GC roadmap

Held era only (2 224 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Probabilités mesurées. Aucun signal de trade. ce que cela signifie →

Current price: 4372,80 · ATR14: 63,96 · 09:30 open: 4485,70

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0,05	up	4488,90	3,1979	88,1%	2 223	NEAR BAND
0,05	down	4482,50	3,1979	88,8%	2 223	NEAR BAND
0,10	up	4492,10	6,3957	75,3%	2 223	LIKELY
0,10	down	4479,30	6,3957	78,0%	2 223	LIKELY
0,15	up	4495,29	9,5936	65,0%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,15	down	4476,11	9,5936	66,9%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,20	up	4498,49	12,79	56,0%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,20	down	4472,91	12,79	57,3%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,25	up	4501,69	15,99	47,7%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,25	down	4469,71	15,99	48,6%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,30	up	4504,89	19,19	38,9%	2 223	STRETCH
0,30	down	4466,51	19,19	41,4%	2 223	STRETCH
0,40	up	4511,28	25,58	27,3%	2 223	STRETCH
0,40	down	4460,12	25,58	29,4%	2 223	STRETCH
0,50	up	4517,68	31,98	18,8%	2 223	LONG SHOT
0,50	down	4453,72	31,98	20,1%	2 223	LONG SHOT
0,75	up	4533,67	47,97	6,8%	2 223	LONG SHOT
0,75	down	4437,73	47,97	8,2%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,00	up	4549,66	63,96	2,8%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,00	down	4421,74	63,96	3,9%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,50	up	4581,64	95,94	0,4%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,50	down	4389,76	95,94	0,7%	2 223	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0,05	up	—	—	89,7%	2 223	NEAR BAND
0,05	down	—	—	90,2%	2 223	NEAR BAND
0,10	up	—	—	78,6%	2 223	LIKELY
0,10	down	—	—	78,8%	2 223	LIKELY
0,15	up	—	—	67,5%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,15	down	—	—	69,9%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,20	up	—	—	59,0%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,20	down	—	—	61,0%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,25	up	—	—	51,4%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,25	down	—	—	53,3%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,30	up	—	—	43,7%	2 223	STRETCH
0,30	down	—	—	45,8%	2 223	COIN FLIP
0,40	up	—	—	30,9%	2 223	STRETCH
0,40	down	—	—	33,2%	2 223	STRETCH
0,50	up	—	—	22,3%	2 223	LONG SHOT
0,50	down	—	—	23,2%	2 223	LONG SHOT
0,75	up	—	—	9,2%	2 223	LONG SHOT
0,75	down	—	—	10,4%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,00	up	—	—	3,8%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,00	down	—	—	4,6%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,50	up	—	—	0,8%	2 223	LONG SHOT
1,50	down	—	—	1,0%	2 223	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2 223	0,38	0,41	0,51	0,66	0,87	1,12	1,33	2,06
0930	2 223	0,39	0,44	0,54	0,70	0,93	1,20	1,46	2,18
1030	2 223	0,43	0,49	0,61	0,80	1,03	1,35	1,68	2,46

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n
<0.5	62,4%	378
0.5-0.85	59,7%	1 060
0.85-1.05	58,9%	338
1.05-1.25	62,6%	182
>1.25	63,2%	190

