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Record

FuturesFXStocksCrypto

87.9% headline hit rate across 373,246 backfilled calls. This is a BACKFILL, not a live-tracked record — see the note below.

Measured odds. No trade calls. what this means →

This is a backfill, not a live record

This page is a rules-based backfill: the published rule replayed over 2010–2026 history (RTY from 2017-07). It is not a record of calls published before their outcomes. Live, timestamped calls are graded separately on /ranges.

Parameter disclosure

The target and invalidation distances are product choices, picked from a 48-cell grid so that the rule's decision speed and tier spread match what a trader expects from a call service. They are not fitted to outcomes. Given the rule, the probabilities are calibrated walk-forward: fit on years before Y, applied to year Y.

The rule

A call is graded by a published race: a 0.05 ATR target touch versus a 0.15 ATR invalidation close, capped at 40 periods.

Bars compose on the same 18:00 ET session grid futures uses.

EXPIRED (neither target nor invalidation hit within the 40-period cap): 0.000% of calls (0) — excluded from the odds fit and from every tier's hit rate.

Stated vs. actual, by tier

tierstatedactualgapnreportable
A83.9%85.7%+1.81 pp122,000yes
B80.0%83.3%+3.22 pp10,507yes
D67.4%67.6%+0.17 pp11,378yes
S90.2%90.9%+0.66 pp229,361yes

Stated vs. actual, by year

yearstatedactualgapnreportable
201486.4%86.1%-0.25 pp26,370yes
201586.5%86.6%+0.08 pp28,631yes
201686.5%87.2%+0.63 pp30,805yes
201786.7%87.3%+0.58 pp31,240yes
201886.7%87.9%+1.17 pp34,068yes
201987.3%86.9%-0.35 pp33,173yes
202087.2%88.6%+1.40 pp34,191yes
202187.2%88.9%+1.69 pp38,636yes
202287.4%87.5%+0.18 pp38,085yes
202387.2%88.3%+1.10 pp39,503yes
202487.4%89.3%+1.95 pp39,275yes
202587.8%89.7%+1.85 pp36,844yes
202687.7%89.7%+1.93 pp17,426yes

Stated vs. actual, by market

marketstatedactualgapnreportable
AUDUSD87.2%88.6%+1.42 pp43,799yes
EURJPY87.3%88.7%+1.40 pp38,336yes
EURUSD87.0%87.5%+0.48 pp39,213yes
GBPJPY87.2%88.9%+1.64 pp33,490yes
GBPUSD87.1%87.7%+0.65 pp39,659yes
NZDUSD87.2%88.2%+0.93 pp44,872yes
USDCAD87.0%88.0%+0.95 pp49,274yes
USDCHF87.3%87.9%+0.63 pp44,429yes
USDJPY87.3%89.2%+1.90 pp40,174yes

Stated vs. actual, by timeframe

TFstatedactualgapnreportable
15m86.3%87.6%+1.28 pp129,093yes
30m86.6%87.9%+1.26 pp62,703yes
45m88.2%89.2%+0.94 pp43,556yes
60m86.9%88.2%+1.36 pp32,686yes
75m88.6%89.4%+0.72 pp27,709yes
90m88.0%88.7%+0.66 pp23,526yes
105m87.8%88.4%+0.63 pp21,122yes
120m88.2%89.2%+1.06 pp17,658yes
150m88.6%89.2%+0.63 pp15,193yes

Payoff

What the published rule actually pays, per call, gross of costs: a hit realizes exactly the target (+0.05 ATR), a miss realizes the deciding close. High hit rate, small wins, larger losses — the expected value is slightly negative, and a call only breaks even above the win rate in the last column. Spread and commission make it worse.

tierwin %payoff (avg win / avg loss)EV/call (ATR, gross)break-even win %
overall87.9%0.067-0.04693.7%
A85.5%0.082-0.04692.4%
B82.0%0.083-0.06892.4%
D80.0%0.068-0.10793.6%
S90.8%0.057-0.03594.6%

Fixed-horizon side number

1-period close-vs-entry outcome, reported ALONGSIDE the v3 asymmetric-race status (target touch / invalidation close) -- 'hit is not whether it paid'. Independent field, not a substitute for the main HIT/MISS/EXPIRED status.

tier1-period raten
A44.9%140,912
B42.4%14,882
D41.4%39,060
S47.6%257,984

Download

Every backfilled call, unfiltered: record-backfill-fx.csv (25.2 MB, CSV)

All times are US Eastern (ET). "date" is when the call became known: the close of the trigger bar, whose closing price is the entry. "resolved" is the close of the bar that decided HIT or MISS.

