GC roadmap

Held era only (2,224 sessions, 2010-06-06 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

Current price: 4181.10 · ATR14: 40.09 · 09:30 open: 4205.00

Every probability below is measured on 2018-01-01 onward only (the most recent regime), never on the pooled full history: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 period and 2018 onward, so only the recent number ships. The era flag marks a cell that moved between the two periods -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4207.00	2.0046	88.1%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	4203.00	2.0046	88.8%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	4209.01	4.0093	75.3%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	4200.99	4.0093	78.0%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	4211.01	6.0139	65.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.15	down	4198.99	6.0139	66.9%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	up	4213.02	8.0186	56.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	4196.98	8.0186	57.3%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	4215.02	10.02	47.7%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	4194.98	10.02	48.6%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	up	4217.03	12.03	38.9%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.30	down	4192.97	12.03	41.4%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.40	up	4221.04	16.04	27.3%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	4188.96	16.04	29.4%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	4225.05	20.05	18.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.50	down	4184.95	20.05	20.1%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	up	4235.07	30.07	6.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	4174.93	30.07	8.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	4245.09	40.09	2.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	4164.91	40.09	3.9%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	4265.14	60.14	0.4%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	4144.86	60.14	0.7%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	—	—	89.7%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.05	down	—	—	90.2%	2,223	NEAR BAND	—
0.10	up	—	—	78.6%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.10	down	—	—	78.8%	2,223	LIKELY	—
0.15	up	—	—	67.5%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.15	down	—	—	69.9%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	up	—	—	59.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.20	down	—	—	61.0%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	up	—	—	51.4%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.25	down	—	—	53.3%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.30	up	—	—	43.7%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.30	down	—	—	45.8%	2,223	COIN FLIP	—
0.40	up	—	—	30.9%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.40	down	—	—	33.2%	2,223	STRETCH	—
0.50	up	—	—	22.3%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.50	down	—	—	23.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	up	—	—	9.2%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
0.75	down	—	—	10.4%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	up	—	—	3.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.00	down	—	—	4.6%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	up	—	—	0.8%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—
1.50	down	—	—	1.0%	2,223	LONG SHOT	—

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpoint	n	p5	p10	p25	p50	p75	p90	p95	p99
0845	2,223	0.38	0.41	0.51	0.66	0.87	1.12	1.33	2.06
0930	2,223	0.39	0.44	0.54	0.70	0.93	1.20	1.46	2.18
1030	2,223	0.43	0.49	0.61	0.80	1.03	1.35	1.68	2.46

Fade caution

range so far	p (held)	n	era flag
<0.5	62.4%	378	—
0.5-0.85	59.7%	1,060	—
0.85-1.05	58.9%	338	—
1.05-1.25	62.6%	182	—
>1.25	63.2%	190	—

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

SCENERY: no measurable difference - this level behaves like any other price at that distance.
PULLS: price reached this level clearly more often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.
REPELS: price reached this level clearly less often (5+ points, 95% interval excludes zero) than at any other level the same distance away.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4207.00	2.0046	87.7%	203	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4209.01	4.0093	76.5%	115	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4211.01	6.0139	63.5%	85	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4213.02	8.0186	55.0%	100	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4215.02	10.02	41.0%	83	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4217.03	12.03	35.7%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.40	up	4221.04	16.04	26.3%	99	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4225.05	20.05	18.5%	92	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4235.07	30.07	10.1%	79	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4245.09	40.09	0.0%	44	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4265.14	60.14	0.0%	18	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	4203.00	2.0046	88.6%	202	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4200.99	4.0093	72.9%	140	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4198.99	6.0139	69.6%	125	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	4196.98	8.0186	50.5%	99	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4194.98	10.02	41.4%	99	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4192.97	12.03	43.8%	121	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4188.96	16.04	29.6%	115	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	4184.95	20.05	15.9%	126	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4174.93	30.07	13.9%	108	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4164.91	40.09	9.1%	33	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	4144.86	60.14	11.1%	9	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day high

