GC roadmap

Held era only (2,224 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 4372.80 · ATR14: 63.96 · 09:30 open: 4485.70

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	4488.90	3.1979	88.1%	2,223	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	4482.50	3.1979	88.8%	2,223	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	4492.10	6.3957	75.3%	2,223	LIKELY
0.10	down	4479.30	6.3957	78.0%	2,223	LIKELY
0.15	up	4495.29	9.5936	65.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.15	down	4476.11	9.5936	66.9%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.20	up	4498.49	12.79	56.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.20	down	4472.91	12.79	57.3%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.25	up	4501.69	15.99	47.7%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.25	down	4469.71	15.99	48.6%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.30	up	4504.89	19.19	38.9%	2,223	STRETCH
0.30	down	4466.51	19.19	41.4%	2,223	STRETCH
0.40	up	4511.28	25.58	27.3%	2,223	STRETCH
0.40	down	4460.12	25.58	29.4%	2,223	STRETCH
0.50	up	4517.68	31.98	18.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT
0.50	down	4453.72	31.98	20.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT
0.75	up	4533.67	47.97	6.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT
0.75	down	4437.73	47.97	8.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	4549.66	63.96	2.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.00	down	4421.74	63.96	3.9%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	4581.64	95.94	0.4%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	4389.76	95.94	0.7%	2,223	LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	—	—	89.7%	2,223	NEAR BAND
0.05	down	—	—	90.2%	2,223	NEAR BAND
0.10	up	—	—	78.6%	2,223	LIKELY
0.10	down	—	—	78.8%	2,223	LIKELY
0.15	up	—	—	67.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.15	down	—	—	69.9%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.20	up	—	—	59.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.20	down	—	—	61.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.25	up	—	—	51.4%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.25	down	—	—	53.3%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.30	up	—	—	43.7%	2,223	STRETCH
0.30	down	—	—	45.8%	2,223	COIN FLIP
0.40	up	—	—	30.9%	2,223	STRETCH
0.40	down	—	—	33.2%	2,223	STRETCH
0.50	up	—	—	22.3%	2,223	LONG SHOT
0.50	down	—	—	23.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT
0.75	up	—	—	9.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT
0.75	down	—	—	10.4%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.00	up	—	—	3.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.00	down	—	—	4.6%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.50	up	—	—	0.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT
1.50	down	—	—	1.0%	2,223	LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,223	0.38	0.41	0.51	0.66	0.87	1.12	1.33	2.06
0930	2,223	0.39	0.44	0.54	0.70	0.93	1.20	1.46	2.18
1030	2,223	0.43	0.49	0.61	0.80	1.03	1.35	1.68	2.46

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n
<0.5	62.4%	378
0.5-0.85	59.7%	1,060
0.85-1.05	58.9%	338
1.05-1.25	62.6%	182
>1.25	63.2%	190