By market, year by year

Stated vs. actual hit rate for tiers S, A and B, year by year for each market. This is a rules-based backfill, not the live record.

EURUSD

50607080901002014 stated: 86.8%2014 actual: 84.9% (-1.9 pp) -- n = 2,40420142015 stated: 86.6%2015 actual: 87.1% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 2,72620152016 stated: 87.4%2016 actual: 86.8% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 2,87020162017 stated: 87.3%2017 actual: 87.2% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 3,36120172018 stated: 87.7%2018 actual: 88.2% (+0.5 pp) -- n = 3,41920182019 stated: 87.8%2019 actual: 86.1% (-1.7 pp) -- n = 3,12720192020 stated: 87.8%2020 actual: 88.3% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 3,35920202021 stated: 87.5%2021 actual: 88.9% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 3,85920212022 stated: 87.9%2022 actual: 88.2% (+0.2 pp) -- n = 3,87720222023 stated: 87.7%2023 actual: 88.2% (+0.5 pp) -- n = 4,51220232024 stated: 87.8%2024 actual: 88.3% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 4,46320242025 stated: 88.0%2025 actual: 89.9% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 3,44920252026 stated: 88.3%2026 actual: 90.7% (+2.4 pp) -- n = 1,6452026

EURUSD: 87.9% actual vs. 87.6% stated (+0.3 pp) across 43,071 calls

GBPUSD

50607080901002014 stated: 86.7%2014 actual: 85.3% (-1.4 pp) -- n = 2,66420142015 stated: 87.0%2015 actual: 86.8% (-0.2 pp) -- n = 3,31620152016 stated: 87.3%2016 actual: 86.3% (-1.1 pp) -- n = 2,61820162017 stated: 87.2%2017 actual: 87.3% (+0.1 pp) -- n = 2,90420172018 stated: 87.7%2018 actual: 87.7% (+0.0 pp) -- n = 3,20920182019 stated: 87.9%2019 actual: 87.5% (-0.4 pp) -- n = 3,04220192020 stated: 87.9%2020 actual: 88.6% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 3,68920202021 stated: 87.5%2021 actual: 87.8% (+0.3 pp) -- n = 4,28020212022 stated: 87.8%2022 actual: 87.9% (+0.1 pp) -- n = 4,07920222023 stated: 87.7%2023 actual: 88.4% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 4,40020232024 stated: 87.8%2024 actual: 89.4% (+1.6 pp) -- n = 4,15120242025 stated: 88.2%2025 actual: 91.0% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 4,08220252026 stated: 88.0%2026 actual: 91.1% (+3.1 pp) -- n = 1,8992026

GBPUSD: 88.1% actual vs. 87.6% stated (+0.5 pp) across 44,333 calls

USDJPY

50607080901002014 stated: 86.9%2014 actual: 88.3% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 2,73620142015 stated: 86.8%2015 actual: 88.6% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 2,77320152016 stated: 87.1%2016 actual: 89.6% (+2.5 pp) -- n = 3,25320162017 stated: 87.4%2017 actual: 89.6% (+2.2 pp) -- n = 3,17320172018 stated: 87.3%2018 actual: 89.7% (+2.4 pp) -- n = 3,38020182019 stated: 87.6%2019 actual: 88.6% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 2,82720192020 stated: 88.2%2020 actual: 89.6% (+1.5 pp) -- n = 3,46320202021 stated: 88.0%2021 actual: 89.1% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 3,93220212022 stated: 88.0%2022 actual: 89.3% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 3,66720222023 stated: 87.9%2023 actual: 90.0% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 4,31620232024 stated: 88.1%2024 actual: 90.8% (+2.7 pp) -- n = 4,33620242025 stated: 88.6%2025 actual: 91.9% (+3.3 pp) -- n = 4,45120252026 stated: 88.1%2026 actual: 90.4% (+2.4 pp) -- n = 2,1242026

