	86.93	0.1837	84.2%	82	SCENERY
0.15	up	87.03	0.2756	69.1%	97	SCENERY
0.20	up	87.12	0.3674	58.4%	77	SCENERY
0.25	up	87.21	0.4593	62.0%	79	SCENERY
0.30	up	87.30	0.5511	45.5%	77	SCENERY
0.40	up	87.48	0.7349	32.4%	102	SCENERY
0.50	up	87.67	0.9186	25.2%	139	SCENERY
0.75	up	88.13	1.3779	13.6%	118	SCENERY
1.00	up	88.59	1.8371	6.5%	77	SCENERY
1.50	up	89.51	2.7557	0.0%	22	SCENERY
0.05	down	86.66	0.0919	92.5%	159	SCENERY
0.10	down	86.57	0.1837	81.0%	84	SCENERY
0.15	down	86.47	0.2756	62.4%	85	SCENERY
0.20	down	86.38	0.3674	55.9%	93	SCENERY
0.25	down	86.29	0.4593	45.9%	98	SCENERY
0.30	down	86.20	0.5511	50.9%	110	SCENERY
0.40	down	86.02	0.7349	37.0%	146	SCENERY
0.50	down	85.83	0.9186	22.7%	185	SCENERY
0.75	down	85.37	1.3779	11.0%	145	SCENERY
1.00	down	84.91	1.8371	6.0%	67	SCENERY
1.50	down	83.99	2.7557	0.0%	16	SCENERY

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	86.84	0.0919	94.8%	172	SCENERY
0.10	up	86.93	0.1837	75.6%	86	SCENERY
0.15	up	87.03	0.2756	77.3%	110	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	87.12	0.3674	70.0%	90	SCENERY
0.25	up	87.21	0.4593	54.7%	86	SCENERY
0.30	up	87.30	0.5511	40.2%	97	SCENERY
0.40	up	87.48	0.7349	35.6%	101	SCENERY
0.50	up	87.67	0.9186	25.8%	120	SCENERY
0.75	up	88.13	1.3779	17.0%	94	PULLS
1.00	up	88.59	1.8371	5.2%	58	SCENERY
1.50	up	89.51	2.7557	0.0%	15	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	86.66	0.0919	93.4%	151	SCENERY
0.10	down	86.57	0.1837	77.3%	110	SCENERY
0.15	down	86.47	0.2756	75.0%	96	SCENERY
0.20	down	86.38	0.3674	57.8%	102	SCENERY
0.25	down	86.29	0.4593	50.5%	93	SCENERY
0.30	down	86.20	0.5511	46.5%	114	SCENERY
0.40	down	86.02	0.7349	29.8%	131	SCENERY
0.50	down	85.83	0.9186	26.2%	141	SCENERY
0.75	down	85.37	1.3779	8.2%	110	SCENERY
1.00	down	84.91	1.8371	4.6%	44	SCENERY
1.50	down	83.99	2.7557	7.1%	14	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	86.84	0.0919	91.2%	308	SCENERY
0.10	up	86.93	0.1837	81.8%	170	SCENERY
0.15	up	87.03	0.2756	70.6%	146	SCENERY
0.20	up	87.12	0.3674	70.0%	120	PULLS
0.25	up	87.21	0.4593	55.4%	92	SCENERY
0.30	up	87.30	0.5511	46.2%	78	SCENERY
0.40	up	87.48	0.7349	44.4%	81	SCENERY
0.50	up	87.67	0.9186	24.3%	37	SCENERY
0.75	up	88.13	1.3779	40.0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.00	up	88.59	1.8371	0.0%	2	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	86.66	0.0919	92.8%	293	SCENERY
0.10	down	86.57	0.1837	80.3%	183	SCENERY
0.15	down	86.47	0.2756	71.6%	183	SCENERY
0.20	down	86.38	0.3674	55.2%	163	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	86.29	0.4593	57.4%	108	SCENERY
0.30	down	86.20	0.5511	47.5%	141	SCENERY
0.40	down	86.02	0.7349	37.3%	67	SCENERY
0.50	down	85.83	0.9186	37.5%	32	SCENERY
0.75	down	85.37	1.3779	75.0%	4	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.00	down	84.91	1.8371	100.0%	3	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	down	83.99	2.7557	0.0%	1	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n
ALL (pooled)	51.3%	2,151
up >0.20	78.6%	98
up 0.10-0.20	67.3%	275
up 0.05-0.10	56.0%	316
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	52.5%	751
dn 0.05-0.10	40.4%	280
dn 0.10-0.20	37.9%	330
dn >0.20	31.7%	101

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	36.4%	2,223
RTH low is final by 10:30	38.3%	2,223
Both high and low final by 10:30	3.1%	2,223
Low comes before high (full day)	51.0%	2,223
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	51.6%	2,223

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	73.7%	9,108	moved since 2018
[0.25,0.5)	67.7%	6,631	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	65.4%	1,494
[0.75,1.0)	71.0%	376
[1.0,1.25)	73.9%	115	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	55.6%	36
[1.5,2.0)	54.2%	24
>=2.0	—	0

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.