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4207.00	2.0046	90.9%	153	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4209.01	4.0093	71.1%	83	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4211.01	6.0139	65.8%	79	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4213.02	8.0186	48.1%	104	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4215.02	10.02	46.2%	104	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4217.03	12.03	35.2%	162	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	4221.04	16.04	24.9%	181	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4225.05	20.05	18.3%	235	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4235.07	30.07	4.0%	201	SCENERY	moved since 2018
1.00	up	4245.09	40.09	3.5%	142	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4265.14	60.14	0.0%	78	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	4203.00	2.0046	95.2%	103	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4200.99	4.0093	70.3%	64	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4198.99	6.0139	73.8%	61	PULLS	—
0.20	down	4196.98	8.0186	55.6%	45	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4194.98	10.02	49.1%	57	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4192.97	12.03	41.2%	68	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4188.96	16.04	40.0%	55	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.50	down	4184.95	20.05	21.2%	85	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4174.93	30.07	11.8%	68	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4164.91	40.09	11.1%	36	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	4144.86	60.14	7.7%	13	Not enough data (n<30)	—

Prior day low

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4207.00	2.0046	92.7%	96	PULLS	—
0.10	up	4209.01	4.0093	66.0%	47	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4211.01	6.0139	52.8%	36	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4213.02	8.0186	51.5%	33	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4215.02	10.02	46.7%	30	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4217.03	12.03	27.5%	40	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	4221.04	16.04	37.5%	32	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4225.05	20.05	20.0%	65	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4235.07	30.07	11.1%	54	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4245.09	40.09	3.0%	33	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4265.14	60.14	0.0%	10	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	4203.00	2.0046	94.3%	105	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4200.99	4.0093	76.0%	75	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4198.99	6.0139	65.7%	108	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	4196.98	8.0186	55.8%	104	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4194.98	10.02	45.6%	103	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4192.97	12.03	37.9%	153	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4188.96	16.04	19.3%	192	REPELS	—
0.50	down	4184.95	20.05	12.9%	264	REPELS	—
0.75	down	4174.93	30.07	8.3%	276	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4164.91	40.09	2.3%	217	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	4144.86	60.14	1.8%	110	SCENERY	—

Prior day mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4207.00	2.0046	92.2%	166	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4209.01	4.0093	69.6%	115	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4211.01	6.0139	64.2%	95	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4213.02	8.0186	51.3%	76	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4215.02	10.02	60.9%	69	PULLS	—
0.30	up	4217.03	12.03	23.0%	100	REPELS	—
0.40	up	4221.04	16.04	32.4%	68	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4225.05	20.05	14.8%	115	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.75	up	4235.07	30.07	7.9%	89	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4245.09	40.09	1.3%	77	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4265.14	60.14	0.0%	33	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	4203.00	2.0046	88.2%	153	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4200.99	4.0093	73.3%	101	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.15	down	4198.99	6.0139	62.2%	90	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	4196.98	8.0186	52.0%	75	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.25	down	4194.98	10.02	41.4%	99	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4192.97	12.03	41.2%	97	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4188.96	16.04	34.8%	115	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	4184.95	20.05	16.3%	196	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4174.93	30.07	12.1%	132	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4164.91	40.09	7.9%	101	SCENERY	—
1.50	down	4144.86	60.14	0.0%	32	SCENERY	—

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4207.00	2.0046	92.4%	157	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4209.01	4.0093	80.2%	101	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4211.01	6.0139	56.3%	103	SCENERY	—
0.20	up	4213.02	8.0186	63.6%	66	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4215.02	10.02	33.3%	78	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4217.03	12.03	35.0%	80	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	4221.04	16.04	24.2%	95	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4225.05	20.05	16.1%	93	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4235.07	30.07	8.8%	91	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4245.09	40.09	1.7%	58	SCENERY	—
1.50	up	4265.14	60.14	0.0%	25	SCENERY	—
0.05	down	4203.00	2.0046	88.3%	171	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.10	down	4200.99	4.0093	75.6%	115	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4198.99	6.0139	55.6%	99	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	down	4196.98	8.0186	57.0%	93	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4194.98	10.02	38.0%	92	REPELS	—
0.30	down	4192.97	12.03	35.3%	119	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4188.96	16.04	31.8%	129	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	4184.95	20.05	24.2%	153	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4174.93	30.07	9.6%	115	SCENERY	—
1.00	down	4164.91	40.09	6.3%	79	PULLS	—
1.50	down	4144.86	60.14	5.6%	18	SCENERY	—