USDJPY: 89.8% actual vs. 87.7% stated (+2.0 pp) across 44,431 calls

AUDUSD

50607080901002014 stated: 86.9%2014 actual: 86.5% (-0.4 pp) -- n = 2,56620142015 stated: 87.0%2015 actual: 89.1% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 2,84920152016 stated: 87.1%2016 actual: 86.8% (-0.3 pp) -- n = 3,42120162017 stated: 87.3%2017 actual: 87.9% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 3,23320172018 stated: 86.9%2018 actual: 89.5% (+2.6 pp) -- n = 3,89020182019 stated: 87.8%2019 actual: 87.3% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 4,33620192020 stated: 87.9%2020 actual: 89.1% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 3,63120202021 stated: 87.6%2021 actual: 90.1% (+2.5 pp) -- n = 4,23820212022 stated: 88.0%2022 actual: 89.3% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 4,86820222023 stated: 88.1%2023 actual: 88.4% (+0.3 pp) -- n = 4,49320232024 stated: 87.9%2024 actual: 90.0% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 4,43520242025 stated: 88.4%2025 actual: 90.3% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 4,25020252026 stated: 88.2%2026 actual: 92.0% (+3.8 pp) -- n = 1,8012026

AUDUSD: 88.9% actual vs. 87.7% stated (+1.3 pp) across 48,011 calls

USDCAD

50607080901002014 stated: 86.5%2014 actual: 85.6% (-0.9 pp) -- n = 3,98620142015 stated: 86.9%2015 actual: 87.0% (+0.1 pp) -- n = 3,73120152016 stated: 87.2%2016 actual: 88.7% (+1.5 pp) -- n = 3,90820162017 stated: 87.2%2017 actual: 88.3% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 4,09920172018 stated: 87.5%2018 actual: 88.1% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 3,95920182019 stated: 87.6%2019 actual: 87.3% (-0.3 pp) -- n = 4,28920192020 stated: 87.5%2020 actual: 89.9% (+2.4 pp) -- n = 4,19020202021 stated: 87.6%2021 actual: 89.8% (+2.3 pp) -- n = 4,71020212022 stated: 88.0%2022 actual: 87.8% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 5,41520222023 stated: 87.9%2023 actual: 89.9% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 5,24420232024 stated: 87.9%2024 actual: 89.9% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 4,82420242025 stated: 88.5%2025 actual: 89.7% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 4,49420252026 stated: 88.4%2026 actual: 89.7% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 2,4332026

USDCAD: 88.6% actual vs. 87.6% stated (+1.0 pp) across 55,282 calls

USDCHF

50607080901002014 stated: 86.6%2014 actual: 84.5% (-2.1 pp) -- n = 2,75920142015 stated: 86.4%2015 actual: 84.7% (-1.8 pp) -- n = 3,73420152016 stated: 87.4%2016 actual: 86.8% (-0.6 pp) -- n = 3,37420162017 stated: 87.3%2017 actual: 88.4% (+1.1 pp) -- n = 3,69120172018 stated: 87.4%2018 actual: 86.6% (-0.9 pp) -- n = 4,10220182019 stated: 88.1%2019 actual: 87.0% (-1.1 pp) -- n = 4,32020192020 stated: 88.0%2020 actual: 89.6% (+1.6 pp) -- n = 4,19220202021 stated: 87.6%2021 actual: 87.6% (+0.0 pp) -- n = 4,69320212022 stated: 88.4%2022 actual: 88.3% (-0.1 pp) -- n = 4,52820222023 stated: 87.6%2023 actual: 89.2% (+1.6 pp) -- n = 4,08720232024 stated: 87.8%2024 actual: 90.3% (+2.5 pp) -- n = 4,25920242025 stated: 88.3%2025 actual: 89.6% (+1.3 pp) -- n = 3,97020252026 stated: 88.4%2026 actual: 90.6% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 1,9932026

