foxalgo.io

RTY roadmap

Held era only (2 227 sessions, 2017-07-09 .. 2026-08-13) — see the note below on why fit-era numbers never ship here.

Probabilités mesurées. Aucun signal de trade. ce que cela signifie →

Current price: 2923,00 · ATR14: 24,65 · 09:30 open: 2959,30

Every probability below is p_held (measured 2018-01-01 onward only), never the pooled/fit figure -- see parity/roadmap/NALEZY_PRO_WEB.md #1: 35.2% of touch-ladder cells differ significantly between the pre-2018 fit era and held era, so only the held (most-recent-regime) number ships. fit_held_differs_ci95 (where present) flags a cell that moved between eras -- read it as a stability caveat, not a probability.

The map

Touch ladder

Anchored to the 09:30 ET open — price/points columns use today's open and current ATR14.

d (ATR)dirpricepointsp (held)nbandera flag
0,05up2960,531,232589,5%2 221NEAR BAND
0,05down2958,071,232591,4%2 221NEAR BAND
0,10up2961,772,465081,6%2 221LIKELY
0,10down2956,842,465082,7%2 221LIKELY
0,15up2963,003,697573,1%2 221LIKELY
0,15down2955,603,697575,2%2 221LIKELY
0,20up2964,234,930064,8%2 221COIN FLIP
0,20down2954,374,930068,3%2 221COIN FLIP
0,25up2965,466,162558,5%2 221COIN FLIP
0,25down2953,146,162561,4%2 221COIN FLIP
0,30up2966,707,395052,2%2 221COIN FLIP
0,30down2951,917,395054,9%2 221COIN FLIP
0,40up2969,169,860040,0%2 221STRETCH
0,40down2949,449,860044,4%2 221STRETCH
0,50up2971,6312,3329,6%2 221STRETCH
0,50down2946,9812,3335,4%2 221STRETCH
0,75up2977,7918,4912,6%2 221LONG SHOT
0,75down2940,8118,4918,4%2 221LONG SHOT
1,00up2983,9524,655,1%2 221LONG SHOT
1,00down2934,6524,658,3%2 221LONG SHOT
1,50up2996,2836,981,1%2 221LONG SHOT
1,50down2922,3336,982,2%2 221LONG SHOT

Anchored to the 08:45 ET checkpoint — shown in ATR distance only, no live price conversion for this anchor.

d (ATR)dirpricepointsp (held)nbandera flag
0,05up——91,2%2 225NEAR BAND
0,05down——92,5%2 225NEAR BAND
0,10up——81,9%2 225LIKELY
0,10down——84,3%2 225LIKELY
0,15up——73,4%2 225LIKELY
0,15down——76,4%2 225LIKELY
0,20up——66,5%2 225COIN FLIP
0,20down——69,3%2 225COIN FLIP
0,25up——58,9%2 225COIN FLIPmoved since 2018
0,25down——62,7%2 225COIN FLIP
0,30up——52,2%2 225COIN FLIP
0,30down——56,6%2 225COIN FLIP
0,40up——40,2%2 225STRETCH
0,40down——45,4%2 225COIN FLIP
0,50up——30,3%2 225STRETCH
0,50down——35,2%2 225STRETCHmoved since 2018
0,75up——13,1%2 225LONG SHOT
0,75down——18,9%2 225LONG SHOT
1,00up——5,7%2 225LONG SHOT
1,00down——9,0%2 225LONG SHOT
1,50up——1,2%2 225LONG SHOT
1,50down——2,2%2 225LONG SHOT

State of the day

Historical percentiles of the day's range-so-far at each checkpoint, in ATR — informational reference, not compared against today's live range here.

checkpointnp5p10p25p50p75p90p95p99
08452 2270,240,270,350,470,640,871,051,72
09302 2270,260,300,380,500,680,921,121,82
10302 2270,360,420,530,690,901,171,382,03

Fade caution

range so farp (held)nera flag
<0.553,7%1 038
0.5-0.8549,9%822
0.85-1.0553,2%156
1.05-1.2550,0%48
>1.2554,3%81

Named levels

Distances are ATR-relative to the 09:30 open, same convention as the touch ladder above.