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	4488,90	3,1979	87,7%	203	SCENERY
0,10	up	4492,10	6,3957	76,5%	115	SCENERY
0,15	up	4495,29	9,5936	63,5%	85	SCENERY
0,20	up	4498,49	12,79	55,0%	100	SCENERY
0,25	up	4501,69	15,99	41,0%	83	SCENERY
0,30	up	4504,89	19,19	35,7%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,40	up	4511,28	25,58	26,3%	99	SCENERY
0,50	up	4517,68	31,98	18,5%	92	SCENERY
0,75	up	4533,67	47,97	10,1%	79	SCENERY
1,00	up	4549,66	63,96	0,0%	44	SCENERY
1,50	up	4581,64	95,94	0,0%	18	SCENERY
0,05	down	4482,50	3,1979	88,6%	202	SCENERY
0,10	down	4479,30	6,3957	72,9%	140	SCENERY
0,15	down	4476,11	9,5936	69,6%	125	SCENERY
0,20	down	4472,91	12,79	50,5%	99	SCENERY
0,25	down	4469,71	15,99	41,4%	99	SCENERY
0,30	down	4466,51	19,19	43,8%	121	SCENERY
0,40	down	4460,12	25,58	29,6%	115	SCENERY
0,50	down	4453,72	31,98	15,9%	126	SCENERY
0,75	down	4437,73	47,97	13,9%	108	SCENERY
1,00	down	4421,74	63,96	9,1%	33	SCENERY
1,50	down	4389,76	95,94	11,1%	9	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	4488,90	3,1979	90,9%	153	SCENERY
0,10	up	4492,10	6,3957	71,1%	83	SCENERY
0,15	up	4495,29	9,5936	65,8%	79	SCENERY
0,20	up	4498,49	12,79	48,1%	104	SCENERY
0,25	up	4501,69	15,99	46,2%	104	SCENERY
0,30	up	4504,89	19,19	35,2%	162	SCENERY
0,40	up	4511,28	25,58	24,9%	181	SCENERY
0,50	up	4517,68	31,98	18,3%	235	SCENERY
0,75	up	4533,67	47,97	4,0%	201	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1,00	up	4549,66	63,96	3,5%	142	SCENERY
1,50	up	4581,64	95,94	0,0%	78	SCENERY
0,05	down	4482,50	3,1979	95,2%	103	SCENERY
0,10	down	4479,30	6,3957	70,3%	64	SCENERY
0,15	down	4476,11	9,5936	73,8%	61	PULLS
0,20	down	4472,91	12,79	55,6%	45	SCENERY
0,25	down	4469,71	15,99	49,1%	57	SCENERY
0,30	down	4466,51	19,19	41,2%	68	SCENERY
0,40	down	4460,12	25,58	40,0%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,50	down	4453,72	31,98	21,2%	85	SCENERY
0,75	down	4437,73	47,97	11,8%	68	SCENERY
1,00	down	4421,74	63,96	11,1%	36	SCENERY
1,50	down	4389,76	95,94	7,7%	13	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0,05	up	4488,90	3,1979	92,7%	96	PULLS
0,10	up	4492,10	6,3957	66,0%	47	SCENERY
0,15	up	4495,29	9,5936	52,8%	36	SCENERY
0,20	up	4498,49	12,79	51,5%	33	SCENERY
0,25	up	4501,69	15,99	46,7%	30	SCENERY
0,30	up	4504,89	19,19	27,5%	40	SCENERY
0,40	up	4511,28	25,58	37,5%	32	SCENERY
0,50	up	4517,68	31,98	20,0%	65	SCENERY
0,75	up	4533,67	47,97	11,1%	54	SCENERY
1,00	up	4549,66	63,96	3,0%	33	SCENERY
1,50	up	4581,64	95,94	0,0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05	down	4482,50	3,1979	94,3%	105	SCENERY
0,10	down	4479,30	6,3957	76,0%	75	SCENERY
0,15	down	4476,11	9,5936	65,7%	108	SCENERY
0,20	down	4472,91	12,79	55,8%	104	SCENERY
0,25	down	4469,71	15,99	45,6%	103	SCENERY
0,30	down	4466,51	19,19	37,9%	153	SCENERY
0,40	down	4460,12	25,58	19,3%	192	REPELS
0,50	down	4453,72	31,98	12,9%	264	REPELS
0,75	down	4437,73	47,97	8,3%	276	SCENERY
1,00	down	4421,74	63,96	2,3%	217	SCENERY
1,50	down	4389,76	95,94	1,8%	110	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	4488,90	3,1979	92,2%	166	SCENERY
0,10	up	4492,10	6,3957	69,6%	115	SCENERY
0,15	up	4495,29	9,5936	64,2%	95	SCENERY
0,20	up	4498,49	12,79	51,3%	76	SCENERY
0,25	up	4501,69	15,99	60,9%	69	PULLS
0,30	up	4504,89	19,19	23,0%	100	REPELS
0,40	up	4511,28	25,58	32,4%	68	SCENERY
0,50	up	4517,68	31,98	14,8%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,75	up	4533,67	47,97	7,9%	89	SCENERY
1,00	up	4549,66	63,96	1,3%	77	SCENERY
1,50	up	4581,64	95,94	0,0%	33	SCENERY
0,05	down	4482,50	3,1979	88,2%	153	SCENERY
0,10	down	4479,30	6,3957	73,3%	101	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,15	down	4476,11	9,5936	62,2%	90	SCENERY
0,20	down	4472,91	12,79	52,0%	75	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,25	down	4469,71	15,99	41,4%	99	SCENERY
0,30	down	4466,51	19,19	41,2%	97	SCENERY
0,40	down	4460,12	25,58	34,8%	115	SCENERY
0,50	down	4453,72	31,98	16,3%	196	SCENERY
0,75	down	4437,73	47,97	12,1%	132	SCENERY
1,00	down	4421,74	63,96	7,9%	101	SCENERY
1,50	down	4389,76	95,94	0,0%	32	SCENERY