USDCHF: 87.9% actual vs. 87.7% stated (+0.3 pp) across 49,702 calls

NZDUSD

50607080901002014 stated: 86.7%2014 actual: 85.8% (-0.8 pp) -- n = 2,85820142015 stated: 86.8%2015 actual: 87.5% (+0.8 pp) -- n = 2,83320152016 stated: 87.1%2016 actual: 86.9% (-0.2 pp) -- n = 3,27820162017 stated: 87.1%2017 actual: 87.2% (+0.1 pp) -- n = 3,42920172018 stated: 87.2%2018 actual: 87.8% (+0.6 pp) -- n = 4,36320182019 stated: 87.9%2019 actual: 88.1% (+0.3 pp) -- n = 4,45020192020 stated: 88.0%2020 actual: 88.9% (+0.9 pp) -- n = 4,01220202021 stated: 88.0%2021 actual: 90.0% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 4,38620212022 stated: 88.0%2022 actual: 87.5% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 4,40120222023 stated: 87.7%2023 actual: 88.9% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 4,31720232024 stated: 87.7%2024 actual: 89.8% (+2.1 pp) -- n = 4,71420242025 stated: 88.3%2025 actual: 90.2% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 4,54320252026 stated: 88.3%2026 actual: 89.3% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 1,7922026

NZDUSD: 88.4% actual vs. 87.6% stated (+0.8 pp) across 49,376 calls

EURJPY

50607080901002014 stated: 86.9%2014 actual: 88.7% (+1.8 pp) -- n = 2,69620142015 stated: 87.0%2015 actual: 89.0% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 2,66820152016 stated: 87.3%2016 actual: 91.2% (+4.0 pp) -- n = 3,08220162017 stated: 87.3%2017 actual: 89.0% (+1.7 pp) -- n = 3,25920172018 stated: 87.4%2018 actual: 90.3% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 3,20220182019 stated: 87.7%2019 actual: 87.9% (+0.2 pp) -- n = 3,10720192020 stated: 88.0%2020 actual: 89.9% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 3,48220202021 stated: 87.7%2021 actual: 88.4% (+0.7 pp) -- n = 3,72120212022 stated: 88.4%2022 actual: 88.5% (+0.1 pp) -- n = 3,69620222023 stated: 88.2%2023 actual: 87.8% (-0.4 pp) -- n = 4,25020232024 stated: 88.2%2024 actual: 89.2% (+1.0 pp) -- n = 3,85320242025 stated: 88.6%2025 actual: 89.7% (+1.1 pp) -- n = 3,76920252026 stated: 88.5%2026 actual: 91.2% (+2.6 pp) -- n = 1,7312026

EURJPY: 89.2% actual vs. 87.8% stated (+1.4 pp) across 42,516 calls

GBPJPY

50607080901002014 stated: 87.2%2014 actual: 89.7% (+2.5 pp) -- n = 2,92820142015 stated: 87.1%2015 actual: 88.3% (+1.2 pp) -- n = 3,13220152016 stated: 87.4%2016 actual: 91.6% (+4.2 pp) -- n = 3,49620162017 stated: 87.4%2017 actual: 88.8% (+1.4 pp) -- n = 3,11620172018 stated: 87.8%2018 actual: 90.6% (+2.8 pp) -- n = 3,39520182019 stated: 87.8%2019 actual: 89.4% (+1.6 pp) -- n = 2,82120192020 stated: 87.8%2020 actual: 89.7% (+1.9 pp) -- n = 3,21720202021 stated: 87.6%2021 actual: 91.1% (+3.4 pp) -- n = 3,95620212022 stated: 88.1%2022 actual: 84.0% (-4.2 pp) -- n = 2,38920222023 stated: 88.1%2023 actual: 90.1% (+2.0 pp) -- n = 2,54220232024 stated: 88.2%2024 actual: 89.7% (+1.5 pp) -- n = 3,04720242025 stated: 88.3%2025 actual: 87.8% (-0.5 pp) -- n = 2,94020252026 stated: 88.5%2026 actual: 88.9% (+0.4 pp) -- n = 1,5262026

GBPJPY: 89.4% actual vs. 87.7% stated (+1.6 pp) across 38,505 calls