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4488.90	3.1979	87.7%	203	SCENERY
0.10	up	4492.10	6.3957	76.5%	115	SCENERY
0.15	up	4495.29	9.5936	63.5%	85	SCENERY
0.20	up	4498.49	12.79	55.0%	100	SCENERY
0.25	up	4501.69	15.99	41.0%	83	SCENERY
0.30	up	4504.89	19.19	35.7%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	4511.28	25.58	26.3%	99	SCENERY
0.50	up	4517.68	31.98	18.5%	92	SCENERY
0.75	up	4533.67	47.97	10.1%	79	SCENERY
1.00	up	4549.66	63.96	0.0%	44	SCENERY
1.50	up	4581.64	95.94	0.0%	18	SCENERY
0.05	down	4482.50	3.1979	88.6%	202	SCENERY
0.10	down	4479.30	6.3957	72.9%	140	SCENERY
0.15	down	4476.11	9.5936	69.6%	125	SCENERY
0.20	down	4472.91	12.79	50.5%	99	SCENERY
0.25	down	4469.71	15.99	41.4%	99	SCENERY
0.30	down	4466.51	19.19	43.8%	121	SCENERY
0.40	down	4460.12	25.58	29.6%	115	SCENERY
0.50	down	4453.72	31.98	15.9%	126	SCENERY
0.75	down	4437.73	47.97	13.9%	108	SCENERY
1.00	down	4421.74	63.96	9.1%	33	SCENERY
1.50	down	4389.76	95.94	11.1%	9	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4488.90	3.1979	90.9%	153	SCENERY
0.10	up	4492.10	6.3957	71.1%	83	SCENERY
0.15	up	4495.29	9.5936	65.8%	79	SCENERY
0.20	up	4498.49	12.79	48.1%	104	SCENERY
0.25	up	4501.69	15.99	46.2%	104	SCENERY
0.30	up	4504.89	19.19	35.2%	162	SCENERY
0.40	up	4511.28	25.58	24.9%	181	SCENERY
0.50	up	4517.68	31.98	18.3%	235	SCENERY
0.75	up	4533.67	47.97	4.0%	201	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	up	4549.66	63.96	3.5%	142	SCENERY
1.50	up	4581.64	95.94	0.0%	78	SCENERY
0.05	down	4482.50	3.1979	95.2%	103	SCENERY
0.10	down	4479.30	6.3957	70.3%	64	SCENERY
0.15	down	4476.11	9.5936	73.8%	61	PULLS
0.20	down	4472.91	12.79	55.6%	45	SCENERY
0.25	down	4469.71	15.99	49.1%	57	SCENERY
0.30	down	4466.51	19.19	41.2%	68	SCENERY
0.40	down	4460.12	25.58	40.0%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	4453.72	31.98	21.2%	85	SCENERY
0.75	down	4437.73	47.97	11.8%	68	SCENERY
1.00	down	4421.74	63.96	11.1%	36	SCENERY
1.50	down	4389.76	95.94	7.7%	13	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band
0.05	up	4488.90	3.1979	92.7%	96	PULLS
0.10	up	4492.10	6.3957	66.0%	47	SCENERY
0.15	up	4495.29	9.5936	52.8%	36	SCENERY
0.20	up	4498.49	12.79	51.5%	33	SCENERY
0.25	up	4501.69	15.99	46.7%	30	SCENERY
0.30	up	4504.89	19.19	27.5%	40	SCENERY
0.40	up	4511.28	25.58	37.5%	32	SCENERY
0.50	up	4517.68	31.98	20.0%	65	SCENERY
0.75	up	4533.67	47.97	11.1%	54	SCENERY
1.00	up	4549.66	63.96	3.0%	33	SCENERY
1.50	up	4581.64	95.94	0.0%	10	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	4482.50	3.1979	94.3%	105	SCENERY
0.10	down	4479.30	6.3957	76.0%	75	SCENERY
0.15	down	4476.11	9.5936	65.7%	108	SCENERY
0.20	down	4472.91	12.79	55.8%	104	SCENERY
0.25	down	4469.71	15.99	45.6%	103	SCENERY
0.30	down	4466.51	19.19	37.9%	153	SCENERY
0.40	down	4460.12	25.58	19.3%	192	REPELS
0.50	down	4453.72	31.98	12.9%	264	REPELS
0.75	down	4437.73	47.97	8.3%	276	SCENERY
1.00	down	4421.74	63.96	2.3%	217	SCENERY
1.50	down	4389.76	95.94	1.8%	110	SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4488.90	3.1979	92.2%	166	SCENERY
0.10	up	4492.10	6.3957	69.6%	115	SCENERY
0.15	up	4495.29	9.5936	64.2%	95	SCENERY
0.20	up	4498.49	12.79	51.3%	76	SCENERY
0.25	up	4501.69	15.99	60.9%	69	PULLS
0.30	up	4504.89	19.19	23.0%	100	REPELS
0.40	up	4511.28	25.58	32.4%	68	SCENERY
0.50	up	4517.68	31.98	14.8%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	4533.67	47.97	7.9%	89	SCENERY
1.00	up	4549.66	63.96	1.3%	77	SCENERY
1.50	up	4581.64	95.94	0.0%	33	SCENERY
0.05	down	4482.50	3.1979	88.2%	153	SCENERY
0.10	down	4479.30	6.3957	73.3%	101	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	4476.11	9.5936	62.2%	90	SCENERY
0.20	down	4472.91	12.79	52.0%	75	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	4469.71	15.99	41.4%	99	SCENERY
0.30	down	4466.51	19.19	41.2%	97	SCENERY
0.40	down	4460.12	25.58	34.8%	115	SCENERY
0.50	down	4453.72	31.98	16.3%	196	SCENERY
0.75	down	4437.73	47.97	12.1%	132	SCENERY
1.00	down	4421.74	63.96	7.9%	101	SCENERY
1.50	down	4389.76	95.94	0.0%	32	SCENERY

