foxalgoRecord
89.9% headline hit rate across 62,022 backfilled calls. This is a BACKFILL, not a live-tracked record — see the note below.
Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →
This is a backfill, not a live record
This page is a rules-based backfill: the published rule replayed over 2010–2026 history (RTY from 2017-07). It is not a record of calls published before their outcomes. Live, timestamped calls are graded separately on /ranges.
Parameter disclosure
The target and invalidation distances are product choices, picked from a 48-cell grid so that the rule's decision speed and tier spread match what a trader expects from a call service. They are not fitted to outcomes. Given the rule, the probabilities are calibrated walk-forward: fit on years before Y, applied to year Y.
The rule
A call is graded by a published race: a 0.05 ATR target touch versus a 0.15 ATR invalidation close, capped at 40 periods.
Bars compose on a 00:00 UTC daily grid — crypto trades continuously, 24/7.
Live crypto calls use Bybit spot 15-minute bars; the backfill and calibration on this page use Binance. The two agreed on 97% of HIT/MISS outcomes in a 45-day check.
EXPIRED (neither target nor invalidation hit within the 40-period cap): 0.000% of calls (0) — excluded from the odds fit and from every tier's hit rate.
Stated vs. actual, by tier
| tier | stated | actual | gap | n | reportable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 84.0% | 88.1% | +4.04 pp | 11,309 | yes |
| B | 79.7% | 86.2% | +6.55 pp | 638 | yes |
| D | 73.3% | 82.9% | +9.57 pp | 275 | no |
| S | 91.0% | 91.9% | +0.84 pp | 49,800 | yes |
Stated vs. actual, by year
| year | stated | actual | gap | n | reportable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 79.5% | 90.0% | +10.53 pp | 5,292 | yes |
| 2019 | 84.1% | 81.8% | -2.38 pp | 7,067 | yes |
| 2020 | 83.7% | 86.7% | +2.98 pp | 11,944 | yes |
| 2021 | 85.5% | 91.9% | +6.32 pp | 20,830 | yes |
| 2022 | 88.5% | 92.5% | +3.96 pp | 14,121 | yes |
| 2023 | 88.8% | 91.5% | +2.71 pp | 10,432 | yes |
| 2024 | 89.4% | 91.3% | +1.86 pp | 20,388 | yes |
| 2025 | 89.9% | 90.8% | +0.90 pp | 22,880 | yes |
| 2026 | 90.0% | 90.9% | +0.89 pp | 8,322 | yes |
Stated vs. actual, by market
| market | stated | actual | gap | n | reportable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAXUSDT | 89.5% | 91.6% | +2.13 pp | 13,159 | yes |
| BTCUSDT | 89.4% | 90.3% | +0.85 pp | 10,028 | yes |
| DOGEUSDT | 89.5% | 90.3% | +0.75 pp | 8,298 | yes |
| ETHUSDT | 89.8% | 91.5% | +1.72 pp | 6,806 | yes |
| LINKUSDT | 89.6% | 91.3% | +1.68 pp | 13,487 | yes |
| SOLUSDT | 89.7% | 91.4% | +1.66 pp | 10,244 | yes |
Stated vs. actual, by timeframe
| TF | stated | actual | gap | n | reportable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m | 87.1% | 89.4% | +2.22 pp | 24,456 | yes |
| 30m | 90.3% | 91.6% | +1.29 pp | 10,844 | yes |
| 45m | 90.5% | 91.7% | +1.21 pp | 6,739 | yes |
| 60m | 91.5% | 93.1% | +1.66 pp | 5,092 | yes |
| 75m | 91.2% | 92.3% | +1.11 pp | 4,216 | yes |
| 90m | 91.4% | 92.7% | +1.28 pp | 3,273 | yes |
| 105m | 92.5% | 92.2% | -0.31 pp | 2,934 | yes |
| 120m | 92.9% | 93.1% | +0.22 pp | 2,462 | yes |
| 150m | 92.4% | 92.8% | +0.38 pp | 2,006 | yes |
Payoff
What the published rule actually pays, per call, gross of costs: a hit realizes exactly the target (+0.05 ATR), a miss realizes the deciding close. High hit rate, small wins, larger losses — the expected value is slightly negative, and a call only breaks even above the win rate in the last column. Spread and commission make it worse.
| tier | win % | payoff (avg win / avg loss) | EV/call (ATR, gross) | break-even win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| overall | 89.9% | 0.059 | -0.040 | 94.4% |
| A | 88.5% | 0.059 | -0.053 | 94.4% |
| B | 86.2% | 0.057 | -0.077 | 94.6% |
| D | 81.1% | 0.054 | -0.135 | 94.9% |
| S | 91.8% | 0.062 | -0.020 | 94.2% |
Fixed-horizon side number
1-period close-vs-entry outcome, reported ALONGSIDE the v3 asymmetric-race status (target touch / invalidation close) -- 'hit is not whether it paid'. Independent field, not a substitute for the main HIT/MISS/EXPIRED status.
| tier | 1-period rate | n |
|---|---|---|
| A | 42.8% | 22,894 |
| B | 42.1% | 7,530 |
| D | 42.5% | 10,799 |
| S | 43.4% | 82,565 |
Download
Every backfilled call, unfiltered: record-backfill-crypto.csv (7.3 MB, CSV)
All times are US Eastern (ET). "date" is when the call became known: the close of the trigger bar, whose closing price is the entry. "resolved" is the close of the bar that decided HIT or MISS.
By market, year by year
Stated vs. actual hit rate for tiers S, A and B, year by year for each market. This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record.
BTCUSDT
BTCUSDT: 91.5% actual vs. 88.2% stated (+3.4 pp) across 18,478 calls
ETHUSDT
ETHUSDT: 92.1% actual vs. 87.7% stated (+4.4 pp) across 17,586 calls
SOLUSDT
SOLUSDT: 91.3% actual vs. 88.5% stated (+2.8 pp) across 18,460 calls
AVAXUSDT
AVAXUSDT: 91.1% actual vs. 88.7% stated (+2.4 pp) across 20,440 calls
LINKUSDT
LINKUSDT: 90.7% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+2.4 pp) across 25,128 calls
DOGEUSDT
DOGEUSDT: 87.2% actual vs. 88.2% stated (-1.0 pp) across 14,365 calls