Midnight open (00:00 ET)

d (ATR)dirpricepointsp (held)nbandera flag
0,05up2960,531,232592,4%262SCENERY
0,10up2961,772,465081,1%148SCENERY
0,15up2963,003,697570,1%127SCENERY
0,20up2964,234,930061,0%105SCENERY
0,25up2965,466,162551,3%76SCENERY
0,30up2966,707,395051,0%100SCENERY
0,40up2969,169,860036,8%76SCENERY
0,50up2971,6312,3335,4%82SCENERY
0,75up2977,7918,4942,5%40PULLS
1,00up2983,9524,6518,8%16NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50up2996,2836,980,0%4NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05down2958,071,232592,9%252SCENERY
0,10down2956,842,465080,1%171SCENERY
0,15down2955,603,697574,0%154SCENERY
0,20down2954,374,930069,2%130SCENERY
0,25down2953,146,162567,2%122SCENERY
0,30down2951,917,395053,6%138SCENERY
0,40down2949,449,860051,1%88SCENERY
0,50down2946,9812,3335,4%82SCENERY
0,75down2940,8118,4926,9%26NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,00down2934,6524,650,0%10NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50down2922,3336,980,0%8NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day high

d (ATR)dirpricepointsp (held)nbandera flag
0,05up2960,531,232590,6%138SCENERY
0,10up2961,772,465077,7%103SCENERY
0,15up2963,003,697567,5%114SCENERY
0,20up2964,234,930062,1%95SCENERY
0,25up2965,466,162554,2%96SCENERY
0,30up2966,707,395044,9%156SCENERY
0,40up2969,169,860039,4%175SCENERY
0,50up2971,6312,3327,1%273SCENERY
0,75up2977,7918,4917,6%261SCENERY
1,00up2983,9524,657,6%183SCENERY
1,50up2996,2836,983,6%83SCENERY
0,05down2958,071,232592,8%138SCENERY
0,10down2956,842,465071,0%69REPELS
0,15down2955,603,697578,3%46SCENERY
0,20down2954,374,930071,7%60SCENERY
0,25down2953,146,162561,5%39SCENERY
0,30down2951,917,395045,0%40SCENERY
0,40down2949,449,860037,3%51SCENERY
0,50down2946,9812,3337,0%27NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,75down2940,8118,4916,7%12NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,00down2934,6524,650,0%5NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50down2922,3336,9820,0%5NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior day low

d (ATR)dirpricepointsp (held)nbandera flag
0,05up2960,531,232597,9%96PULLS
0,10up2961,772,465082,5%40SCENERY
0,15up2963,003,697581,8%33SCENERY
0,20up2964,234,930063,6%22NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,25up2965,466,162556,7%30SCENERY
0,30up2966,707,395050,0%38SCENERY
0,40up2969,169,860085,7%28NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,50up2971,6312,3340,7%27NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,75up2977,7918,4927,8%18NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,00up2983,9524,6530,8%13NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50up2996,2836,980,0%3NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05down2958,071,232595,6%113SCENERY
0,10down2956,842,465079,4%63SCENERY
0,15down2955,603,697577,5%89SCENERY
0,20down2954,374,930066,3%83SCENERY
0,25down2953,146,162548,8%84REPELS
0,30down2951,917,395055,8%154SCENERY
0,40down2949,449,860047,6%191SCENERY
0,50down2946,9812,3332,4%355SCENERY
0,75down2940,8118,4914,7%340SCENERY
1,00down2934,6524,6512,8%281SCENERY
1,50down2922,3336,983,4%89SCENERY

Prior day mid

d (ATR)dirpricepointsp (held)nbandera flag
0,05up2960,531,232590,1%151SCENERY
0,10up2961,772,465082,8%87SCENERY
0,15up2963,003,697569,4%98SCENERY
0,20up2964,234,930070,4%71SCENERY
0,25up2965,466,162565,8%79SCENERY
0,30up2966,707,395058,4%101SCENERY
0,40up2969,169,860037,0%92SCENERY
0,50up2971,6312,3336,6%123SCENERY
0,75up2977,7918,4921,2%104PULLS
1,00up2983,9524,6512,8%47SCENERY
1,50up2996,2836,986,3%16NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05down2958,071,232597,3%150PULLS
0,10down2956,842,465084,3%108SCENERY
0,15down2955,603,697574,1%108SCENERY
0,20down2954,374,930072,0%107SCENERY
0,25down2953,146,162557,0%107SCENERY
0,30down2951,917,395056,8%132SCENERY
0,40down2949,449,860040,3%139SCENERY
0,50down2946,9812,3333,0%185SCENERY
0,75down2940,8118,4920,5%151SCENERY
1,00down2934,6524,6510,5%38SCENERY
1,50down2922,3336,980,0%6NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