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4488.90	3.1979	92.4%	157	SCENERY
0.10	up	4492.10	6.3957	80.2%	101	SCENERY
0.15	up	4495.29	9.5936	56.3%	103	SCENERY
0.20	up	4498.49	12.79	63.6%	66	SCENERY
0.25	up	4501.69	15.99	33.3%	78	SCENERY
0.30	up	4504.89	19.19	35.0%	80	SCENERY
0.40	up	4511.28	25.58	24.2%	95	SCENERY
0.50	up	4517.68	31.98	16.1%	93	SCENERY
0.75	up	4533.67	47.97	8.8%	91	SCENERY
1.00	up	4549.66	63.96	1.7%	58	SCENERY
1.50	up	4581.64	95.94	0.0%	25	SCENERY
0.05	down	4482.50	3.1979	88.3%	171	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	4479.30	6.3957	75.6%	115	SCENERY
0.15	down	4476.11	9.5936	55.6%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	4472.91	12.79	57.0%	93	SCENERY
0.25	down	4469.71	15.99	38.0%	92	REPELS
0.30	down	4466.51	19.19	35.3%	119	SCENERY
0.40	down	4460.12	25.58	31.8%	129	SCENERY
0.50	down	4453.72	31.98	24.2%	153	SCENERY
0.75	down	4437.73	47.97	9.6%	115	SCENERY
1.00	down	4421.74	63.96	6.3%	79	PULLS
1.50	down	4389.76	95.94	5.6%	18	SCENERY

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4488.90	3.1979	90.2%	305	SCENERY
0.10	up	4492.10	6.3957	71.3%	160	SCENERY
0.15	up	4495.29	9.5936	60.6%	137	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	4498.49	12.79	58.8%	114	SCENERY
0.25	up	4501.69	15.99	52.6%	95	SCENERY
0.30	up	4504.89	19.19	41.2%	68	SCENERY
0.40	up	4511.28	25.58	36.1%	61	SCENERY
0.50	up	4517.68	31.98	21.4%	42	SCENERY
0.75	up	4533.67	47.97	4.6%	22	SCENERY
1.00	up	4549.66	63.96	33.3%	3	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.50	up	4581.64	95.94	0.0%	2	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0.05	down	4482.50	3.1979	89.2%	305	SCENERY
0.10	down	4479.30	6.3957	72.3%	213	SCENERY
0.15	down	4476.11	9.5936	64.8%	159	SCENERY
0.20	down	4472.91	12.79	58.5%	147	SCENERY
0.25	down	4469.71	15.99	50.9%	116	SCENERY
0.30	down	4466.51	19.19	47.8%	115	SCENERY
0.40	down	4460.12	25.58	25.5%	98	SCENERY
0.50	down	4453.72	31.98	27.1%	48	SCENERY
0.75	down	4437.73	47.97	0.0%	13	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1.00	down	4421.74	63.96	—	0	NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	49.6%	2,148
up >0.20	76.2%	105
up 0.10-0.20	63.4%	284
up 0.05-0.10	56.6%	320
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	49.9%	730	moved since 2018
dn 0.05-0.10	42.9%	301
dn 0.10-0.20	36.4%	280
dn >0.20	22.7%	128

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	44.8%	2,223
RTH low is final by 10:30	48.2%	2,223
Both high and low final by 10:30	8.6%	2,223
Low comes before high (full day)	50.5%	2,223
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	50.1%	2,223

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	66.2%	8,982
[0.25,0.5)	58.3%	6,585	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	56.9%	1,565
[0.75,1.0)	68.0%	415	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	66.9%	136	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	54.6%	66
[1.5,2.0)	66.7%	30
>=2.0	0.0%	5

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.