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	4488,90	3,1979	92,4%	157	SCENERY
0,10	up	4492,10	6,3957	80,2%	101	SCENERY
0,15	up	4495,29	9,5936	56,3%	103	SCENERY
0,20	up	4498,49	12,79	63,6%	66	SCENERY
0,25	up	4501,69	15,99	33,3%	78	SCENERY
0,30	up	4504,89	19,19	35,0%	80	SCENERY
0,40	up	4511,28	25,58	24,2%	95	SCENERY
0,50	up	4517,68	31,98	16,1%	93	SCENERY
0,75	up	4533,67	47,97	8,8%	91	SCENERY
1,00	up	4549,66	63,96	1,7%	58	SCENERY
1,50	up	4581,64	95,94	0,0%	25	SCENERY
0,05	down	4482,50	3,1979	88,3%	171	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,10	down	4479,30	6,3957	75,6%	115	SCENERY
0,15	down	4476,11	9,5936	55,6%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,20	down	4472,91	12,79	57,0%	93	SCENERY
0,25	down	4469,71	15,99	38,0%	92	REPELS
0,30	down	4466,51	19,19	35,3%	119	SCENERY
0,40	down	4460,12	25,58	31,8%	129	SCENERY
0,50	down	4453,72	31,98	24,2%	153	SCENERY
0,75	down	4437,73	47,97	9,6%	115	SCENERY
1,00	down	4421,74	63,96	6,3%	79	PULLS
1,50	down	4389,76	95,94	5,6%	18	SCENERY

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0,05	up	4488,90	3,1979	90,2%	305	SCENERY
0,10	up	4492,10	6,3957	71,3%	160	SCENERY
0,15	up	4495,29	9,5936	60,6%	137	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0,20	up	4498,49	12,79	58,8%	114	SCENERY
0,25	up	4501,69	15,99	52,6%	95	SCENERY
0,30	up	4504,89	19,19	41,2%	68	SCENERY
0,40	up	4511,28	25,58	36,1%	61	SCENERY
0,50	up	4517,68	31,98	21,4%	42	SCENERY
0,75	up	4533,67	47,97	4,6%	22	SCENERY
1,00	up	4549,66	63,96	33,3%	3	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50	up	4581,64	95,94	0,0%	2	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05	down	4482,50	3,1979	89,2%	305	SCENERY
0,10	down	4479,30	6,3957	72,3%	213	SCENERY
0,15	down	4476,11	9,5936	64,8%	159	SCENERY
0,20	down	4472,91	12,79	58,5%	147	SCENERY
0,25	down	4469,71	15,99	50,9%	116	SCENERY
0,30	down	4466,51	19,19	47,8%	115	SCENERY
0,40	down	4460,12	25,58	25,5%	98	SCENERY
0,50	down	4453,72	31,98	27,1%	48	SCENERY
0,75	down	4437,73	47,97	0,0%	13	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,00	down	4421,74	63,96	—	0	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	49,6%	2 148
up >0.20	76,2%	105
up 0.10-0.20	63,4%	284
up 0.05-0.10	56,6%	320
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	49,9%	730	moved since 2018
dn 0.05-0.10	42,9%	301
dn 0.10-0.20	36,4%	280
dn >0.20	22,7%	128

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	44,8%	2 223
RTH low is final by 10:30	48,2%	2 223
Both high and low final by 10:30	8,6%	2 223
Low comes before high (full day)	50,5%	2 223
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	50,1%	2 223

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	66,2%	8 982
[0.25,0.5)	58,3%	6 585	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	56,9%	1 565
[0.75,1.0)	68,0%	415	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	66,9%	136	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	54,6%	66
[1.5,2.0)	66,7%	30
>=2.0	0,0%	5

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.