This page is a rules-based backfill: the published rule replayed over 2010–2026 history (RTY from 2017-07). It is not a record of calls published before their outcomes. Live, timestamped calls are graded separately on /ranges.
Parameter disclosure
The target and invalidation distances are product choices, picked from a 48-cell grid so that the rule's decision speed and tier spread match what a trader expects from a call service. They are not fitted to outcomes. Given the rule, the probabilities are calibrated walk-forward: fit on years before Y, applied to year Y.
The rule
A call is graded by a published race: a 0.05 ATR target touch versus a 0.15 ATR invalidation close, capped at 40 periods.
Bars compose on regular trading hours only (09:30-16:00 ET) — extended-hours bars are excluded.
EXPIRED (neither target nor invalidation hit within the 40-period cap): 0.000% of calls (0) — excluded from the odds fit and from every tier's hit rate.
Stated vs. actual, by tier
tier
stated
actual
gap
n
reportable
A
85.2%
86.8%
+1.65 pp
41,450
yes
B
79.2%
87.5%
+8.34 pp
481
no
D
75.4%
86.1%
+10.67 pp
36
no
S
89.3%
90.2%
+0.97 pp
162,585
yes
Stated vs. actual, by year
year
stated
actual
gap
n
reportable
2006
88.0%
89.5%
+1.41 pp
9,261
yes
2007
88.7%
88.1%
-0.59 pp
8,896
yes
2008
88.6%
88.6%
-0.01 pp
9,783
yes
2009
88.6%
86.7%
-1.88 pp
10,661
yes
2010
88.2%
87.7%
-0.51 pp
10,447
yes
2011
88.1%
88.2%
+0.09 pp
14,494
yes
2012
88.1%
87.9%
-0.22 pp
14,273
yes
2013
88.0%
87.5%
-0.57 pp
15,741
yes
2014
88.0%
88.1%
+0.06 pp
17,494
yes
2015
87.8%
87.0%
-0.80 pp
17,471
yes
2016
87.9%
88.5%
+0.58 pp
18,794
yes
2017
87.9%
89.8%
+1.81 pp
17,526
yes
2018
88.1%
90.2%
+2.12 pp
20,155
yes
2019
88.4%
89.4%
+1.00 pp
17,746
yes
2020
88.3%
89.0%
+0.66 pp
19,444
yes
2021
88.5%
89.3%
+0.79 pp
19,839
yes
2022
88.4%
89.2%
+0.81 pp
25,663
yes
2023
88.6%
90.2%
+1.60 pp
19,386
yes
2024
88.8%
90.0%
+1.20 pp
18,977
yes
2025
88.9%
88.9%
+0.01 pp
16,851
yes
2026
88.9%
91.2%
+2.34 pp
10,171
yes
Stated vs. actual, by market
market
stated
actual
gap
n
reportable
AAPL
88.4%
89.4%
+0.97 pp
16,084
yes
AMD
88.4%
89.8%
+1.38 pp
14,462
yes
AMZN
88.4%
89.6%
+1.24 pp
16,142
yes
DIA
88.5%
88.2%
-0.25 pp
19,431
yes
GOOGL
88.4%
89.6%
+1.13 pp
14,748
yes
IWM
88.4%
89.6%
+1.24 pp
18,436
yes
META
88.5%
90.4%
+1.92 pp
14,046
yes
MSFT
88.4%
89.1%
+0.66 pp
14,894
yes
NVDA
88.4%
89.5%
+1.14 pp
16,266
yes
QQQ
88.4%
89.6%
+1.23 pp
23,550
yes
SPY
88.4%
89.6%
+1.22 pp
23,116
yes
TSLA
88.4%
90.5%
+2.04 pp
13,377
yes
Stated vs. actual, by timeframe
TF
stated
actual
gap
n
reportable
15m
88.5%
90.4%
+1.96 pp
64,928
yes
30m
88.9%
90.2%
+1.32 pp
34,144
yes
45m
88.9%
89.9%
+0.98 pp
24,309
yes
60m
89.0%
89.9%
+0.93 pp
18,854
yes
75m
88.1%
88.5%
+0.46 pp
16,624
yes
90m
88.0%
88.0%
+0.03 pp
14,019
yes
105m
87.8%
87.9%
+0.08 pp
11,526
yes
120m
87.4%
87.9%
+0.52 pp
11,221
yes
150m
86.9%
87.1%
+0.20 pp
8,927
yes
Payoff
What the published rule actually pays, per call, gross of costs: a hit realizes exactly the target (+0.05 ATR), a miss realizes the deciding close. High hit rate, small wins, larger losses — the expected value is slightly negative, and a call only breaks even above the win rate in the last column. Spread and commission make it worse.
tier
win %
payoff (avg win / avg loss)
EV/call (ATR, gross)
break-even win %
overall
88.9%
0.050
-0.067
95.3%
A
85.9%
0.048
-0.103
95.4%
B
82.1%
0.064
-0.098
93.9%
D
88.1%
0.054
-0.066
94.9%
S
89.7%
0.050
-0.058
95.2%
Fixed-horizon side number
1-period close-vs-entry outcome, reported ALONGSIDE the v3 asymmetric-race status (target touch / invalidation close) -- 'hit is not whether it paid'. Independent field, not a substitute for the main HIT/MISS/EXPIRED status.
All times are US Eastern (ET). "date" is when the call became known: the close of the trigger bar, whose closing price is the entry. "resolved" is the close of the bar that decided HIT or MISS.
By market, year by year
Stated vs. actual hit rate for tiers S, A and B, year by year for each market. This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record.
SPY
SPY: 89.5% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+1.2 pp) across 26,447 calls
QQQ
QQQ: 89.9% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.6 pp) across 33,278 calls
IWM
IWM: 89.8% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.5 pp) across 34,003 calls
DIA
DIA: 87.8% actual vs. 88.4% stated (-0.6 pp) across 36,330 calls
AAPL
AAPL: 89.5% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.2 pp) across 31,868 calls
MSFT
MSFT: 89.2% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+0.9 pp) across 27,592 calls
NVDA
NVDA: 88.6% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+0.3 pp) across 30,443 calls
AMZN
AMZN: 89.3% actual vs. 88.3% stated (+1.0 pp) across 28,892 calls
META
META: 90.3% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+1.9 pp) across 18,927 calls
GOOGL
GOOGL: 89.1% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.8 pp) across 17,509 calls
TSLA
TSLA: 88.8% actual vs. 88.4% stated (+0.5 pp) across 19,350 calls
AMD
AMD: 85.1% actual vs. 88.2% stated (-3.0 pp) across 28,363 calls
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