Prior settlement / close

d (ATR)dirpricepointsp (held)nbandera flag
0,05up2960,531,232588,2%187SCENERY
0,10up2961,772,465085,0%127SCENERY
0,15up2963,003,697573,2%97SCENERY
0,20up2964,234,930060,0%95SCENERY
0,25up2965,466,162565,3%75SCENERY
0,30up2966,707,395048,8%86SCENERY
0,40up2969,169,860051,6%95PULLS
0,50up2971,6312,3337,1%89SCENERY
0,75up2977,7918,4927,3%55PULLS
1,00up2983,9524,6528,0%25NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50up2996,2836,980,0%9NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05down2958,071,232594,7%209SCENERY
0,10down2956,842,465082,5%126SCENERY
0,15down2955,603,697569,9%143SCENERY
0,20down2954,374,930064,9%111SCENERY
0,25down2953,146,162562,4%117SCENERY
0,30down2951,917,395055,0%140SCENERY
0,40down2949,449,860045,2%124SCENERY
0,50down2946,9812,3328,4%141SCENERY
0,75down2940,8118,4921,8%55SCENERY
1,00down2934,6524,6533,3%18NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,50down2922,3336,980,0%7NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

18:00 ET session mid

d (ATR)dirpricepointsp (held)nbandera flag
0,05up2960,531,232592,4%407SCENERY
0,10up2961,772,465080,7%243SCENERY
0,15up2963,003,697571,9%146SCENERY
0,20up2964,234,930069,1%84SCENERY
0,25up2965,466,162570,6%51PULLS
0,30up2966,707,395067,4%46PULLS
0,40up2969,169,860054,6%22NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,50up2971,6312,3350,0%14NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,75up2977,7918,4933,3%3NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,05down2958,071,232592,5%440SCENERY
0,10down2956,842,465077,9%298SCENERY
0,15down2955,603,697573,7%186SCENERY
0,20down2954,374,930074,2%120SCENERY
0,25down2953,146,162561,9%63SCENERY
0,30down2951,917,395065,4%52SCENERY
0,40down2949,449,860055,6%27NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,50down2946,9812,3338,5%13NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
0,75down2940,8118,4980,0%5NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)
1,00down2934,6524,650,0%1NEZMERENO (n<MIN_N)

The playbook

09:45 checkpoint

bandp (held)nera flag
ALL (pooled)50,5%2 144
up >0.2075,2%306
up 0.10-0.2064,8%315
up 0.05-0.1057,3%206
near 0 (<0.05 abs)51,0%433
dn 0.05-0.1046,0%202
dn 0.10-0.2037,7%350
dn >0.2025,3%332

One end by 10:30

metricp (held)n
RTH high is final by 10:3044,1%2 222
RTH low is final by 10:3045,0%2 222
Both high and low final by 10:305,9%2 222
Low comes before high (full day)50,0%2 222
Low comes before high (09:30-10:30 window)47,9%2 222

Stop-fading curve

checkpoints pooled 09:45..11:30 every 15min; range_so_far = larger of (up-extreme, down-extreme) reached so far since 09:30 open, in ATR; continuation = later RTH bar exceeds that same-direction extreme further

range so far (ATR bin)p (held)nera flag
[0,0.25)69,8%4 764
[0.25,0.5)67,0%8 593
[0.5,0.75)66,5%3 207
[0.75,1.0)64,1%875
[1.0,1.25)68,9%238
[1.25,1.5)76,5%51
[1.5,2.0)88,5%26
>=2.07,1%14

Covers 10 symbols: the 6 site futures plus 6A/6B/6E/6J.