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)	dir	price	points	p (held)	n	band	era flag
0.05	up	4207.00	2.0046	90.2%	305	SCENERY	—
0.10	up	4209.01	4.0093	71.3%	160	SCENERY	—
0.15	up	4211.01	6.0139	60.6%	137	SCENERY	moved since 2018
0.20	up	4213.02	8.0186	58.8%	114	SCENERY	—
0.25	up	4215.02	10.02	52.6%	95	SCENERY	—
0.30	up	4217.03	12.03	41.2%	68	SCENERY	—
0.40	up	4221.04	16.04	36.1%	61	SCENERY	—
0.50	up	4225.05	20.05	21.4%	42	SCENERY	—
0.75	up	4235.07	30.07	4.6%	22	SCENERY	—
1.00	up	4245.09	40.09	33.3%	3	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.50	up	4265.14	60.14	0.0%	2	Not enough data (n<30)	—
0.05	down	4203.00	2.0046	89.2%	305	SCENERY	—
0.10	down	4200.99	4.0093	72.3%	213	SCENERY	—
0.15	down	4198.99	6.0139	64.8%	159	SCENERY	—
0.20	down	4196.98	8.0186	58.5%	147	SCENERY	—
0.25	down	4194.98	10.02	50.9%	116	SCENERY	—
0.30	down	4192.97	12.03	47.8%	115	SCENERY	—
0.40	down	4188.96	16.04	25.5%	98	SCENERY	—
0.50	down	4184.95	20.05	27.1%	48	SCENERY	—
0.75	down	4174.93	30.07	0.0%	13	Not enough data (n<30)	—
1.00	down	4164.91	40.09	—	0	Not enough data (n<30)	—

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

band	p (held)	n	era flag
ALL (pooled)	49.6%	2,148	—
up >0.20	76.2%	105	—
up 0.10-0.20	63.4%	284	—
up 0.05-0.10	56.6%	320	—
near 0 (<0.05 abs)	49.9%	730	moved since 2018
dn 0.05-0.10	42.9%	301	—
dn 0.10-0.20	36.4%	280	—
dn >0.20	22.7%	128	—

One end by 10:30

metric	p (held)	n
RTH high is final by 10:30	44.8%	2,223
RTH low is final by 10:30	48.2%	2,223
Both high and low final by 10:30	8.6%	2,223
Low comes before high (full day)	50.5%	2,223
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)	50.1%	2,223

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)	p (held)	n	era flag
[0,0.25)	66.2%	8,982	—
[0.25,0.5)	58.3%	6,585	moved since 2018
[0.5,0.75)	56.9%	1,565	—
[0.75,1.0)	68.0%	415	moved since 2018
[1.0,1.25)	66.9%	136	moved since 2018
[1.25,1.5)	54.6%	66	—
[1.5,2.0)	66.7%	30	—
>=2.0	0.0%	5	—

Low is in before the high

Share of days where the RTH low / high of the day has already been set, by clock checkpoint.

By 15:00 the low is already in 90% of days, the high 89%.

checkpoint	low in %	high in %	diff	n
09:45	25.2%	23.7%	+1.6	2,223
10:30	48.2%	44.8%	+3.4	2,223
12:00	67.9%	64.8%	+3.1	2,223
14:00	82.5%	81.4%	+1.0	2,223
15:00	89.8%	88.8%	+1.0	2,223

Don't fade a stretched day

At each checkpoint, chance the day's range still extends >=0.05 ATR further by the 16:00 close, by how far the range has already stretched.

range so far (ATR)	10:30	12:00	14:00
<0.80	52.3%	32.7%	16.6%
0.80-1.05	75.8% reading, not a rule (n=33)	42.3% reading, not a rule (n=78)	19.8%
1.05-1.25	77.8% reading, not a rule (n=9)	17.2% reading, not a rule (n=29)	17.4% reading, not a rule (n=46)
>=1.25	54.6% reading, not a rule (n=11)	30.3% reading, not a rule (n=33)	14.9% reading, not a rule (n=47)

Yesterday's close vs. prior day range

R1/R2 use the full session (18:00-17:00 ET) close and prior-day range, not RTH -- see the note on the JSON for how this differs from the named-levels section above.

R1: yesterday's close broke above the older high (bullish, target = yesterday's high) (n: 1,064)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
76.6% (base 51.9%)	75.6% (base 47.0%)	49.8% (base 52.4%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~82%.

R2: yesterday's close broke below the older low (bearish, target = yesterday's low) (n: 883)

touch %	touch first %	closes in bias dir %
64.7% (base 44.4%)	62.7% (base 38.8%)	43.3% (base 47.3%)

Most of this is distance: within 0.25 ATR of the level the unconditional touch rate is already ~75%.

Show 77%+ only

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.